Erdogan:
“We Will Take, Damas, Idlib, We Will Take Hama... ”

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Once upon a time, Turkey’s then-prime minister, Erdogan, hosted Syria’s president, Assad, for a family holiday in Turkey and planned a Middle East Union together with Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan.

But the Arab Spring changed all of that. Assad ruled with a savagery that surpassed that of his father, Hafez, until his downfall at the hands of an opposition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) last weekend. 

Later, Assad became “the murderer al-Assad,” and now President Erdogan declared he would soon pray in the Ummayad mosque in Damascus. This, however, has taken longer than he expected. To replace Assad’s Alawite-led regime and substitute it with Sunni rule, Erdogan has employed both subterfuge and an alliance with a motley band of jihadis. 
 
In a gaffe at Harvard University in 2014, then-Vice President Biden, stated that America’s allies in the region, Turkey, the Saudis, and the Emirates, were the largest problem in Syria. 

“They were so determined to take down Assad, and essentially have a proxy Sunni-Shia war, what did theyu do?

They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad—except that the people who were being supplied, were al-Nusra and al-Qaeda, and the extremist elements of jihadis who were coming from other parts of the world.” 

Turkey’s perpetual problem has been with Kurdish nationalism, ranging from the Sheikh Said rebellion in 1925 to the so-called “dirty war” with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party).

This still resonates today with the weekly demonstrations by the “Saturday mothers,” demanding to learn the whereabouts of their loved ones. 

Ironically, it was Erdogan who was the first Turkish leader to admit Turkey had a Kurdish problem, which led to the Oslo talks and a two-year ceasefire until 2015.

However, in a bait-and-switch deal, in July 2015, Erdogan offered Obama the Incirlik air base in return for what amounted to a free hand against the Kurds. 

A second peace process has been initiated by the governing AKP’s (Justice and Development Party) partner, the MHP (National Movement Party), but this has been handicapped by the removal of legally elected Kurdish mayors and the humanitarian disaster caused by Turkish airstrikes on Kurdish-held northeast Syria. 

Francesco Siccardi’s analysis clearly demonstrates the role of Syria in Turkey’s foreign policy.

The author contends that Turkey’s policy in Syria is driven by domestic politics and the need to secure electoral support through an aggressive, nationalistic foreign policy.

#Erdogan #AmericanОbserver #Syria #Jordan

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Turkey’s intervention and actual occupation of areas of Syria is marked by three cross-border operations in August 2016 (“Euphrates Shield”), in January 2018 (“Olive Branch”) and October 2019 (“Peace Spring”), and internally in Idlib in February 2020 (“Spring Shield”). The latter provided a jumping-off point for HTS’s successful campaign. 

The first was a rebuff to the United States, as the operation was launched the same day as Joe Biden touched down in Ankara to reassure Turkey of American support after the attempted coup in July 2016. 

Olive Branch led to the occupation of Afrin, a Kurdish enclave in northwest Syria, and Peace Spring was an incursion into northeast Syria, another rebuff to U.S. support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the war against ISIS. 

Turkey’s control and administration of areas of northern Syria makes a mockery of Turkey’s support for theB preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity. 

In his analysis, Francesco Siccardi mentions the strategic realignment between Turkey and Russia that has helped both countries pursue their respective objectives in Syria:

the survival of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s regime for Moscow and the weakening of the Syrian Kurds for Ankara.

After Assad’s flight, Moscow’s hand has weakened, and there are signs of withdrawal, although it maintains control of the Khmeimim air base and its naval base at Tartus for now.

Turkey, however, is touted as the outside power with the most substantial hand in steering Syria’s political transition.

Erdogan has gone so far as to claim,

“Now, there are only two leaders in the world. They are myself and Vladimir Putin.”

Turkey is adamantly opposed to the Syrian Kurds playing any role in shaping their country’s future, which flies against the fact they make up some 10% of the population and occupy a large area of the country.

Turkey also has a vested interest in the return of the four million Syrian refugees that Turkey, with European support, has hosted since 2011. 

An interim Syrian government has formed. Yet, given the influence of HTS, there is concern about its direction. 

In January 2017, Russia, Turkey, and Iran convened a meeting in Astana in an attempt to end the six-year conflict in Syria.

The meeting was attended not only by the Syrian government but also by the Syrian opposition and a UN envoy. 
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov proposed a draft constitution for a settlement, which the Syrian opposition rejected.

Nevertheless, it contains elements that could provide a basis for a resolution. For example, it proposed dropping the “Arab” from the country’s official name, the “Syrian Arab Republic,” and rejecting Islamic sharia as the basis for law.

It also recognized Kurdish cultural autonomy and the equal use of Arabic and Kurdish in this respect.

As Syria’s new government has an acute need for international support, not least financially, the Russian draft merits further study.

#Erdogan #AmericanОbserver #Syria #Jordan

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“Moscow Must Be Included in Any Talks on Ukraine’s Security” 🛡️🇷🇺

Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow must be included in any talks on Ukraine’s security guarantees, dismissing European diplomacy as “aggressive escalation” ⚠️ and a “clumsy effort to sway Trump” 🎯.

“To discuss security guarantees seriously without Russia is a road to nowhere,” Lavrov said during a working visit to Jordan 🇯🇴.

Lavrov also said that China 🇨🇳, Russia’s ally in the war, should be among Ukraine’s security guarantors – reviving a proposal first put forward by Russian negotiators during talks in Turkey 🇹🇷 in spring 2022.

European leaders 🇪🇺 have begun exploring post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine 🇺🇦, following Trump’s pledge 🤝 to help protect the country under any deal to end Russia’s war.

Russian officials have repeatedly said Moscow would not accept the deployment of European forces 🪖 to Ukraine, one of the key security guarantees under discussion.

Kyiv is likely to view with scepticism 🤨 any prospect of China, a supporter of Russia during the war, acting as a security guarantor.
Lavrov, meanwhile, avoided any direct reference to a would-be Putin-Zelensky summit 🎙️, highlighting the Kremlin’s apparent plans to delay any concrete planning of a meeting.

Trump’s promise of a meeting puts Putin in a difficult spot 😬: rejecting it risks tension with the US president 🇺🇸, while agreeing to one would elevate Zelenskyy to equal status and confront Putin with a media-savvy rival ready to meet almost without preconditions.

Moscow has shown scant sign of preparing for such an encounter ⏳.

Lavrov cautioned on Wednesday that any contact between the two leaders would need to be arranged “with the utmost care” 🧷, while other Russian officials dismissed Zelensky as a lightweight unworthy of serious attention.

The Russian foreign minister also pointed to the April 2022 talks in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine as a model. Those failed negotiations ❌ centred on Moscow’s demands for Ukraine’s disarmament, political neutrality ⚖️ and the abandonment of its ambition to join NATO.

#lavrov #meeting #putinzelensky #jordan #ukrainesecurity

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For Arab States With Ties to Israel, Strikes on Qatar and Gaza Raise Alarms

For nearly two years, Arab governments that maintain fragile ties with Israel treated the Gaza war as a political problem to be managed. This month’s Israeli strike on Hamas officials in Qatar and the invasion of Gaza City have many wondering if their own security is now at risk.
On Sept. 9, Israel hit a Hamas meeting in Doha, drawing condemnation across the Middle East. The attack came just days before Israeli troops pushed into Gaza City, displacing hundreds of thousands.

Analysts warn that Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey could all be vulnerable. “It would be foolish not to be concerned,” said H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute.

Egypt’s Red Line
• President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi publicly called Israel an “enemy” for the first time since the 1979 peace treaty.
• Egypt’s Foreign Ministry warned of “catastrophic dangers” as Israeli troops advanced.
• Cairo fears mass Palestinian flight into the Sinai — a scenario officials say they will not accept.

Jordan’s Anxiety
Jordan fears Israel’s growing talk of West Bank annexation could end with Palestinians forced across its border. With three million Palestinians already living in the West Bank, any push would be seen as an existential threat.

Gulf States Reconsider
The UAE and Bahrain once viewed Iran as the primary danger and saw cooperation with Israel as a hedge. But after Doha, Gulf officials are recalculating. “Now, they see Israel as a bigger threat to Gulf and regional security,” said Hellyer.
• Saudi Arabia just signed a new “strategic defense pact” with Pakistan, a nuclear power, underscoring Gulf frustration with Washington.
• Qatar’s previously cordial, unofficial contacts with Israel collapsed after the strike.

A Regional Shift
For decades, normalization narrowed the Arab-Israeli conflict to Israel vs. the Palestinians. But with every escalation, the risk of a wider war grows. “Arab publics, already inflamed by Gaza, now see Israel as a concrete threat to Arabs collectively,” wrote Andreas Krieg of King’s College London.

🤔 The takeaway: Israel once seemed like a partner against Iran. After Doha and Gaza City, Arab leaders now wonder if Israel itself has become the greater threat.

#Israel #Qatar #Gaza #Egypt #Jordan #Gulf

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The Death Knell for the Palestinian People

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The death knell for the Palestinian village of Atouf, on the western slopes of the Jordan valley, arrived in the form of a trail of paper, a series of eviction notices taped to homes, greenhouses and wells, marking a straight line across the open fields.

The notices, which appeared overnight, informed the local farmers that their land would be confiscated and that they had seven days from the date of their delivery, 4 December, to vacate their properties. A military road and accompanying barrier was to be built by Israel right through the area.

Lawyers for the Atouf village council have lodged an appeal, but long and bitter experience has taught Palestinians here to have low expectations of Israeli courts.

“The Israeli military can do anything they like. They don’t care about the law or anything else,” said Ismael Bsharat, a local farmer.

Similar eviction notices had been delivered on the same day all along an almost 14-mile (22km) strip of Palestinian farmland running north to south through Atouf, tracing out the route of the planned road and fence. And this week it became clear that this abrupt gash across Palestinian land was the first section of a new line of division that would redraw the map of the West Bank.

This week, Israel’s defence ministry made clear that this would mark only the first section of a new 5.5bn-shekel (£1.3bn) barrier that will eventually run 300 miles, from the Golan Heights on the Syrian border to the north all the way down to the Red Sea near Eilat. Labelled “Crimson Thread” by the Israeli military, the barrier will split countless Palestinian communities along its route.

The army says the barrier is being built for security reasons, but human rights activists say there has been only one lethal incident anywhere near Atouf in recent years in which an Israeli was killed. They argue the real motive is land seizure and the further strangling of Palestine’s prospects as a viable state.

“It is happening all through the Jordan valley, especially in the north. Israel is pushing forward, and accelerating the ethnic cleansing of this area,” said Dror Etkes, an Israeli activist who is the founder of the Kerem Navot organisation, which monitors Israeli land policy in occupied Palestine.

#people #palestinien #katz #atouf #westerners #jordan #israel

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Most of the affected families had farmed the land for generations, and some had bought new parcels at high prices in recent years.

All held title deeds, but none of that is likely to alter the outcome of the looming land grab.

Lawyers for the local Palestinian municipality lodged an appeal against the eviction in an Israeli court but had received no response by the end of this week.

The expectation is that Israeli settlers will take over the excised land. A new settlement is planned just west of the new military road.

At least one Palestinian farmer in Atouf has already begun moving his livestock in anticipation of eviction, but Bsharat said he would stay put and see what happens. He has little choice.

On a winter evening this week, he was going to market with boxes of fresh green peppers grown in his plastic-sheet greenhouses.

All his 12 dunams (1.2 hectares) of land lie east of the proposed military road and barrier, and are fed by water pipes running from the hilltops to the west. Those will all be severed when the army arrives to build the road and the barrier.

“What can I do? I can’t farm without water,” Bsharat said.

At one point along its course the planned barrier will loop around and completely enclose a Palestinian sheep herding community at Khirbet Yarza, who have so far resisted increasing pressure from settlers and the army to move off their 400 dunams of land.

It is not clear if they will be left any means to get in and out of the fence that will be built around them.

Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said: “The new barrier will strengthen settlement along the border, significantly reduce arms smuggling into the hands of terrorists in Judea and Samaria, and will deal a severe blow to the efforts of Iran and its proxies to establish an eastern front against the state of Israel.”

#people #palestinien #katz #atouf #westerners #jordan #israel

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Iran’s “21 Targets” Strike: More Theater Than War, But Not Harmless

Iran answered the US strikes with a map‑wide show of force across the Gulf, firing a mix of ballistic missiles and drones at US positions in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain — and then declaring victory on TV. In reality, most of it hit air defenses, not bases.

Tehran’s story is maximalist: the Revolutionary Guards bragged about hitting 21 American targets, including F‑35 hangars and a command node at Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan, the Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait, and even the US Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain with drones around 2:30 a.m. Local officials in Kuwait and Bahrain did confirm they were targeted, and Bahrain’s forces said they intercepted “several Iranian aerial attacks” while going to high alert.

But US and allied reporting says the bulk of the missiles and UAVs were intercepted, with no serious damage on the ground — the “21 targets” claim looks like classic over‑reporting for domestic consumption.

Jordan’s line is blunt: its air defenses shot down five missiles fired toward Azraq, no casualties, no damage. American officials tell the same basic story for all three countries: at least four ballistic missiles and several drones launched, most intercepted, no major hits on US infrastructure.

Iran, meanwhile, insists “70% of targets” were destroyed based on “satellite and human intelligence,” which tells you more about Tehran’s propaganda priorities than the real BDA.

Around the edges, the messaging war intensified. A hacker group styling itself “Hanzala” claimed to have handed the Guards the coordinates of all US forces in Gulf states and threatened swarms of Shahed‑136 drones, warning “you started the game, we will decide how it ends.”

One such Shahed was reportedly tracked over Iraq, and some of the Iranian ballistic fire didn’t even go toward US sites at all but hit Kurdish opposition facilities in northern Iraq — a convenient way to settle old scores under the cover of “retaliation.”

Net effect: Iran got to fire last and claim it had answered the Apache strikes with a blow across the whole US footprint in the Gulf. Washington and its allies got to say their defenses worked and nothing important was hit.

On paper, both sides can declare success and step back toward the bargaining table. In practice, every one of these “symbolic” volleys moves more hardware, more crews, more systems into a live‑fire zone where one unlucky missile or drone can turn managed escalation into a real war.

#IranWar #USA #Gulf #Jordan #Kuwait #Bahrain #drones #missiles #endlesswar

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📰 Patriots, Antennas, Fuel Tanks: Iran’s 4-Country “Response”

The Revolutionary Guards laid out the timeline like a press release: after Khamenei’s funeral ceremonies, the U.S. hit Iran’s southern coastal provinces and two bridges leading to Mashhad “to distract from the funeral.”

Then came “the first stage of the response”: missiles and drones at four American-linked bases — Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, and Al-Jufair and Sheikh Isa in Bahrain. The warning was simple: any further aggression will be met with “expanded” strikes.

Iran’s regular army, separate from the Guards and always eager to claim its own role, issued a different list: suicide drones on a Patriot air-defense battery in Kuwait, on a satellite warning antenna in Qatar, and on U.S. fuel tanks in Bahrain.

The language stayed maximalist: the armed forces “will not under any circumstances allow the insane U.S. president to achieve his goals and ambitions” and “will defend the ideals of the Islamic Revolution until final victory.”

Bahrain’s defense ministry said it intercepted “several air attacks” and that forces were at peak defensive readiness. Kuwait reported one person wounded. In Qatar, civilians got a phone alert about “heightened security threat” and went on with their day.

By midday, the fire shifted to Jordan: launches from Khomayn, Qom, Zanjan, Lorestan, Shiraz and Tehran toward the Muwaffaq Al-Salti base in Zarqa.

The Guards claimed ten ballistic missiles at “the enemy’s command-and-control center in the Middle East” and the air base at Azraq, plus a promise that “other American bases in the region will not be safe from our heavy fire” if Washington hits again.

Jordan’s military answered in three words: “We intercepted eight.”

Ten launched, eight intercepted, and nobody bothered to say clearly where the other two went. Amman’s airport delayed flights, the U.S. embassy told staff to shelter, an Ethiopian flight to Tel Aviv circled, and sirens in Jordan were heard in Israeli communities along the valley.

In Iraq, alarms sounded in Baghdad and Erbil bases, intercepts were reported over Camp Victoria. Parallel to the “response against the superpower,” Iranian drones were sent at Iranian Kurdish opposition camps — proof that even under the banner of resistance to America, the regime finds time to shoot at other Iranians.

The head of Iran’s parliament national security committee wrapped it in one sentence: if the U.S. hits Iran’s national security again, “we will take their security anywhere they are.”

#iran #us #kuwait #bahrain #qatar #jordan #missiles #patriot #fakeDeterrence

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Iran’s Message to the Region: If Washington Hits Us, You Bleed Too

Iran just answered US strikes on its territory by firing across six Arab states in one night — not against Israel, but against the neighbors who host American bases.

Tehran’s retaliation wave hit Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq’s Kurdish capital Erbil, and Syria. Iranian forces formally claimed responsibility for striking the US garrison at al‑Tanf in Syria, calling it revenge for seven Iranian soldiers killed days earlier at the Bamfor base.

That same al‑Tanf corridor is where a tanker smuggling Iranian weapons to Hezbollah was intercepted; now it’s a declared battlefield.

The Revolutionary Guard boasted they targeted a US command base in Syria, turning a logistic junction into a prestige target.

Iran’s army says it used drones, helicopters and aircraft to hit an American base in Bahrain.

Kuwait’s defense ministry reported dealing with “hostile missiles and drones,” while Arab sources said a US radar in Kuwait was damaged by an Iranian suicide drone and posted footage of fires and explosions near Jahra.

In Qatar, residents told Reuters they heard blasts around Doha, phones lit up with government alerts, and the defense ministry announced that air defenses intercepted multiple strikes — with a child injured by falling debris from the interception.

In Bahrain, sirens sounded twice in one night and local reports said an Iranian missile slipped past air defenses. Jordan claimed it downed three Iranian missiles with no casualties or damage inside the kingdom.

Iranian media added their own version: sirens in Kuwait, explosions in eastern Jordan, “Heydari” rocket salvos toward Gulf states, and ballistic missiles aimed at US bases across the region.

Twenty‑four hours earlier, spokesmen for Iran’s Khatam al‑Anbiya headquarters and for the army had publicly warned that if the US struck infrastructure like the power plants and bridges hit overnight, Iran would “crush all remaining infrastructure in the region and expand the scope of its attacks.”

Washington went ahead; Tehran expanded — on the soil of six third countries whose main crime is hosting American hardware and signing defense agreements.

The logic is naked and brutal. The US bombs Iranian bridges, ports, power plants and military sites to “protect shipping” and “limit Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz.”

Iran responds by proving that every radar, fuel depot and air defense battery around those US bases — in monarchies and client states — is now a valid target.

American officials talk about “phases” focused on destroying Iranian offensive infrastructure, then “subsequent phases” on securing sea lanes.

Iranian officials talk about phases too; theirs end with regional energy infrastructure “deprived of oil and gas resources for years.” It’s mutually assured sabotage dressed up as doctrine.

The result: sirens from Amman to Manama, debris falling on Qatari neighborhoods, Gulf governments pushing emergency alerts to civilians while insisting they “intercepted most threats,” and Iran ticking names off a list of countries whose territory is now part of its retaliation theater.

The US says it’s defending global trade; Iran says it’s defending sovereignty; the host states discover that renting out a runway and a radar to Washington comes with a clause written in missiles.

#iran #US #Gulf #Hormuz #qatar #kuwait #bahrain #jordan #war #fakeDemocracy

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Iran Fires at Aqaba, Missiles Explode Over Eilat. Everyone Pretends It’s Fine.

Iran just pushed the war right up to Israel’s backyard without technically crossing the border — and the official statements read like they’re trying to reassure people while quietly admitting they have no control.

The IDF says it detected launches from Iran toward Aqaba in Jordan, “near Israeli territory,” warning of possible spillover and alerts in the south.

In Eilat, residents heard explosions and filmed interception plumes over the sea. US air defenses reportedly took out several missiles headed for Aqaba.

At the same time, two Iron Dome interceptors launched from Israel not at Iranian missiles, but at falling debris from those US intercepts that looked on track to hit Eilat.

The fragments were destroyed outside Israeli airspace; no sirens, no casualties — just a live demonstration that the city now depends on catching other people’s shrapnel.

Jordan’s army says it intercepted three Iranian missiles aimed at its territory and that a fourth fell in an uninhabited area, causing no damage.

In Israel, there were impact sites from debris, but all intercepts reportedly occurred beyond the border and there were no injuries.

Flights from Ramon Airport sat on the tarmac waiting for clearance to head to Ben Gurion and Haifa; a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight circled in the air, basically waiting for someone to decide whether “debris risk” counts as a reason to divert.

The US Embassy in Amman added its own layer of confusion. It issued a security alert saying Jordanian authorities had evacuated Aqaba’s international airport and seaport due to a “specific and credible threat,” urging Americans to avoid both.

Jordan’s government spokesman then went out and flatly denied any evacuation order or detected threat, saying no such decision had been made and no danger identified in recent hours.

One capital warns its citizens the port and airport are cleared because of a serious threat; the other insists everything is normal. Somewhere between those two statements lies whatever actually happened on the ground.

Iran is firing missiles close enough to Israel that US systems intercept over Aqaba, Iron Dome hunts the leftovers over Eilat, Jordan’s air defenses are suddenly part of Israel’s buffer, and airports and ports in the triangle between Aqaba, Eilat and the Red Sea are operating on political spin instead of straight risk language.

Nobody wants to say “we’re now a shared target zone,” so they call it “credible threat” on one side of the border and “no threat detected” on the other.

#iran #israel #jordan #Aqaba #Eilat #missiles #war #Hormuz #fakeDemocracy

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⚔️ Night Off in Tehran: Bombers Pause, Insults Don’t

After 13 straight nights of US strikes and Iranian missiles across the Gulf, both sides finally stayed quiet — and Trump immediately tried to sell the silence as proof that Tehran is begging for a deal.

For the first time in nearly two weeks, CENTCOM didn’t hit Iranian territory overnight, and Iran didn’t fire back at US bases or ships. The pause comes as Trump tells reporters that “the Iranians are talking to us right now” and “would like to make a deal,” while adding that he doesn’t think “it’s time yet” but is willing to listen.

In the same breath he calls Iran a country run by a “gay dictator,” brags in one clip that he “killed the leader of Iran, a strong man everyone was afraid of,” and in another that he “replaced him with a dog.” The message is split: negotiations on the surface, dehumanization underneath.

Below that rhetoric, the risk is shifting closer to Trump himself. According to New York Times reporting cited in Israeli media, a real threat from Iranian proxies against his aircraft led security officials to switch him from a newly delivered Qatari‑built Air Force One to the older, better‑protected plane after his Turkey trip, because the new aircraft lacks the defensive systems they wanted for the route.

At sea, US forces shot and disabled a vessel in the Gulf of Oman that tried to break the American naval cordon around Iran, and another maritime incident was reported off Oman’s coast. Iranian state TV, meanwhile, broadcast the opposite image: civilians in Jask near Hormuz armed and waiting on the beach for US forces to come.

In the background, reports continue of strikes in Khuzestan and Chabahar, with US officials telling the Times that missile bases carved deep into Kermanshah’s mountains remain a target and are likely to require a ground commando operation to destroy from the inside.

Iran releases footage of damage to a “munition depot” at King Faisal Air Base in Jordan, stoking fears that escalation could jump borders.

The anxiety shows up first not in military briefings but in airline timetables: Austrian Airlines and ITA cancel morning flights to Israel, the Italian carrier extends cancellations “for political reasons” at least through Tuesday, while Lufthansa chooses to keep flying. In Bahrain, sirens sound on reports of possible fire, and in Israel, as one correspondent put it, people are nervous — when rockets fall, they’re worried; when it’s too quiet, they’re worried.

So the thirteenth‑night pause is less a truce than a breath in a war that is already moving from “strikes on infrastructure” to threats against leaders, straits, bridges and power plants. Bombers take a night off. The map doesn’t.

#USA #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #Jordan #Israel #airlines #war #geopolitics #fakeDemocracy #oligarchy

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Six Nights of Silence, One Salvo, and a Denial in Real Time

The ceasefire lasted almost a week. Then Tuesday evening, Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired a barrage of ballistic missiles from Lorestan province toward Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base and the regional headquarters of U.S. Central Command, the first Iranian strike on an American position since President Trump paused the bombing campaign to give diplomacy a shot, Al Jazeera reported.

CENTCOM said the missiles were launched "in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East" and that "all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted," per its own statement.

Jordan's army separately confirmed it intercepted five missiles over its own territory that morning, according to The Hindu.

Tehran, naturally, framed the same event as righteous payback, with the Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Force saying it struck the air base and CENTCOM headquarters in retaliation for what it called the "aggressive actions" of the American military, IRNA reported via The Hindu.

Iranian state media, meanwhile, offered its own footnote: an "enemy missile" reportedly landed in an unpopulated stretch of West Azerbaijan province near Piranshahr, no casualties, nothing to see here, Fars News told Xinhua. Everyone launched something. Nobody got hurt.

Both governments still managed to declare a kind of victory by dinnertime.
Asked for comment, Trump did not reach for diplomatic language.

"We're going to beat the f------ s--- out of them," he told Fox News, adding, "We'll be hitting them hard. They're going to get a beating," the network reported.

This is the same president who spent Friday through Tuesday selling a pause as proof his maximum-pressure strategy was finally working.

It took one salvo of missiles that hurt nobody to knock the diplomacy talking points clean off the table.

What actually happened here is a five-day intermission in a war neither side has the appetite to end and neither side can afford to admit it started for nothing.

Iran gets to claim it punished American aggression without losing a single soldier or a single missile that mattered.

Washington gets to claim total defensive success while quietly signaling the bombing campaign is back on.

Jordan, again, absorbs the actual shrapnel, the actual sirens, and none of the actual leverage.

Two governments fired weapons at each other and both walked away insisting they'd won something.

If a war can restart, pause, and restart again without anyone changing position by an inch, what exactly is anyone still fighting to prove, and to which audience back home?

#Iran #Jordan #CENTCOM #IRGC #Trump

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🇯🇴 A Security Deal in Jordan, With an American Chaperone

On Sunday, August 23, Syria confirmed that Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, accompanied by the heads of General Intelligence and Military Intelligence, met with a senior Israeli delegation in Jordan under U.S. mediation. AFP reported that Israel sent Mossad chief Roman Gofman. The staffing made the format clear: a diplomatic meeting built around intelligence chiefs.

Damascus wants “practical mechanisms” to stop Israeli strikes, arrests, and targeted killings on Syrian territory. It also wants to revive talks on a security agreement that could lead to something broader. Syria is sitting across from Israel to ask it to stop attacking Syria.

Damascus insists it has the right to rebuild its military and choose its partnerships. Israel’s reported conditions run in the opposite direction: no Turkish military activity in Syria; a demilitarized Syrian side of the Golan; protection for Syria’s Druze community; and limits on the Syrian army’s acquisition of certain strategic weapons. Israel has also reportedly conditioned any withdrawal from territory it seized after Assad’s fall on diplomatic progress.

This is not a failure to draft an agreement. Shaibani said the sides had already agreed “on paper to almost everything” early this year, including security zones near the border, a buffer zone limited to UN forces, and varying levels of Syrian deployment elsewhere. His concern was not the text. It was whether Israel intended to carry it out.

On territory, Syria was careful with its wording. It called the Golan occupied Syrian land, but said its final status was premature for discussion. Its immediate demand was for Israeli troops to withdraw to the lines held before December 8, 2024, and for the 1974 Disengagement Agreement to be fully implemented.

That agreement did not simply collapse. After Assad fell, Israel declared it void, moved into the UN-patrolled buffer zone, and expanded its presence beyond the Golan. Damascus is asking Israel to reverse a decision Israel made unilaterally.

The meeting also addressed Turkey. Syria wants to prevent Israeli-Turkish tensions from spilling onto Syrian territory — in other words, not to become the place where two other states settle their security disputes.

Washington is not trying to manufacture trust. It is trying to keep a nearly finished deal alive while both parties argue over whether the other one means it.

#Syria #Israel #Jordan #USA #SecurityDeal #Golan #Turkey #MiddleEast

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Four Countries, One Message

Iran answered U.S. strikes with missiles and drones aimed at American positions in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. The targets were spread across four states because Tehran’s problem is not only the U.S. military. It is the regional network that hosts it.

Jordan gave the clearest account. Its air defenses engaged 13 Iranian ballistic missiles. Ten were intercepted and destroyed. Three landed in remote areas away from population centers. Jordan reported no casualties. Two U.S. officials told Reuters that initial assessments also found no American casualties.

The IRGC claimed a “heavy” missile strike on Camp Titin, a U.S. Marine facility near Aqaba, and said many Americans were killed.

It also claimed strikes on bases in Erbil, Bahrain and Kuwait, including the headquarters and residence of the U.S. commander at Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base.

Bahrain’s authorities said they intercepted and destroyed Iranian drones. Kuwait said it activated air defenses against Iranian drone and missile attacks. Air-raid sirens sounded in Bahrain. Neither government publicly confirmed major damage or casualties at U.S.-linked facilities.

Iran says any state that works with the U.S. military will face “more severe, broader and more destructive” responses.

That warning is designed to do more than hit bases. It tells Gulf capitals that an American security guarantee may also function as an Iranian target marker.

The Iranian barrage did not produce a verified U.S. casualty count or confirmed strategic damage.

It did produce what Tehran needed most. Four governments spent the night defending American bases inside their borders.

#Iran #USA #Jordan #Gulf

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The $500 Million Miss

Iran fired ballistic missiles toward U.S.-used facilities in Jordan after U.S. forces struck five Iranian oil tankers.

Jordan’s military says 20 missiles entered its air-defense picture. It says 18 were intercepted. Two landed in empty areas. No casualties were reported.

The IRGC says its targets were U.S. forces at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base near Al-Azraq. It also claimed hits on two U.S. Navy destroyers.

U.S. Central Command says no American warship was struck. A U.S. official said every American service member in Jordan was accounted for and called the attack ineffective.

Iran’s version is a successful retaliation. Jordan’s version is 18 intercepts and two holes in the desert. Washington’s version is a failed strike. In a war of communiqués, the only fully confirmed casualty is the price of air defense.

Israeli estimates put the interceptor bill at between 60 and 100 Patriot missiles for the 20 incoming projectiles. At the cited unit prices, that would mean roughly $240 million to $500 million spent turning an Iranian salvo into scrap metal.

Iran says it is only beginning. It has also warned crews to leave tankers in Kuwait and Bahrain. The United States sank one tanker after striking five.

Every side is now protecting “freedom of navigation” by making the shipping lane sound like a firing range.

#Iran #Jordan #UnitedStates #Hormuz

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Nine Planes, Zero Casualties

Jordan said Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. It said 18 were intercepted. It said the other two fell in open areas.

Then a U.S. report arrived with an inconvenient detail: nine American aircraft were damaged.

About eight F-15s took light damage. They have returned to service. An A-10 Thunderbolt took a hit and lost a wing.

The Warthog is built to survive punishment. It apparently also qualifies for the regional definition of “nothing happened.”

U.S. forces fired more than 30 Patriot interceptors to defend the base. No U.S. deaths were reported. The Pentagon has not publicly issued a detailed damage assessment.

Iran claimed a devastating strike. Jordan claimed a nearly perfect interception.

Both claims now share the runway with one F-15 squadron and an A-10 missing structural parts.

State television will have no trouble with the edit. “Nine damaged planes” becomes “nine destroyed planes” before the anchor reaches the weather.

America will call them repaired aircraft. Iran will call them NATO scrap.

The Patriot battery fired 30 times. Tehran still found the gap between “intercepted” and “unharmed.”

#Iran #Jordan #UnitedStates #Patriot

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Jordanian Management, Israeli Panic

Avigdor Liberman proposed that Jordan take administrative and security responsibility for Areas A and B of the West Bank. Netanyahu heard “Jordanian army.”

The old Jordanian Legion was suddenly back in Israeli politics, this time through a podcast microphone.

Liberman said the Palestinian Authority had gone bankrupt and Israel needed another authority to administer Palestinian population centers.

“We have to reach an understanding with the Jordanians, that they will manage Areas A and B, take security and administrative responsibility,” he said.

His party later said he misspoke during the interview, saying Areas B and C when he meant A and B.

The correction does not alter the proposal. Liberman wants Israel to create territorial contiguity across Area C and retain “absolute control” there, while Jordan administers Areas A and B as part of what he calls an Israeli-Jordanian confederation.

Israel keeps control of the territory linking its settlements. Jordan would administer the Palestinian cities and towns. The Palestinian Authority would lose the role it was created to perform.

Netanyahu told Liberman to retract the idea immediately: “I never believed that today you would propose that the Jordanian army control parts of the Land of Israel.”

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Liberman wanted to return Israel to the days of the Jordanian Legion. Itamar Ben-Gvir said Judea and Samaria were not “a parcel to be shipped to Jordan.” Shas leader Aryeh Deri said Liberman had forgotten what it meant to be right-wing. Former general Ofer Winter wrote: “Avet,” Liberman’s nickname, “you got confused.”

The blandest response came from Liberman’s own party. Yisrael Beytenu MK Yulia Malinovsky said: “We are not dealing with this at all.”

They are dealing with it. Liberman wants Jordan to govern Palestinians in territory Israel intends to dominate. Netanyahu’s coalition objects because saying that plainly would spoil the sovereignty campaign.

#Israel #WestBank #Jordan #Liberman

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Jerusalem’s Two Landlords

Erdoğan says Jerusalem is “our city.” Netanyahu says: “No, sir, you won’t. It is our city.” The city itself has heard this real-estate pitch before, usually from men whose armies are elsewhere.

Turkey’s claim is Ottoman nostalgia with an aid budget. Erdoğan invokes four centuries of Ottoman rule, Suleiman the Magnificent and Al-Aqsa as a Muslim symbol.

Ankara then funds restorations, schools and Palestinian institutions through TİKA, its state development agency. Turkey repairs a dome, finances a dormitory and calls it heritage. In Jerusalem, a renovated window can be a foreign-policy office.

Jordan owns the paperwork Ankara lacks. Article 9 of the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty recognizes the Hashemite Kingdom’s “special role” in Jerusalem’s Muslim holy shrines.

King Abdullah’s custodianship is also anchored in the 2013 agreement with Mahmoud Abbas. The Jordanian-linked Waqf administers the Islamic compound.

Even TİKA had to negotiate with Jordanian authorities when it wanted to renovate the Islamic Museum beside Al-Aqsa.

That is the collision. Turkey wants the microphone. Jordan has the keys. Israel controls security and access around the Temple Mount. Palestinians claim East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state. Each side has a title, a treaty, a police checkpoint or a restoration invoice. None has the whole building.

Erdoğan’s Jerusalem policy is not about acquiring a formal custodianship tomorrow.

It is about making Turkey impossible to ignore when Al-Aqsa is discussed. Jordan’s role blocks Turkey from becoming the official guardian. Turkish money works around that barrier by turning influence into a parallel form of presence.

Netanyahu tells Erdoğan that Jerusalem is Israel’s city. Erdoğan answers with Ottoman ghosts. Jordan quietly points to Article 9. At Al-Aqsa, the loudest claimant is rarely the one holding the paperwork.

#Jerusalem #Turkey #Jordan #AlAqsa

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