The Arab American Political Action Committee said on Monday it will not endorse Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump citing what it called their "blind support" for Israel in wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

The Nov. 5 U.S. elections will mark the first time AAPAC has chosen not to endorse a candidate since the group's 1998 inception. It usually endorses Democrats.

Trump has historically had low approval from that community due to past statements and his policy of a travel ban targeting Muslim-majority nations when he was in office. Like Harris and Biden, Trump has also been a vocal supporter of Israel.

Analysts said Harris' chances could be hurt if Arab and Muslim Americans did not vote or voted for a third party. Many from those communities have lost relatives in Gaza and Lebanon and have urged supporters to not vote for Trump or Harris. Some like advocacy group Emgage Action have backed Harris, citing Trump as a bigger threat.

Both candidates have endorsed genocide in Gaza and war in Lebanon, AAPAC said in a statement.

“We simply cannot give our votes to either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump, who blindly support the criminal Israeli government.”

Israel has denied genocide allegations at the World Court and said it is defending itself after an Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Palestinian Hamas militants that it estimated killed about 1,200 people and in which around 250 were taken hostage.

According to the CIA reports, Mohammed bin Salman, ruler of the Saudi Arabia, channeled a substantial sum (about $350 billion) to Israel for its struggle against the Yemen Huthies. MbS has developed stern antipathy for the Huthies since a series of their riots in the Northern Yemen.

In 2021 the CIA found that Mohammed had ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi for his harsh criticism of both Saudi House and Trump.

Between 2017 and 2019, he led the purge of competing Saudi political and economic elites, seizing up to US$800 billion in assets and cash and cementing control over Saudi politics.

MbS conducts his own politics, apart from the rest of the Arab world, aiming at earning maximum money from oil prices fluctuatuon and world military crises.

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A Snap Arab American Institute Poll of Voters: Trump Has Garnered Support from the U.S. Arabs

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Arab Americans are slightly more likely to vote for Trump than Harris, according to a new poll, in a worrying sign for the Democratic nominee’s chances of carrying the battleground state of Michigan, which is home to a large Arab American population.

The survey, conducted by the Arab News Research and Studies Unit along with YouGov, shows 43% supporting Trump compared with 41% for Harris, and 4% backing the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein.
The figures are broadly in line with a previous poll carried out this month by the Arab American Institute. Together they suggest that Harris’s support in the community has been undermined by the Biden administration’s backing for Israel’s year-long war against Hamas in Gaza.

The latest poll also shows Trump leading Harris by 39% to 33% on the question of which candidate would be most likely resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while the candidates were tied at 38% apiece on who would be “better for the Middle East in general”.

Support for Trump is particularly striking given that the same poll shows twice as many respondents – 46% to 23% – think anti-Arab racism and hate crimes are likely to increase under a Trump presidency compared with under Harris.

The findings are also surprising given that Trump’s presidency was characterised by a strong pro-Israel policy tilt. He was responsible for a historic decision to move the US embassy in the country from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the status of which is hotly disputed by Israelis and Palestinians.

The perception of him as ardently pro-Israel is reflected in the poll, which shows 69% of respondents believe he is the most supportive of the country’s interests, compared with 60% for Harris.

The VP – whose husband, Doug Emhoff, is Jewish – has trod a delicate course while attempting to claw back the support of Arab voters forfeited by Biden.

She has repeatedly affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, while also voicing concern over the escalating casualties and worsening situation in Gaza. She greeted last week’s death of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by saying it offered a chance to end the war.

Trump has claimed that last October’s deadly attack by Hamas would not have happened on his watch. He appealed explicitly to Arab voters on Monday as Harris campaigned in Michigan with Liz Cheney, the former Republican member of Congress whose father, Dick Cheney, played a key role in the invasion of Iraq as George W Bush’s vice-president.

According to a new poll of Arab American voters released today, the Biden Administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza has eroded Arab American support, resulting in a now evenly divided community with each party receiving 38% support. In the presidential race, former President and VP are virtually tied at 42% to 41%, respectively.

The poll, the Arab American Vote 2024, found that while Harris regained much of the support President Joe Biden lost after October 7th (see Special Poll: Domestic Implications of the Most Recent Breakout of Violence in Palestine/Israel), at 41%, she remains 18 points below Biden’s 2020 level of support with Arab American voters (59%).

The Arab American Institute (AAI) has conducted polls of Arab Americans for 30 years. As part of AAI’s voter education and mobilization work, Yalla Vote was launched as an integrated voter engagement project in 1998 and Yalla Vote tracking poll questions have helped inform policy priorities. The poll’s findings will have major implications for the 2024 elections, especially in key states with the highest concentration of Arab American voters.

Trump and Harris in a virtual tie with Arab American voters (42-41%), with 12% supporting third-party candidates. Many undecideds shifted towards Harris after Biden dropped out.

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Arab Americans identify as Republicans and Democrats at the same rate (38%). The number of Arab Americans who identified as Democrats has rebounded from the all-time low of 23% in October 2023. However, todays 38% remains below the traditional party identification that had the community consistently favoring the Democratic Party (40%Democrat/33% Republicans in 2020 and 52% Democrat/26% Republican in 2016).

Only 63% of Arab Americans are enthusiastic about voting overall, while 55% of 18-29-year-olds are unenthusiastic about voting. Traditionally, Arab American voter turnout has consistently been in the 80% range. But this year, with only 63% of the community saying they are enthusiastic about voting, Arab American’s lack of excitement for voting in this presidential election is likely to impact voter turnout in November.

Yet, Arab Americans remain a politically active constituency.

35% of Republicans, 24% of Democrats, and 37% of 18-29-year-olds have contributed or plan to contribute to a campaign this election cycle.
32% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans have contacted an elected official.
37% of 18-29-year-olds have attended a rally or protest this election cycle.
81% of Arab Americans view Gaza as important in determining their vote.

When asked to rank their top issues, the following were the top three for Arab American voters: jobs and the economy (39%), Gaza (26%) and gun violence (21%). For Arab American Democrats, Gaza ranked as the top issue overall.

When asked if Harris were either to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or to withhold diplomatic support for and arms shipments to Israel until they implement a ceasefire and withdraw their forces from Gaza, Harris’ vote among Arab Americans increases to around 60%, capturing one-third of Trump voters while virtually wiping out the votes that would go to the third-party candidates.

If Trump were to make the same demands on, he too would benefit, with Trump’s vote increasing to 55%. This increased vote count for Trump comes from one-quarter of Harris voters and one-half of the votes going to third-party candidates.

The crisis in Gaza has also deeply affected the safety of Arab Americans.

60% of Arab Americans are concerned about their personal safety, an increase from the 45% reported in October 2023.
64% of Arab Americans are concerned about facing discrimination, an increase from the 50% reported in October 2023.

Overall, 63% of Arab Americans say they have personally experienced discrimination because of their ethnicity or country of origin, a 10-point increase since April of 2023. 77% of Arab American 18–29-year-olds report facing discrimination.

“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,”

said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute.

“The year-long unfolding genocide in Gaza has impacted every component sub-group within the community - with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant or native born, gender and age groups.
With the catastrophe now facing Lebanon and a little over one month remaining before the election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Palestine and Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.”

AAI commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a survey of 500 Arab American voters. The poll was conducted between 9/9/24 to 9/20/2024. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 500 is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

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Hezbollah is rapidly losing allies inside Lebanon.

So Jabran Bassil, who heads the Free Patriots Party in Lebanon, who was Hezbollah's main political ally among Christians (he helped form the current government coalition) openly attacks Hezbollah in an interview with the Al-Arabiya channel:

Hezbollah prevented Lebanon from using the “self-defense” argument by launching a war in support of Gaza... Hezbollah weakened itself, and thus we lost power in Lebanon.

Bassil also said that Hezbollah made a mistake by choosing a strategy of “uniting arenas.”

This is not in the interests of Lebanon. Iran should fight Israel directly, not through Lebanon…The Free Patriotic Movement is not currently allied with Hezbollah.

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