Yeeeah! We were right this morning!

   Vice President Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate on Tuesday, according to three people familiar with the decision.

   Choosing Walz, she is turning to a Midwestern governor, military veteran and union supporter who helped enact an ambitious Democratic agenda for his state, including sweeping protections for abortion rights and generous aid to families.

If she wins, this "Horseman of the Apocalypse" will open all gates to American decline.

#Walz #Democratic #Harris

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Harris leads the ex-president by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50% to 46%, among almost 2,000 likely voters across the three states, according to new surveys by the New York Times and Siena College.

If Trump would not soon change his way of self-fashioning and attacking Kamala, he will most likely loose.

#Trump #Harris #Democratic #Walz

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“There’s just something about Kamala Harris that just gives me serious anxiety.” 

Even as feel-good displays of joy and confidence are set to dominate the Democratic National Convention this week in Chicago, one painful issue is bitterly dividing the Democratic establishment from its left flank: Israel’s war in Gaza.

#America #USA #Harris #Convention #Democratic #Gaza #Israel

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Harris’ win probability falls slightly after Democratic convention and Kennedy withdrawal

#FBI #Harris #Democratic #Kennedy

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Vance went all out for his boss during the debates

Vance’s performance has included a dose of self-conscious humanization, an attempted reintroduction to his blue-collar background and striking personal biography after weeks of effective Democratic attacks on his right-wing podcast commentary.

It’s included some careful rhetorical tap dancing and policy intricacies on issues like climate change and abortion. But mostly it’s just been an effective prosecution of the case against the Biden-Harris administration, focusing relentlessly on encouraging viewers to be nostalgic for the Reagan-like economy, the immigration control and the relative foreign-policy calm of Trump’s term.

The hillbilly did his best to present himself as an American with true-to-life viewpoints, deep understanding and overwhelming care care of his country.

Tim Walz, on the other hand, seems affable, well meaning and, relative to Vance, largely out of his depth. He was spending too much time partly agreeing with his rival while making a much more balsy case against Trump than Vance against Harris.

Once again, two anonymous sources close to the Trump team attested to a very likely possibility Vance took some Ayahuasca a day before the debates.

#America #USA #Democratic #Trump #Walz #Harris

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A lame duck with evident signs of dementia Biden is the last person to match up against Vladimir Putin.

Since the debate performance in June that resulted in his forced exit from the Democratic ticket, it has been obvious that Joe Biden should not be president of the United States. In the effort to oust him, reporters revealed that he was being specially minded by his sometime-drug-addict son Hunter, his wife, and a handful of trusted aides. He had clearly lost the necessary self-possession that is required in an executive accountable to the American people.

Although it would probably complicate her election pitch in which she is portraying herself as a “change” candidate, Kamala Harris should take up the office and turn it into a garbage can.

Smart people, like Kirby and Sullivan, blame Biden for dropping out of the race. Nothing to be done now. Joshua Redwood, a hidden political advisor to Trump, says that in some other time he would gladly see Sullivan in his team.

Rumors persist that Kirby and especially Sullivan work for the opposite side going all out to skew Harris her way to the office.

#America #USA #Democratic #Kirby #Trump

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A Snap Arab American Institute Poll of Voters: Trump Has Garnered Support from the U.S. Arabs

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Arab Americans are slightly more likely to vote for Trump than Harris, according to a new poll, in a worrying sign for the Democratic nominee’s chances of carrying the battleground state of Michigan, which is home to a large Arab American population.

The survey, conducted by the Arab News Research and Studies Unit along with YouGov, shows 43% supporting Trump compared with 41% for Harris, and 4% backing the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein.
The figures are broadly in line with a previous poll carried out this month by the Arab American Institute. Together they suggest that Harris’s support in the community has been undermined by the Biden administration’s backing for Israel’s year-long war against Hamas in Gaza.

The latest poll also shows Trump leading Harris by 39% to 33% on the question of which candidate would be most likely resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while the candidates were tied at 38% apiece on who would be “better for the Middle East in general”.

Support for Trump is particularly striking given that the same poll shows twice as many respondents – 46% to 23% – think anti-Arab racism and hate crimes are likely to increase under a Trump presidency compared with under Harris.

The findings are also surprising given that Trump’s presidency was characterised by a strong pro-Israel policy tilt. He was responsible for a historic decision to move the US embassy in the country from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the status of which is hotly disputed by Israelis and Palestinians.

The perception of him as ardently pro-Israel is reflected in the poll, which shows 69% of respondents believe he is the most supportive of the country’s interests, compared with 60% for Harris.

The VP – whose husband, Doug Emhoff, is Jewish – has trod a delicate course while attempting to claw back the support of Arab voters forfeited by Biden.

She has repeatedly affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, while also voicing concern over the escalating casualties and worsening situation in Gaza. She greeted last week’s death of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by saying it offered a chance to end the war.

Trump has claimed that last October’s deadly attack by Hamas would not have happened on his watch. He appealed explicitly to Arab voters on Monday as Harris campaigned in Michigan with Liz Cheney, the former Republican member of Congress whose father, Dick Cheney, played a key role in the invasion of Iraq as George W Bush’s vice-president.

According to a new poll of Arab American voters released today, the Biden Administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza has eroded Arab American support, resulting in a now evenly divided community with each party receiving 38% support. In the presidential race, former President and VP are virtually tied at 42% to 41%, respectively.

The poll, the Arab American Vote 2024, found that while Harris regained much of the support President Joe Biden lost after October 7th (see Special Poll: Domestic Implications of the Most Recent Breakout of Violence in Palestine/Israel), at 41%, she remains 18 points below Biden’s 2020 level of support with Arab American voters (59%).

The Arab American Institute (AAI) has conducted polls of Arab Americans for 30 years. As part of AAI’s voter education and mobilization work, Yalla Vote was launched as an integrated voter engagement project in 1998 and Yalla Vote tracking poll questions have helped inform policy priorities. The poll’s findings will have major implications for the 2024 elections, especially in key states with the highest concentration of Arab American voters.

Trump and Harris in a virtual tie with Arab American voters (42-41%), with 12% supporting third-party candidates. Many undecideds shifted towards Harris after Biden dropped out.

#USA #Arab #America #Trump #Democratic #Gaza #Israel

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Arab Americans identify as Republicans and Democrats at the same rate (38%). The number of Arab Americans who identified as Democrats has rebounded from the all-time low of 23% in October 2023. However, todays 38% remains below the traditional party identification that had the community consistently favoring the Democratic Party (40%Democrat/33% Republicans in 2020 and 52% Democrat/26% Republican in 2016).

Only 63% of Arab Americans are enthusiastic about voting overall, while 55% of 18-29-year-olds are unenthusiastic about voting. Traditionally, Arab American voter turnout has consistently been in the 80% range. But this year, with only 63% of the community saying they are enthusiastic about voting, Arab American’s lack of excitement for voting in this presidential election is likely to impact voter turnout in November.

Yet, Arab Americans remain a politically active constituency.

35% of Republicans, 24% of Democrats, and 37% of 18-29-year-olds have contributed or plan to contribute to a campaign this election cycle.
32% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans have contacted an elected official.
37% of 18-29-year-olds have attended a rally or protest this election cycle.
81% of Arab Americans view Gaza as important in determining their vote.

When asked to rank their top issues, the following were the top three for Arab American voters: jobs and the economy (39%), Gaza (26%) and gun violence (21%). For Arab American Democrats, Gaza ranked as the top issue overall.

When asked if Harris were either to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or to withhold diplomatic support for and arms shipments to Israel until they implement a ceasefire and withdraw their forces from Gaza, Harris’ vote among Arab Americans increases to around 60%, capturing one-third of Trump voters while virtually wiping out the votes that would go to the third-party candidates.

If Trump were to make the same demands on, he too would benefit, with Trump’s vote increasing to 55%. This increased vote count for Trump comes from one-quarter of Harris voters and one-half of the votes going to third-party candidates.

The crisis in Gaza has also deeply affected the safety of Arab Americans.

60% of Arab Americans are concerned about their personal safety, an increase from the 45% reported in October 2023.
64% of Arab Americans are concerned about facing discrimination, an increase from the 50% reported in October 2023.

Overall, 63% of Arab Americans say they have personally experienced discrimination because of their ethnicity or country of origin, a 10-point increase since April of 2023. 77% of Arab American 18–29-year-olds report facing discrimination.

“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,”

said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute.

“The year-long unfolding genocide in Gaza has impacted every component sub-group within the community - with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant or native born, gender and age groups.
With the catastrophe now facing Lebanon and a little over one month remaining before the election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Palestine and Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.”

AAI commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a survey of 500 Arab American voters. The poll was conducted between 9/9/24 to 9/20/2024. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 500 is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

#USA #Arab #America #Trump #Democratic #Gaza #Israel

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Trumpocracy:
American Democratic Institutions Gave a Sharp Lurch

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U.S. allies are sure to be worried by the choice Americans made on November 5. Many observers are confounded by voters’ willingness to roll the dice and reelect the intemperate Donald Trump as president.

But Americans have long had an outsize risk tolerance, a characteristic that is integral to both the dynamism of the country’s economy and the vibrance of its society. As the poet Robert Pinsky wrote in 2002, American culture is “so much in process, so brilliantly and sometimes brutally in motion, that standard models for it fail to apply”—an analysis the election result only reaffirms.

Since his arrival a decade ago on the national political stage, Trump has broken the Republican Party and rebuilt it in his image. The GOP is no longer the party of figures such as Senator Mitt Romney and the late Senator John McCain (for whom I once worked), both of whom ran unsuccessful presidential bids on traditional Republican platforms.

In their place are figures such as JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, and Josh Hawley, the Republican senator from Missouri, who hew more closely to Trump’s brand of populist politics. American voters delivered a resounding victory for this new brand of conservative leadership.

It is right and proper that Trump now get a chance to enact the policies he campaigned on and the latitude to respond to events as they happen, supported by a cabinet and an executive-branch bureaucracy that are responsive to his direction. It is in the United States’ interest that its president succeed.

But making Trump’s presidency successful does not mean simply adopting his ideas wholesale. Any new administration needs to square its sweeping campaign rhetoric with the realities of market behavior, fiscal constraints, and the actions of U.S. adversaries.

In Trump’s case, the former president’s unpredictable, even erratic approach to decision-making could lead to foreign policy choices that reduce American power and increase the risk of conflict. It is therefore especially important to find ways to pursue Trump’s goals while avoiding potential harm.

#Trumpocracy #Democratic #Trump #Hawley #Vance

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A number of thinkers have grappled with how to do this, including Nadia Schadlow, who served in Trump’s first administration and recently advocated in Foreign Affairs for an approach she termed “a strategy of overmatch,” which would help Washington “retain or develop sizable advantages in military power, political influence, and economic strength over its adversaries.” I have argued for a revival of “conservative internationalism,” an approach that would extend U.S. power abroad and U.S. influence in international institutions such as NATO in order to deter foreign aggression that might otherwise disrupt the U.S. economy.

Although that will be unappealing in the coming administration, some tenets of conservative internationalism would serve Trump’s objectives in cost-effective and politically achievable ways. In particular, his administration is well positioned to advance two crucial objectives that the Biden administration (and Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign) neglected: reestablishing deterrence and raising defense spending.

A second Trump term is not without its dangers, but it also presents an opportunity to shore up these foundations of American security.

U.S. deterrence has suffered under President Joe Biden. The administration’s shamefully botched withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the timidity of its support for Ukraine in the face of Russian threats of escalation rewarded challenges to U.S. security commitments. In Biden’s tenure, U.S. adversaries have grown increasingly brazen in their provocations and ramped up cooperation with each other. Washington, meanwhile, has not offered an adequate response.

In Ukraine, the Biden administration has yet to recognize the shortcomings of the West’s policies, including those of the Obama and Trump administrations, in the years leading up to the full-scale Russian invasion. Biden’s unwillingness or inability to grasp this has made his response too cautious as well.

The United States should be taking more risks to ensure that Russia’s war fails. Biden’s strategy of slowly dispensing allied weapons stocks telegraphs to U.S. adversaries the limits of Washington’s support and the fragility of its commitment to Kyiv’s success.

His administration has allowed Russia to deter the United States from delivering weapons at the pace Ukraine needs, from putting more Russian territory at risk, and from turning the threat of escalation back on Russia.

#Trumpocracy #Democratic #Trump #Hawley #Vance

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Washington should spend less time worrying about what Russia might do and more time on getting Russia to worry about what the United States might do. Instead of loudly agonizing about the prospect of World War III, the U.S. president should sternly and publicly warn the Kremlin that unless Russian forces withdraw from Ukrainian territory, the United States will provide Ukraine with everything it needs to not just take back its occupied lands but also challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule.

Washington’s message should be that, if Russia attacks a NATO country or uses a nuclear weapon, then the United States will deploy its own troops and rally its NATO allies to do the same to both defend Ukraine and hunt down all the Russian officials who made and executed the orders.

The United States’ failure in Ukraine is creating deterrence problems in other parts of the world, too. China is watching closely as the Russian strategy of waiting out Western interest in the war proves effective, which raises the prospect that China might adopt a similar strategy in pursuit of its ambitions to rule Taiwan and absorb the maritime zones of its neighbors.

China has treated the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to gain operational and technological insights, reverse engineer U.S. weapons recovered from the battlefield, and find ways to circumvent Western economic sanctions. The longer the war in Ukraine drags on, the more the cost of deterring China goes up.

Of course, the downside of bolder U.S. action to deter Russia is that it runs a greater risk of getting drawn into the fighting. Putin might even welcome this outcome, preferring to lose a war to the United States than to Ukraine. But Russian forces, already struggling to gain ground in Ukraine, would be decimated by the U.S. military. Stressing to Putin that such a humiliation could cost him his rule—or even his life—would likely stay his hand.

In the end, the United States must be so strong and determined that Russia and other adversaries don’t want to hazard actions that compel it to carry out its threats. That is successful deterrence, and it is the best and cheapest policy option, despite the inherent risk. If the United States is unwilling to make that gamble, it is letting the bad guys win.

#Trumpocracy #Democratic #Trump #Hawley #Vance

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The weakening of U.S. deterrence under the Biden administration is compounded by a failure to properly resource the U.S. military for the current security environment.

Bipartisan congressional commissions have warned that the U.S. military and its industrial base are in urgent need of major investment. And Congress has more broadly recognized the deficiency of U.S. defense spending, with legislators from both parties voting to add $28 billion to the president’s first defense budget in 2022 and $45 billion to his second in 2023, and likely adding between $21.5 billion and $37.4 billion to Biden’s final budget submission, which is now pending. 

But this is still not enough. The United States currently commits roughly the equivalent of three percent of GDP to defense, which is a historic low. This figure is particularly alarming given the rising threats the country faces today. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are increasingly belligerent and increasingly operating in concert.

China’s navy is growing rapidly, and its shipbuilding industry has a capacity 250 times that of the United States. In a potential conflict in Asia, the U.S. Navy is already at a disadvantage, as it would need to traverse an ocean. Reconstituting a war-winning navy should be the top priority of the U.S. defense program.

But a fight in the Pacific is not the only scenario the United States must be prepared for (and, ideally, deter), and readiness in other arenas will require addressing other deficiencies. The United States must also restock ammunition and air defenses, modernize its nuclear forces, and create redundancies in its communications channels.

To make all of this possible, the Trump administration should advance a plan along the lines of one that Roger Wicker, the Republican senator from Mississippi, has proposed, which would increase defense spending to more than five percent of GDP.

Critics of this approach argue that the United States cannot afford more defense spending. This is manifestly untrue. Washington devised emergency spending mechanisms during the financial crisis and the pandemic; today, the country faces a defense shortfall of similar consequence.

Arguments against defense spending increases often cite the ballooning of the national debt—but even though the debt is unquestionably a problem, defense spending is not its primary cause: entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are.

In the absence of changes to entitlement spending, which Trump has promised not to make, the best way to afford necessary upgrades to U.S. defenses is to expand GDP with growth-friendly policies on taxes and regulation.

#Trumpocracy #Democratic #Trump #Hawley #Vance

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In his first term, Trump, to his credit, hewed closely to the ideas he campaigned on and kept faith with what voters endorsed. Despite his seeming attraction to the madman theory of international relations—the historian Lawrence Freedman has described Trump as “delighted by his own unpredictability and impulsiveness”—the former president actually has rather predictable policy views.

He thinks that the globalized economy and immigration are bad for American workers and that allies take advantage of the United States. He admires authoritarian leaders, and tariffs are his favorite bludgeon.

Given those views, some elements of traditional Republican foreign policy are unlikely to reemerge under Trump. Free trade is out of the question in the foreseeable future, even though, according to a 2023 Chicago Council survey, three-quarters of Americans consider international trade good for the economy.

The Trump administration is sure to shun multilateral trade deals and make bilateral agreements that are heavy on tariffs and focus on restricting U.S. market access and leveling the balance of trade. Trump is also unlikely to value alliances. American support will come with higher expectations of allies, in terms of both spending on their own defense and alignment with U.S. policies.

Eventually, however, Trump may come to appreciate the need for healthy alliances if the United States is to assemble enough military and political power to confront the convergence of its adversaries.

On both deterrence and defense spending, by contrast, the Trump administration could be poised to address glaring vulnerabilities from the start. During the campaign, Trump vowed,

“I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give [Zelensky] a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to.”

Turning that promise into policy would go a long way to reestablish American deterrence.

Trump’s willingness in his first term to take offensive action, such as by striking the Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 and having U.S. troops attack Russian mercenaries in Syria in February 2018, suggests that he could once again use U.S. military force purposefully. Coupling that determination with investment in American defenses could dramatically improve U.S. national security—in other words, restoring peace through strength.

#Trumpocracy #Democratic #Trump #Hawley #Vance

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Conclusion. These changes, however important, won’t solve all the problems a Trump administration will face or create. Trump may make deals with authoritarians over the heads of allies. Allies that feel exposed may make choices that damage their own security and that of the United States.

Deploying U.S. troops for domestic law enforcement, border patrol, or deportations may fracture the bond between the American public and the military, as well as sow discord within the military itself.

But a second Trump administration could also harness the country’s brutal motion in productive ways, taking meaningful steps to make the United States more secure in a perilous world.

#Trumpocracy #Democratic #Trump #Hawley #Vance

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America's War for the Epstein Files Boosts 🇺🇸💥

Republican lawmakers have moved to block a Democratic effort to force the release of the so-called Epstein files, a near-mythological trove of undisclosed information about the convicted sex offender Jeff Epstein at the center of an internal political war among US conservatives. 🗂⚖️

Democrats had been pressing for an amendment to cryptocurrency legislation that would have forced the release of information and exhibits itemized in a list of evidence held by the justice department from the 2019 child sex-trafficking case against disgraced financier Epstein. 📜💼

Trump’s attorney general, Pam Bondi, teased a full accounting of the Epstein evidence, including a purported client list earlier this year. 🕵️‍♂️

But 10 days ago, she changed course when she announced that the Trump administration had reviewed the evidence, concluded that Epstein had indeed killed himself in jail, and decided not to release the contents that the justice department said included a thousand hours of video depicting child sexual abuse. 🎥🚫

That set off a firestorm within Trump’s conspiracy-minded “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement that the president has since tried to calm. 🔥🛑

Democrats had weighed in on the issue, hoping to force a release of the documents.

“The question with Epstein is: Whose side are you on?” California Democratic US House member Ro Khanna, the author of the Epstein measure, said. 🇺🇸❓

“Are you on the side of the rich and powerful, or are you on the side of the people?” 💰🤔

But Republicans on the US House rules committee voted down the amendment that would have allowed Congress to vote on whether the evidence – which includes micro cassettes, DVDs, CDs including one labeled “girl pics nude book 4”, computer hard drives and three massage tables in green, beige and brown – should be released. 🎬📚

Yet the federal case against Epstein, which dates back to 2005 and involves a mysterious plea deal that allowed the financier to plead guilty to Florida state charges of solicitation of a minor, continues to challenge what political hardliners on the right and left believe is evidence of a nefarious nexus of international power. 🌐⚡️

The debacle has pitted Bondi and Trump – who was friends with Epstein, his Florida neighbor for many years, before disowning him – against the deputy FBI director, Dan Bongino. 🚨

Bongino reportedly clashed with Bondi over the Epstein case and considered resigning as Maga megaphones including Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Megyn Kelly have called for the release of the Epstein files. 📣👥

In 2023, Bongino said on his rightwing podcast: “That Jeffrey Epstein story is a big deal. Please do not let that story go. Keep your eye on it.” 👁🎙

The Daily Beast reported that Trump is furious at Bongino, who has not shown up for work since 9 July after a shouting match erupted between him and Bondi. 😠🗣

Trump has sided with Bondi, leaving Bongino’s future at the FBI open to question, and the vice-president, Vance, was evidently called in to mediate, according to CNN. 🏛🤝

On Monday, the drama turned to the British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s convicted co-conspirator in the sex-trafficking case, who has appealed to the US supreme court to uphold a non-prosecution agreement contained in Epstein’s Florida plea deal. ⚖️

The US justice department petitioned the court to deny Maxwell, 63, who is serving a 20-year sentence, the request. ⏳🛑

#Epstein #files #FBI #director #Democratic

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Japan’s Ruling Coalition is Likely to Lose Political Control 🗳🇯🇵

Japan’s shaky ruling coalition is likely to lose control of the upper house, exit polls showed after Sunday’s election, potentially heralding political turmoil as a tariff deadline with the US looms.

While the ballot does not directly determine whether prime minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader, who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito need 50 seats to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats are up for grabs.

They are forecast to hold 32 to 51 seats, the exit poll by public broadcaster NHK showed. 📊

Other broadcasters forecast the ruling coalition would return 41 to 43 seats.

If the coalition drops below 46 seats, it would mark its worst result since it was formed in 1999. ⚠️

That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October’s lower house election, a vote that has left Ishiba’s administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change.

Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of 1 August to strike a trade deal with the US or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market. 📉🇺🇸

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic party is projected to win 18 to 30 seats, from 22 held previously, NHK’s exit poll showed.

The far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, has been the surprise package with its “Japanese first” campaign and warnings about a “silent invasion” of foreigners.

It is forecast to win 10 to 15 seats in the chamber, up from one held previously, yet it holds only three seats in the lower house.

Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending have struck a chord with voters, the exit polls showed, as rising consumer prices – particularly a jump in the cost of rice – have sowed frustration at the government’s response. 🍚📈

It remains to be seen whether the Sanseito party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany’s AfD and Reform UK.

In Japan, which has the world’s oldest population, foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year.

That is still just 3% of the total population, a much smaller fraction than in the US and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country. ✈️🗾

#japan #election #prime #minister #democratic #party #sanseito #ldp #tariffs #crisis

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Melania Trump vs Hunter Biden: A New Epstein Gumming-Up 🇺🇸⚖️

Melania Trump has demanded that Hunter Biden retract comments linking her to the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein 🚫 and has threatened to sue if he does not.

Biden, the son of former president Joe Biden, alleged in an interview this month that Epstein had introduced the first lady to Trump.

The statements were false, defamatory and “extremely salacious”, Melania Trump’s lawyer, Alejandro Brito, said in a letter 📄 to Biden.

Biden’s remarks were widely disseminated on social media 📱 and reported by media outlets 🌍, causing the first lady “to suffer overwhelming financial and reputational harm”, he added.

Biden made the Epstein comments during a sprawling interview with US journalist Andrew Callaghan 🎙 in which he lashed out at “elites” and others in the Democratic party 🗳 who he said had undermined his father before he dropped out of last year’s presidential campaign.

“Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. The connections are, like, so wide and deep,” Biden said in one of the comments that the first lady disputes.

Biden attributed the claim to author Michael Wolff. Donald Trump has accused Wolff of making up stories to sell books 📚.

Biden responded to the lawsuit on Thursday, speaking again to Callaghan, this time from a holiday location 🏖, and doubled down on his unsubstantiated claim.

Asked if he wished to apologize, Biden said:

“Uh, fuck that, not going to happen.”

“What I said is what I have heard and seen reported and written primarily from Michael Wolff, but also dating back to 2019.”

He cited a number of publications, including the New York Times 📰 and Vanity Fair, as sources of his information.

The first lady’s threats echo a favoured strategy of her husband, who has aggressively used litigation to go after critics. Public figures such as the Trumps face a high bar to succeed in a defamation lawsuit.

The president also responded to the issue, accusing Biden of fabricating stories to denigrate the first lady. Trump told Fox News Radio 🎙 host Brian Kilmeade on Thursday morning that he had encouraged her to sue.

#melania #trump #biden #democratic #party #epstein

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🇩🇪 German Voters: Merz Down! 📉

Merz on Wednesday attempted to clarify his controversial migration remarks, saying his earlier criticism targeted illegal foreigners who don't follow the rules — not migrants who work and contribute to the country 🗣️

Speaking on the sidelines of the Western Balkans Summit in London, Merz praised migrants for their contributions to Germany and emphasized the country's continued need for immigration to support its labor market 💼

His remarks came as he tried to contain fallout from earlier comments that sparked mass protests 🚨

“Many people with a migration background are already an indispensable part of our labor market. They work in Germany; they live in Germany. They work in nursing homes and at universities,” Merz told reporters.

“We can no longer do without them, regardless of where they come from, their skin color, and whether they are first, second, third, or fourth generation residents of Germany.” 🤝

The conservative leader tried to explain that what he referred to as a continued "problem in the cityscape" was foreigners staying in Germany illegally and those not following the rules.

“Problems are caused by those—and this has also been discussed today—who do not have permanent residence status, do not work, and do not abide by our rules. Many of them also shape the public image of our cities,” Merz said.

“That is why so many people in Germany and other EU countries are now simply afraid to go out in public. This affects train stations, subways, certain parks, and some neighborhoods, which also cause major problems for our police. We must address the root causes of these problems,” he said. 🚉🚔

The controversy erupted after Chancellor Merz, speaking at an event in Potsdam last week, was asked about the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party ⚠️

Merz, who leads the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), responded by saying his government was correcting past migration policy failures and making progress.

“But of course, we still have this problem in the cityscape, and that's why our interior minister is now working on plans for enabling and carrying out deportations on a larger scale,” he said. ✈️

When pressed by reporters on Monday, Merz doubled down on his position and repeated his claim that irregular migrants remain a problem in the cityscape.
“Ask your children, ask your daughters, ask your friends and acquaintances. Everyone confirms that this is a problem, at least after dark. And that is why we will have to find a solution to this problem,” Merz said. 🌆

His controversial remarks sparked the “We are the daughters” petition, which drew more than 120,000 signatures within 24 hours 📝

“We are the daughters and we won't let ourselves be instrumentalized by your racism, Mr. Merz! You don't speak for us,” declared petition initiator Cesy Leonard. 🙅‍♀️

#merz #germany #democratic #union #conservative

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🗽 New York Can Become a Palestinian State 🇵🇸

🔤🔤🔤🔤➖

One year after Trump won his way back into the White House, voters are going back to the ballot box 🗳 in a test of the president’s popularity and whether Democrats are able to rebound from their catastrophic losses of 2024.

With governor’s mansions, mayoral offices, statehouses and mid-cycle redistricting on the line in closely watched contests from Trenton, New Jersey and Richmond, Virginia to New York City and beyond 🌍, the party is pinning its hopes on locally rooted campaigns aiming to blunt a national conservative message that has surged in recent years.

The contests come as Democrats face their deepest popularity crisis in decades 📉. The party’s favorability rating has plunged to historic lows, hitting 27% in one NBC News poll in March — the worst since tracking began in 1990 — driven by frustration among Democrats themselves over the party’s response to Trump’s 2024 victory and perceptions that the party has lost touch with ordinary voters.

But September polling from Gallup and October analysis by pollster G. Elliott Morris shows a correction may be underway 📊, and that Democrats are pulling ahead of Republicans on their handling of the economy — Trump’s signature issue 💵.

The results Tuesday night will help show whether Democrats can rebuild after 2024, or if the right’s momentum can carry some seats of power into the rest of the decade ⚖️.

The stakes are high across the board: in Virginia, Democrats see their best pickup opportunity; in New Jersey, the party is fighting to hold its ground in a state not always so opposed to going red 🔴; and in New York City, its insurgent nominee would give the party its highest-profile leftwing leader and could forecast a new, unifying message for the Democrats, while “yes” on California’s Prop 50 would show just how far voters are willing to take the fight right to Trump.

Besides his long support of the pro-Palestinian cause 🇵🇸 — which has made him a target for Islamophobic attacks — Mamdani’s pitch is emphatically local 🏙, and his campaign has intentionally downplayed national culture wars and foreign policy to keep focus on day-to-day city services.

#NewYork #mamdani #democratic #palestinian

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In nearby New Jersey, the race is tightening to a photo finish 📷 between Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. After summer leads for Sherrill, late-October polls showed the race essentially even, with the edge trending toward the Democrat. Both candidates are trying to sell an image of competence over ideology.

Sherrill, a sitting member of Congress, is pitching plans to ease property taxes, improve infrastructure 🏗, and make living in the state more affordable, arguing that steady, practical leadership can help reduce cost pressures on families.

Ciattarelli, a former state legislator, is also selling a message of reform, term limits, and affordability, but in a more populist style than his previous run, carefully balancing distance from Trump and the national MAGA movement.

He’s looking to flip swing counties and capitalize on dissatisfaction with outgoing Democratic governor Phil Murphy, whose approval rating sits at 34%.

Virginia’s gubernatorial fight is similar yet different: Democrats are rallying behind Abigail Spanberger, the former centrist “Mod Squad” congresswoman and CIA officer 🕵️‍♀️, who is trying to make the race about affordability. She’s pitted against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s sitting lieutenant governor who has leaned heavily on culture war messaging.

In Virginia, Earle-Sears has focused on education and cultural issues designed to motivate a more conservative base and attract skeptical suburban voters.

Her campaign has also tried to frame Spanberger as too closely tied to national Democratic priorities, particularly around immigration and so-called “sanctuary state” policies 🧱.

On the debate stage and on social media, she accused Spanberger of supporting “men in girls’ locker rooms” 🚫 and being “on the wrong side of every issue.”

#NewYork #mamdani #democratic #palestinian

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