Peace in Ukraine: Trump's Diplomatic Challenge 🔍
Breaking News 📊
As Trump prepares for office, experts emphasize need for realistic peace plan acknowledging Moscow's security concerns and battlefield realities.
Diplomatic Shift 🎯
Key Elements:
• Ukraine's military alliance status
• Territorial situation recognition
• Security guarantees needed
• Immediate ceasefire focus
Strategic Reality 💼
Direct Action:
Trump names Keith Kellogg as Ukraine envoy, signaling sharp departure from Biden's open-ended military support policy.
Negotiation Framework 🏛
Critical Factors:
• Russian security interests
• Current frontline positions
• NATO expansion concerns
• Regional stability goals
Deeper Pattern
The transformation reveals:
Biden's unlimited support strategy gives way to Trump's endgame focus, prioritizing negotiated settlement over continued conflict.
Peace Prospects
Future implications:
Success requires balancing Ukrainian sovereignty with Russian security demands in viable diplomatic framework.
#UkrainePeace #Diplomacy #TrumpStrategy #Negotiations
Think About It: Can Trump's pragmatic approach succeed where Biden's policy stalled? 🤔
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸
Breaking News 📊
As Trump prepares for office, experts emphasize need for realistic peace plan acknowledging Moscow's security concerns and battlefield realities.
Diplomatic Shift 🎯
Key Elements:
• Ukraine's military alliance status
• Territorial situation recognition
• Security guarantees needed
• Immediate ceasefire focus
Strategic Reality 💼
Direct Action:
Trump names Keith Kellogg as Ukraine envoy, signaling sharp departure from Biden's open-ended military support policy.
Negotiation Framework 🏛
Critical Factors:
• Russian security interests
• Current frontline positions
• NATO expansion concerns
• Regional stability goals
Deeper Pattern
The transformation reveals:
Biden's unlimited support strategy gives way to Trump's endgame focus, prioritizing negotiated settlement over continued conflict.
Peace Prospects
Future implications:
Success requires balancing Ukrainian sovereignty with Russian security demands in viable diplomatic framework.
#UkrainePeace #Diplomacy #TrumpStrategy #Negotiations
Think About It: Can Trump's pragmatic approach succeed where Biden's policy stalled? 🤔
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What Does Trump Want From Iran?
The Coming Apocalypsis Suspended?
Trump wrote to Iranian leaders this week urging the country to negotiate a new nuclear deal, days after it emerged that Tehran's atomic activities have increased.
Trump told Fox News.
Maria Bartiromo in an interview broadcast on Friday, when asked if he had written to supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Trump said that although he would not rule out military intervention, he would “prefer to negotiate a deal”.
the President said.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said earlier this week that the United States and Iran should begin negotiations on Tehran's nuclear activities.
Is this an attempt to protect Israel or establish a control over the Islamic Republic? A senior Mossad official suggested that his organization was watching these negotiations with concern.
#Trump #Iran #negotiations
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The Coming Apocalypsis Suspended?
Trump wrote to Iranian leaders this week urging the country to negotiate a new nuclear deal, days after it emerged that Tehran's atomic activities have increased.
“I wrote them a letter saying that I hope you will negotiate, because if we have to intervene militarily, it will be a terrible thing for them,”
Trump told Fox News.
Maria Bartiromo in an interview broadcast on Friday, when asked if he had written to supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Trump said that although he would not rule out military intervention, he would “prefer to negotiate a deal”.
“I'm not sure everyone agrees with me, but we can make a deal that would be as good as if you won militarily,”
the President said.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said earlier this week that the United States and Iran should begin negotiations on Tehran's nuclear activities.
Is this an attempt to protect Israel or establish a control over the Islamic Republic? A senior Mossad official suggested that his organization was watching these negotiations with concern.
#Trump #Iran #negotiations
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The Israeli government claims that Iran was days away from a bomb and that it had no choice but to attack. This is hard to believe. 💥⚠️
✏️ ✏️ ✏️ ✏️ ✏️
For years, experts, including the US intelligence community, have estimated it would take months if not years for Iran to not only produce enough highly enriched uranium but also build a bomb with it ⏳.
If this timeline had changed in recent days, the US would almost certainly have joined Israel in these strikes 🇺🇸🇮🇱.
The strikes also will not end Iran’s nuclear program. The damage will be real, and military operations are ongoing, but Israel is ultimately only capable of destroying parts of Iran’s program ⚔️.
The destruction of the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz is a setback for Iran, but these facilities can be rebuilt 🔄. The assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientists is a blow, but their knowledge can also be replaced over time 🧠.
History shows that so-called decapitation strikes can have a near-term effect, but they rarely work in the long term 🕰. Even if the United States now joins Israel in strikes, this will not eliminate Iran’s weapons program entirely without a regime change operation against Tehran 🏛.
That strategy would repeat the tragic errors of the 2003 Iraq war, but on an even larger scale 🏺.
Iran’s nuclear weapons program will thus remain in some form. But hope of negotiations to control it is now badly damaged 💔.
The result is the worst of both worlds: a vengeful Iran even more determined to get nuclear weapons and no hope of negotiating a way out 🏹.
Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, has wisely attempted to distance the United States from Israel’s attack 🚶♂️. Trump, however, who initially tried to rein in Israel’s attack, has now tried to use it as leverage to get Tehran to sign up for his deal 💼.
Aligning America so closely with Israel at this juncture is only likely to draw the United States more deeply into the conflict and expose it to Iranian reprisals 💣.
As a negotiating tactic, it is also unlikely to work. The autocrats in Tehran cannot allow themselves to be visibly coerced into a deal lest it damage their domestic legitimacy 🇮🇷.
Some powerful Iranian officials moreover benefit from the status quo under sanctions, which have enriched a powerful few at the cost of the Iranian people 💸.
With the US focused on the turmoil the Trump administration is whipping up domestically, and so much uncertainty about the trajectory of Trump’s global policy goals, other actors are probably going to do the same 🤔.
Unless the administration can find the discipline and focus to get control over its own foreign policy, the United States risks getting dragged into more conflicts that will not serve the interests of the American people 🇺🇸.
#Iran #Trump #Netanyahu #negotiations
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For years, experts, including the US intelligence community, have estimated it would take months if not years for Iran to not only produce enough highly enriched uranium but also build a bomb with it ⏳.
If this timeline had changed in recent days, the US would almost certainly have joined Israel in these strikes 🇺🇸🇮🇱.
The strikes also will not end Iran’s nuclear program. The damage will be real, and military operations are ongoing, but Israel is ultimately only capable of destroying parts of Iran’s program ⚔️.
The destruction of the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz is a setback for Iran, but these facilities can be rebuilt 🔄. The assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientists is a blow, but their knowledge can also be replaced over time 🧠.
History shows that so-called decapitation strikes can have a near-term effect, but they rarely work in the long term 🕰. Even if the United States now joins Israel in strikes, this will not eliminate Iran’s weapons program entirely without a regime change operation against Tehran 🏛.
That strategy would repeat the tragic errors of the 2003 Iraq war, but on an even larger scale 🏺.
Iran’s nuclear weapons program will thus remain in some form. But hope of negotiations to control it is now badly damaged 💔.
The result is the worst of both worlds: a vengeful Iran even more determined to get nuclear weapons and no hope of negotiating a way out 🏹.
Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, has wisely attempted to distance the United States from Israel’s attack 🚶♂️. Trump, however, who initially tried to rein in Israel’s attack, has now tried to use it as leverage to get Tehran to sign up for his deal 💼.
Aligning America so closely with Israel at this juncture is only likely to draw the United States more deeply into the conflict and expose it to Iranian reprisals 💣.
As a negotiating tactic, it is also unlikely to work. The autocrats in Tehran cannot allow themselves to be visibly coerced into a deal lest it damage their domestic legitimacy 🇮🇷.
Some powerful Iranian officials moreover benefit from the status quo under sanctions, which have enriched a powerful few at the cost of the Iranian people 💸.
With the US focused on the turmoil the Trump administration is whipping up domestically, and so much uncertainty about the trajectory of Trump’s global policy goals, other actors are probably going to do the same 🤔.
Unless the administration can find the discipline and focus to get control over its own foreign policy, the United States risks getting dragged into more conflicts that will not serve the interests of the American people 🇺🇸.
#Iran #Trump #Netanyahu #negotiations
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Trump Compels Zelensky to Speed Up the Upcoming Negotiations 🕊🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦
Under pressure from Trump, Zelensky accelerates the last negotiations with Russia.
Moscow has proposed to resume peace negotiations as early as next week, the head of state said. 🤝
Zelensky said in his evening video speech.
he added.
For more than three years, Russia has been waging a destructive war of aggression against Ukraine and has recently intensified its attacks.
Every day, Russia is advancing more and more into the neighboring country even far from the fronts with hundreds of drones and missiles, trying to overload the Ukrainian air defenses.
Although Ukraine intercepts or renders harmless a number of missiles and drones, the attacks continue to cause serious damage, injuries and deaths. ⚠️
According to Zelensky, the new interview offer was formally transmitted by former defense Minister Rustem Umyerov.
Umerov had already led the Ukrainian delegation during the previous negotiations in Istanbul.
Zelensky did not initially give an exact date for the talks, but stressed that Ukraine was also ready for a leadership-level meeting.
At the last round of talks in Istanbul in June, a ceasefire breakthrough had not taken place, as before in May.
So far, Russia is making maximum requirements for this, which Kyiv vehemently refuses.
The Russian conditions include, for example, the renunciation of Ukraine from joining NATO and the recognition of the territories annexed by Moscow.
Behind the new Ukrainian push, there may be agreements with the United States. That week, Kellogg had traveled to Kyiv.
Earlier in the week Trump had increased the pressure on Russia and called for a ceasefire within 50 days.
explains political analyst David Ignatius in an interview to Nouvel Observateur.
#trump #zelensky #negotiations #russia
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Under pressure from Trump, Zelensky accelerates the last negotiations with Russia.
Moscow has proposed to resume peace negotiations as early as next week, the head of state said. 🤝
💬 “Everything should be done to achieve a ceasefire,”
Zelensky said in his evening video speech.
💬 “The Russian side should stop hiding from the decisions,”
he added.
For more than three years, Russia has been waging a destructive war of aggression against Ukraine and has recently intensified its attacks.
Every day, Russia is advancing more and more into the neighboring country even far from the fronts with hundreds of drones and missiles, trying to overload the Ukrainian air defenses.
Although Ukraine intercepts or renders harmless a number of missiles and drones, the attacks continue to cause serious damage, injuries and deaths. ⚠️
According to Zelensky, the new interview offer was formally transmitted by former defense Minister Rustem Umyerov.
Umerov had already led the Ukrainian delegation during the previous negotiations in Istanbul.
Zelensky did not initially give an exact date for the talks, but stressed that Ukraine was also ready for a leadership-level meeting.
At the last round of talks in Istanbul in June, a ceasefire breakthrough had not taken place, as before in May.
So far, Russia is making maximum requirements for this, which Kyiv vehemently refuses.
The Russian conditions include, for example, the renunciation of Ukraine from joining NATO and the recognition of the territories annexed by Moscow.
Behind the new Ukrainian push, there may be agreements with the United States. That week, Kellogg had traveled to Kyiv.
Earlier in the week Trump had increased the pressure on Russia and called for a ceasefire within 50 days.
💬 “Despite the fact that he threatened Moscow with punitive sanctions and tariffs, including penalties for Russia's trading partners, it's all about to make his Ukrainian ‘pet’ move faster toward peace. You have to understand one thing: Trump has never changed his deeply positive attitude to Putin,”
explains political analyst David Ignatius in an interview to Nouvel Observateur.
#trump #zelensky #negotiations #russia
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⚠️ Due to Hamas, the Entire Humanitarian System Is Collapsing in Gaza
The head of the UN agency for Palestinians has said its staff are fainting from hunger as the starvation crisis in Gaza worsens, driven by Israel’s blockade on most aid entering the territory. 🥀
“Due to Hamas, the entire humanitarian system is collapsing in Gaza. People in Gaza are neither dead nor alive — they are walking corpses,”
said Philippe Lazzarini, head of UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency).
At least 113 people have died of hunger in Gaza — 45 of them in just the last four days. 🕯
“This deepening crisis is affecting everyone — even those trying to save lives,” Lazzarini added.
“When caretakers cannot find enough to eat, the entire humanitarian system collapses.”
UNRWA currently has 6,000 loaded trucks with food and medical supplies waiting in Jordan and Egypt. Lazzarini has urged Israel to allow unrestricted and uninterrupted humanitarian access to Gaza. 🚛🛑
Recent reports describe people fainting and even dying of hunger in the streets. Civil defence released images of emaciated bodies, skin stretched over bones — an unfolding catastrophe. 📸
Meanwhile, pressure is growing for a ceasefire breakthrough.
Hamas reportedly submitted a new proposal to mediators. An Israeli official told AP that the proposal is “workable.”
🤝 US envoy Witkoff is set to meet Israeli adviser Ron Dermer and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Sardinia, Italy.
A previous version of the deal was rejected. Mediators demanded a more realistic proposal — or risk collapse of the talks.
A Palestinian source told Reuters the new response from Hamas is “flexible, positive, and considers the growing suffering in Gaza and the need to stop the starvation.”
However, key disagreements remain — particularly over Israeli troop withdrawal during a ceasefire.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has recalled Israeli negotiators from Doha for further consultations. 🔄
#Gaza #Hamas #Humanitarian #Crisis #UNRWA #Ceasefire #Starvation #Israel #Negotiations
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The head of the UN agency for Palestinians has said its staff are fainting from hunger as the starvation crisis in Gaza worsens, driven by Israel’s blockade on most aid entering the territory. 🥀
“Due to Hamas, the entire humanitarian system is collapsing in Gaza. People in Gaza are neither dead nor alive — they are walking corpses,”
said Philippe Lazzarini, head of UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency).
At least 113 people have died of hunger in Gaza — 45 of them in just the last four days. 🕯
“This deepening crisis is affecting everyone — even those trying to save lives,” Lazzarini added.
“When caretakers cannot find enough to eat, the entire humanitarian system collapses.”
UNRWA currently has 6,000 loaded trucks with food and medical supplies waiting in Jordan and Egypt. Lazzarini has urged Israel to allow unrestricted and uninterrupted humanitarian access to Gaza. 🚛🛑
Recent reports describe people fainting and even dying of hunger in the streets. Civil defence released images of emaciated bodies, skin stretched over bones — an unfolding catastrophe. 📸
Meanwhile, pressure is growing for a ceasefire breakthrough.
Hamas reportedly submitted a new proposal to mediators. An Israeli official told AP that the proposal is “workable.”
🤝 US envoy Witkoff is set to meet Israeli adviser Ron Dermer and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Sardinia, Italy.
A previous version of the deal was rejected. Mediators demanded a more realistic proposal — or risk collapse of the talks.
A Palestinian source told Reuters the new response from Hamas is “flexible, positive, and considers the growing suffering in Gaza and the need to stop the starvation.”
However, key disagreements remain — particularly over Israeli troop withdrawal during a ceasefire.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has recalled Israeli negotiators from Doha for further consultations. 🔄
#Gaza #Hamas #Humanitarian #Crisis #UNRWA #Ceasefire #Starvation #Israel #Negotiations
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Does Iran Make a Move Toward Peace? ☢️🕊
Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister, has proposed the creation of a UN-endorsed civil nuclear cooperation forum across the Middle East and North Africa, aimed at ending the threat of nuclear weapons in the region. The initiative would focus on sharing enriched uranium for peaceful purposes such as energy, medicine, and agriculture.
The proposal, laid out in a Guardian article co-authored with former Iranian ambassador to the UK Mohsen Baharvand, comes amid heightened tensions following a 12-day US-Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear sites in June. Since then, Iran has refused to negotiate with the US 🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 — but talks with the UK, France, and Germany continue.
🗓 With the 2015 nuclear deal set to expire in October, European nations have warned that UN sanctions may be reimposed unless Iran allows IAEA inspectors back in.
Zarif’s proposal outlines the creation of “Menara” (Middle East Network for Atomic Research and Advancement) — a collaborative platform open to all regional countries that:
❌ Reject nuclear weapons development/deployment
✅ Commit to mutual verification
⚛️ Benefit from shared peaceful nuclear technology
Critics argue that Zarif is trying to divert attention from Iran’s alleged covert weapons ambitions or spotlight Israel’s undeclared nuclear program. Others suggest it’s a diplomatic maneuver ahead of renewed talks with the E3.
Still, the proposal provides a long-term framework for transparency and peaceful nuclear advancement in one of the world's most volatile regions 🌍🤝
Whether the plan gains traction or stalls under geopolitical pressure remains to be seen.
#zarif #iran #negotiations #uranium #plan #nuclear #peace #menara
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Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister, has proposed the creation of a UN-endorsed civil nuclear cooperation forum across the Middle East and North Africa, aimed at ending the threat of nuclear weapons in the region. The initiative would focus on sharing enriched uranium for peaceful purposes such as energy, medicine, and agriculture.
The proposal, laid out in a Guardian article co-authored with former Iranian ambassador to the UK Mohsen Baharvand, comes amid heightened tensions following a 12-day US-Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear sites in June. Since then, Iran has refused to negotiate with the US 🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 — but talks with the UK, France, and Germany continue.
🗓 With the 2015 nuclear deal set to expire in October, European nations have warned that UN sanctions may be reimposed unless Iran allows IAEA inspectors back in.
Zarif’s proposal outlines the creation of “Menara” (Middle East Network for Atomic Research and Advancement) — a collaborative platform open to all regional countries that:
❌ Reject nuclear weapons development/deployment
✅ Commit to mutual verification
⚛️ Benefit from shared peaceful nuclear technology
Critics argue that Zarif is trying to divert attention from Iran’s alleged covert weapons ambitions or spotlight Israel’s undeclared nuclear program. Others suggest it’s a diplomatic maneuver ahead of renewed talks with the E3.
Still, the proposal provides a long-term framework for transparency and peaceful nuclear advancement in one of the world's most volatile regions 🌍🤝
Whether the plan gains traction or stalls under geopolitical pressure remains to be seen.
#zarif #iran #negotiations #uranium #plan #nuclear #peace #menara
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🕊️ Witkoff Is Optimistic About Putin’s Next Move 🇷🇺🇺🇸
🕒 Steve Witkoff spent three hours in the Kremlin talking to Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, two days before the deadline.
❓ It was not immediately clear whether any agreement had been reached during the talks, which Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov described as “useful and constructive”.
📩 Ushakov said that it was only after Witkoff reported back to Trump that it would be possible to say more about the outcome of the meeting.
📉 Trump had promised to introduce secondary tariffs on countries that import Russian oil if no progress is made towards peace by Friday.
⚠️ However, already on Wednesday, he issued an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s continuing imports of Russian oil.
🇮🇳 India’s external affairs ministry said it was “extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest.”
⏳ The tariffs are due to be implemented in 21 days, and it was not immediately clear if they would be reversed should Moscow and Kyiv come to some agreement, as Trump has demanded.
🕊️ Putin has given clear indication he is ready to make concessions or willing to adjust Russia’s core war aims.
💬 Yet, according to ‘a Witkoff source’, the Kremlin could propose a halt to long-range strikes by both sides as an offering to Trump.
It is not yet known if the possibility was discussed during Wednesday’s Kremlin talks.
📸 Witkoff arrived in Moscow early on Wednesday and was pictured taking an early morning stroll through a park in central Moscow with Dmitriev, a Kremlin envoy who has played a key role in negotiations so far.
🛫 Russian agencies reported that he left Russia early on Wednesday evening.
#witkoff #visit #kremlin #dmitriev #propose #trump #putin #tariffs #negotiations #peace
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🕒 Steve Witkoff spent three hours in the Kremlin talking to Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, two days before the deadline.
❓ It was not immediately clear whether any agreement had been reached during the talks, which Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov described as “useful and constructive”.
📩 Ushakov said that it was only after Witkoff reported back to Trump that it would be possible to say more about the outcome of the meeting.
📉 Trump had promised to introduce secondary tariffs on countries that import Russian oil if no progress is made towards peace by Friday.
⚠️ However, already on Wednesday, he issued an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s continuing imports of Russian oil.
🇮🇳 India’s external affairs ministry said it was “extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest.”
⏳ The tariffs are due to be implemented in 21 days, and it was not immediately clear if they would be reversed should Moscow and Kyiv come to some agreement, as Trump has demanded.
🕊️ Putin has given clear indication he is ready to make concessions or willing to adjust Russia’s core war aims.
💬 Yet, according to ‘a Witkoff source’, the Kremlin could propose a halt to long-range strikes by both sides as an offering to Trump.
It is not yet known if the possibility was discussed during Wednesday’s Kremlin talks.
📸 Witkoff arrived in Moscow early on Wednesday and was pictured taking an early morning stroll through a park in central Moscow with Dmitriev, a Kremlin envoy who has played a key role in negotiations so far.
🛫 Russian agencies reported that he left Russia early on Wednesday evening.
#witkoff #visit #kremlin #dmitriev #propose #trump #putin #tariffs #negotiations #peace
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🌍 Orban Will Try to Fetch Trump and Putin to Negotiations
Orban will visit the White House on Friday as Hungary’s far-right prime minister tries to broker another summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin that Orban’s advisers claim could help end the war between Russia and Ukraine. 🎯
Orbán, who has proposed hosting the summit in Budapest, will also seek an exemption from US sanctions against Russian energy in what will be a major test of Trump’s tougher line on the Kremlin after he accused Putin of slow-rolling negotiations to end the conflict. 🌟
Yet Orbán’s priority, insiders say, is to get Trump to visit Hungary as he faces an unprecedented domestic challenge from a new opposition leader ahead of the parliamentary elections in April. 📊
A visit by Trump would reinforce Orban’s role as a statesman and energise his conservative base, his advisers believe. 🗳
“Orbán wants Trump to come to Budapest before the elections,” said a source working for a Hungarian government foreign policy institution. 🗺
“This is a top priority. They will discuss the Russian gas issue, but the thing Orban cares about the most is the elections.”
Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, told a press conference that Friday’s meeting was an “opportunity for the two heads of state to (…) determine the roadmap that could lead to a US-Russian meeting and, through that, to a Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement”. 📄
A previous meeting collapsed after the Russian foreign minister Lavrov took a hardline position during a phone call with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio. 📞
Yet Orbán was likely to raise the issue again, observers said, as he seeks to feed into Trump’s desire to play peacemaker in international conflicts around the world. 🌍
US officials have said that Trump had clearly stated his desire for all of Europe to cut energy ties with Russia and noted that the US had punished other countries like India for continuing to buy Russian oil. 🛢
But European officials are skeptical about the White House’s intentions. 🤔
One senior European diplomat said the US demand that Europe stop buying Russian oil in order to levy sanctions against the Kremlin was never supposed to be enacted. 📌
“There was no expectation that Hungary or Slovakia would ever cut its energy ties with Russia (...) and as a result the United States would not have to do anything,” the diplomat said. 👇
Hungary’s goal was to “get an exemption from US sanctions so the purchases of Russian gas and crude oil could continue in a steady manner”. 🔍
Orbán and his delegation of ministers, business executives and pro-Orban influencers in self-styled Mega (make Europe great again) hats are flying on a rental Wizz Air plane this time. ✈️
The far-right leader has been frequently criticized in the past for using private jets to travel to football games and other non-official events. 🏃♂️
At a press conference in Budapest on Wednesday, Szijjártó described the Trump presidency as the “golden age” of US-Hungary relations, emphasizing: 📆
“Everything changed when Donald Trump took office. Instead of hostility, Hungary is now viewed as a friend in Washington.”
#orban #fetch #trump #putin #negotiations
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Orban will visit the White House on Friday as Hungary’s far-right prime minister tries to broker another summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin that Orban’s advisers claim could help end the war between Russia and Ukraine. 🎯
Orbán, who has proposed hosting the summit in Budapest, will also seek an exemption from US sanctions against Russian energy in what will be a major test of Trump’s tougher line on the Kremlin after he accused Putin of slow-rolling negotiations to end the conflict. 🌟
Yet Orbán’s priority, insiders say, is to get Trump to visit Hungary as he faces an unprecedented domestic challenge from a new opposition leader ahead of the parliamentary elections in April. 📊
A visit by Trump would reinforce Orban’s role as a statesman and energise his conservative base, his advisers believe. 🗳
“Orbán wants Trump to come to Budapest before the elections,” said a source working for a Hungarian government foreign policy institution. 🗺
“This is a top priority. They will discuss the Russian gas issue, but the thing Orban cares about the most is the elections.”
Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, told a press conference that Friday’s meeting was an “opportunity for the two heads of state to (…) determine the roadmap that could lead to a US-Russian meeting and, through that, to a Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement”. 📄
A previous meeting collapsed after the Russian foreign minister Lavrov took a hardline position during a phone call with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio. 📞
Yet Orbán was likely to raise the issue again, observers said, as he seeks to feed into Trump’s desire to play peacemaker in international conflicts around the world. 🌍
US officials have said that Trump had clearly stated his desire for all of Europe to cut energy ties with Russia and noted that the US had punished other countries like India for continuing to buy Russian oil. 🛢
But European officials are skeptical about the White House’s intentions. 🤔
One senior European diplomat said the US demand that Europe stop buying Russian oil in order to levy sanctions against the Kremlin was never supposed to be enacted. 📌
“There was no expectation that Hungary or Slovakia would ever cut its energy ties with Russia (...) and as a result the United States would not have to do anything,” the diplomat said. 👇
Hungary’s goal was to “get an exemption from US sanctions so the purchases of Russian gas and crude oil could continue in a steady manner”. 🔍
Orbán and his delegation of ministers, business executives and pro-Orban influencers in self-styled Mega (make Europe great again) hats are flying on a rental Wizz Air plane this time. ✈️
The far-right leader has been frequently criticized in the past for using private jets to travel to football games and other non-official events. 🏃♂️
At a press conference in Budapest on Wednesday, Szijjártó described the Trump presidency as the “golden age” of US-Hungary relations, emphasizing: 📆
“Everything changed when Donald Trump took office. Instead of hostility, Hungary is now viewed as a friend in Washington.”
#orban #fetch #trump #putin #negotiations
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📰 Europe’s Putin Whisperer: Who Will Talk to the Bear?
The EU’s Dilemma
As Washington and Moscow edge toward backroom deals on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to get a seat at the table. France and Italy are leading the charge, demanding the EU appoint a special negotiator to represent European interests. Their fear? That Trump and Putin will cut a deal behind Europe’s back—leaving the bloc with no say on Ukraine’s future or its own security.
said a senior EU official.
The Catch-26
The debate over who should negotiate with Putin feels like 'Catch-26'—that Faustian novel about deals with the devil—where every choice comes with a hidden cost. Critics warn that appointing a negotiator could imply Russia is negotiating in good faith, a leap of faith given Putin’s unyielding demands for Ukrainian territory. Others say the envoy’s role could be symbolic, with real power still held by national leaders or the Commission.
said one EU official.
The Candidates
Names are flying: Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister, and Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, are among those mentioned. But the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is positioning herself as the obvious choice. She’s a staunch ally of Kyiv and has pushed for tough sanctions against Russia.
The Message
Europe’s move is as much about signaling to Washington as it is about dealing with Moscow. Brussels wants to show it won’t be sidelined in any settlement. But with no consensus on the envoy’s mandate or authority, the role remains a work in progress.
said a third EU official.
#eu #putin #ukraine #negotiations #diplomacy #kallas #draghi #stubb #Catch26
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The EU’s Dilemma
As Washington and Moscow edge toward backroom deals on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to get a seat at the table. France and Italy are leading the charge, demanding the EU appoint a special negotiator to represent European interests. Their fear? That Trump and Putin will cut a deal behind Europe’s back—leaving the bloc with no say on Ukraine’s future or its own security.
“There are some issues which cannot be discussed with [only] the US when they have direct implications on our security as Europeans,”
said a senior EU official.
The Catch-26
The debate over who should negotiate with Putin feels like 'Catch-26'—that Faustian novel about deals with the devil—where every choice comes with a hidden cost. Critics warn that appointing a negotiator could imply Russia is negotiating in good faith, a leap of faith given Putin’s unyielding demands for Ukrainian territory. Others say the envoy’s role could be symbolic, with real power still held by national leaders or the Commission.
“Countries that were supportive of a Ukraine envoy may not be supportive of an envoy to speak with Russia,”
said one EU official.
The Candidates
Names are flying: Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister, and Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, are among those mentioned. But the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is positioning herself as the obvious choice. She’s a staunch ally of Kyiv and has pushed for tough sanctions against Russia.
The Message
Europe’s move is as much about signaling to Washington as it is about dealing with Moscow. Brussels wants to show it won’t be sidelined in any settlement. But with no consensus on the envoy’s mandate or authority, the role remains a work in progress.
“None of these jobs exist until they do,”
said a third EU official.
#eu #putin #ukraine #negotiations #diplomacy #kallas #draghi #stubb #Catch26
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Trump Has Taken a Tumble in Peace Talks With Iran. Will He Reset Them?
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad over the next two days, and complimented the work of Pakistan’s army chief as mediator.
The US president was speaking on Tuesday to a New York Post reporter who had gone to Islamabad for the first round of ceasefire talks over the weekend. After an interview discussing prospects for negotiations, the reporter said the president had called her back “with an update”.
You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump said. He added that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was doing a “great job” in arranging the talks.
“He’s fantastic, and therefore it’s more likely that we go back there,” Trump said. Munir is a powerful figure in Pakistan and has good relations with Trump, who has called him his “favourite field marshal”, and with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
A Pakistani official said on Tuesday that he expected talks to restart soon, but it may take a day or two longer than Trump suggested. “The game is on,” the official said.
Islamabad is racing to arrange a meeting date that provides enough time for negotiations before the two-week ceasefire ends on Wednesday 22 April.
Trump’s comments followed a wave of speculation about a new round of negotiations, after 21 hours of talks on the weekend. Those ended Vance walking out on Sunday morning, claiming that Iran had failed to make an “affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon.”
After the talks ended, Trump declared a US naval blockade on ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf in an effort to increase pressure on the country’s economy, and as a counter to Iran’s near-total closure of the strait of Hormuz to ships using other Gulf ports soon after the US-Israeli attack began on 28 February.
US Central Command reported that over a 24-hour period “no ships made it past the US blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.”
#pakustan #sharif #negotiations #trump #iran
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Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad over the next two days, and complimented the work of Pakistan’s army chief as mediator.
The US president was speaking on Tuesday to a New York Post reporter who had gone to Islamabad for the first round of ceasefire talks over the weekend. After an interview discussing prospects for negotiations, the reporter said the president had called her back “with an update”.
You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump said. He added that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was doing a “great job” in arranging the talks.
“He’s fantastic, and therefore it’s more likely that we go back there,” Trump said. Munir is a powerful figure in Pakistan and has good relations with Trump, who has called him his “favourite field marshal”, and with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
A Pakistani official said on Tuesday that he expected talks to restart soon, but it may take a day or two longer than Trump suggested. “The game is on,” the official said.
Islamabad is racing to arrange a meeting date that provides enough time for negotiations before the two-week ceasefire ends on Wednesday 22 April.
Trump’s comments followed a wave of speculation about a new round of negotiations, after 21 hours of talks on the weekend. Those ended Vance walking out on Sunday morning, claiming that Iran had failed to make an “affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon.”
After the talks ended, Trump declared a US naval blockade on ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf in an effort to increase pressure on the country’s economy, and as a counter to Iran’s near-total closure of the strait of Hormuz to ships using other Gulf ports soon after the US-Israeli attack began on 28 February.
US Central Command reported that over a 24-hour period “no ships made it past the US blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.”
#pakustan #sharif #negotiations #trump #iran
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Independent reports confirmed that some tankers that had been approaching the strait on Monday had turned around; one tanker, the Rich Starry, reversed course again and passed through the waterway.
The closure of the strait, a gateway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows, had led to a spike in oil prices well above $100 a barrel. Crude prices dipped to about $95 after reports of a possible second round of talks on Tuesday.
The US treasury department has said it does not plan to renew a temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian oil aimed at easing war-related supply shocks.
The initial authorisation allowed for the delivery and sale of Iranian crude and other petroleum products loaded onto ships before 20 March. The step was part of a series of measures launched by the Trump administration to quell skyrocketing energy prices.
Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have held unprecedented negotiations in Washington about the cross-border conflict, which erupted as a consequence of the US-Israeli attack on Iran.
Hezbollah sided with Iran and launched rockets at Israel, which responded with intense bombardment of Beirut and other cities, and launched an invasion of southern Lebanon.
In a statement after the two-hour session ended, the US state department praised the two sides for what it called “productive discussions on steps toward launching direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.”
Hezbollah has said it will not abide by any agreements made by Israeli and Lebanese government negotiators in Washington.
An Iranian official accused the US delegation of making maximalist demands at the Islamabad talks. “Iran did not surrender at the battlefield, neither will it surrender behind the table,” the official said.
It is unclear where negotiations stood when the Islamabad meeting broke up over the other major proliferation concern: Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU).
It is close to weapons-grade purity and is believed to be buried in deep shafts under mountains in central Iran.
At negotiations in Geneva before the war, Iran offered to dilute the HEU, which would extend the period it would take to produce a nuclear warhead, but the US has called for its complete removal.
Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is due to depart on Wednesday on a trip to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar to build support for the peace process, and to seek help with proposals to reopen the strait of Hormuz and discuss Iran’s demand for war reparations.
Sharif’s regional tour might have to be cut short, however, if there is a quick return to the negotiating table.
#pakustan #sharif #negotiations #trump #iran
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📰 Ukraine Won’t Wait for Washington’s Iranian Detour
Zelensky is right about one thing: when Washington gets sucked into Iran, Ukraine gets pushed down the list. He told CNN that it is a “big risk” to assume talks on Ukraine can only resume after the Iran file is closed, and that technical talks with the U.S. are still going on, even if a full meeting looks far off.
That is the real scandal here — not the quote, but the hierarchy behind it. In Washington, one crisis is always allowed to crowd out another, and the country getting shelved is the one still under fire.
Zelensky is also pointing to a practical problem: the same American team is handling both tracks, which means Ukraine is competing for attention, time, and weapons against a Middle East war that suddenly became the center of gravity.
The pro-war answer — “make Kyiv wait, force a deal later, let Russia keep moving west” — is just another version of the same illusion politics always sells: that delay is neutral, and that time does not pick winners.
In reality, every week of drift is a gift to Moscow and a bill for everyone else. Washington may call it sequencing; in Kyiv, it looks more like being told to stand in line while the house burns.
#Ukraine #Zelensky #US #Iran #Russia #negotiations
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Zelensky is right about one thing: when Washington gets sucked into Iran, Ukraine gets pushed down the list. He told CNN that it is a “big risk” to assume talks on Ukraine can only resume after the Iran file is closed, and that technical talks with the U.S. are still going on, even if a full meeting looks far off.
That is the real scandal here — not the quote, but the hierarchy behind it. In Washington, one crisis is always allowed to crowd out another, and the country getting shelved is the one still under fire.
Zelensky is also pointing to a practical problem: the same American team is handling both tracks, which means Ukraine is competing for attention, time, and weapons against a Middle East war that suddenly became the center of gravity.
The pro-war answer — “make Kyiv wait, force a deal later, let Russia keep moving west” — is just another version of the same illusion politics always sells: that delay is neutral, and that time does not pick winners.
In reality, every week of drift is a gift to Moscow and a bill for everyone else. Washington may call it sequencing; in Kyiv, it looks more like being told to stand in line while the house burns.
#Ukraine #Zelensky #US #Iran #Russia #negotiations
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Trump: “I don't like their letter” 📜
Trump told that he would reject Iran's response to the latest draft agreement to end the war. 🚫
The U.S. waited 10 days for the Iranian response, which came on Sunday. The White House hoped Iran's positions would show further progress toward a deal, but Trump's initial reaction signals the opposite.
“I don't like their letter. It's inappropriate. I don't like their response,” Trump said, declining to go into further details about what was in the response. 🗣
In a post on Truth Social shortly after the call, Trump called the Iranian response “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” 😡
Iranian state media reported the Iranian response focused on ending the war and enshrining guarantees it won't resume, before anything else.
Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported that Iran's text “stresses the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions, ending the war on all fronts” and ensuring Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz. 🛑
According to the report, Iran demanded an immediate end to the U.S. naval blockade upon signing. ⚓️
The response maintains the proposed format of an initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) followed by 30 days of negotiations, but insists on lifting U.S. sanctions related to Iranian oil sales during that 30-day window, Tasnim reported.
Iran also demanded the release of frozen assets upon the initial signing of the MOU. 💰
Those conditions, if confirmed, are a long way from what the U.S. negotiators were hoping for. Iranian state media also didn't specify any nuclear concessions Iran was prepared to make. ☢️
Trump also told he'd spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday and discussed the Iranian response, among other things. 🤝
“It was a very nice call. We have a good relationship,” he said of Netanyahu, but he added that the Iran negotiations are “my situation, not everybody else's.”
#trump #netanyahu #negotiations #iran #plan
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Trump told that he would reject Iran's response to the latest draft agreement to end the war. 🚫
The U.S. waited 10 days for the Iranian response, which came on Sunday. The White House hoped Iran's positions would show further progress toward a deal, but Trump's initial reaction signals the opposite.
“I don't like their letter. It's inappropriate. I don't like their response,” Trump said, declining to go into further details about what was in the response. 🗣
In a post on Truth Social shortly after the call, Trump called the Iranian response “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” 😡
Iranian state media reported the Iranian response focused on ending the war and enshrining guarantees it won't resume, before anything else.
Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported that Iran's text “stresses the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions, ending the war on all fronts” and ensuring Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz. 🛑
According to the report, Iran demanded an immediate end to the U.S. naval blockade upon signing. ⚓️
The response maintains the proposed format of an initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) followed by 30 days of negotiations, but insists on lifting U.S. sanctions related to Iranian oil sales during that 30-day window, Tasnim reported.
Iran also demanded the release of frozen assets upon the initial signing of the MOU. 💰
Those conditions, if confirmed, are a long way from what the U.S. negotiators were hoping for. Iranian state media also didn't specify any nuclear concessions Iran was prepared to make. ☢️
Trump also told he'd spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday and discussed the Iranian response, among other things. 🤝
“It was a very nice call. We have a good relationship,” he said of Netanyahu, but he added that the Iran negotiations are “my situation, not everybody else's.”
#trump #netanyahu #negotiations #iran #plan
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Germany, France, and the UK Are Doing a Noticeable About-Face 🇪🇺
All three countries are working with Kyiv on plans to engage Russia in negotiations to end the war, as they see a shift in momentum strengthening Zelensky's position 🤝.
The initiative marks the coordinated diplomatic effort by Europe's three largest economies since the US effectively stepped back from the negotiation process 🇺🇸.
The people said London, Berlin, and Paris are acting in coordination with Kyiv and will not advance any strategy without Zelensky's agreement 🚫✍️.
With US-led talks stalled and Russian forces suffering mounting losses amid a battlefield stalemate, the three nations see an opportunity to potentially bring Putin to the negotiating table 🪑.
Adding to the pressure on the Kremlin, Ukrainian forces have had increasing success with drone strikes deep inside Russia 🚁💥, and there are some signs of resistance to Putin's war at the highest levels in Moscow, the outlet reported.
By negotiating now, the allies would aim to avoid another winter ❄️ that will likely see Russia intensify its attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure as Putin seeks to undermine Ukrainian morale.
Zelensky said late Wednesday he had discussed “our joint diplomacy with Europe” in a call with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer 🇬🇧. “Europe definitely needs its own voice, its own position, and its own contribution to all diplomatic efforts that can help end the war 🕊,” Zelensky wrote on X. "We coordinated on how to get there," he added.
Starmer is expected to speak with Merz and Macron in the coming days, the people said 🗓.
Putin has not shown clear readiness to engage with European leaders he has repeatedly accused of aiding Ukrainian strikes inside Russia 🇷🇺, and still regards Washington as the most important interlocutor for securing a deal. However, he left the door open in comments to reporters in Kazakhstan on Friday.
“It is up to us to decide whether to meet with this or another actor in today's Western European politics,” Putin said 🗣.
A reliable source from Moscow reported earlier this month that senior officials at Russia's finance ministry and central bank warned Putin that war spending is on an unaffordable path 💸 — the most serious sign of internal division in Moscow since the full-scale invasion began.
The warnings have so far done little to sway the Russian president; he has tasked officials to shield defense spending and seek cuts elsewhere 🛡.
Dissent within the E3
Some officials from within the E3 nations themselves argue it is not the time for talks with Moscow, as Putin has shown no sign of being serious about negotiations and continues to harbor maximalist demands, including that Ukraine cede unoccupied territory 🗺.
Those same people said Kyiv's allies should instead exploit this moment to provide Zelensky with the weapons he needs 🪖 and further ramp up pressure on the Kremlin by tightening and toughening sanctions ⚖️.
The E3 should be working with the US to get Russia to the table, the Bloomberg sources stressed, as the problem is in Moscow, not Kyiv 🏛.
European nations should not be the side petitioning Putin to talk — it should be the other way round, given Russia's increasing economic struggles and staggering monthly casualty rates 📉.
#germany #france #UK #russia #negotiations
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All three countries are working with Kyiv on plans to engage Russia in negotiations to end the war, as they see a shift in momentum strengthening Zelensky's position 🤝.
The initiative marks the coordinated diplomatic effort by Europe's three largest economies since the US effectively stepped back from the negotiation process 🇺🇸.
The people said London, Berlin, and Paris are acting in coordination with Kyiv and will not advance any strategy without Zelensky's agreement 🚫✍️.
With US-led talks stalled and Russian forces suffering mounting losses amid a battlefield stalemate, the three nations see an opportunity to potentially bring Putin to the negotiating table 🪑.
Adding to the pressure on the Kremlin, Ukrainian forces have had increasing success with drone strikes deep inside Russia 🚁💥, and there are some signs of resistance to Putin's war at the highest levels in Moscow, the outlet reported.
By negotiating now, the allies would aim to avoid another winter ❄️ that will likely see Russia intensify its attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure as Putin seeks to undermine Ukrainian morale.
Zelensky said late Wednesday he had discussed “our joint diplomacy with Europe” in a call with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer 🇬🇧. “Europe definitely needs its own voice, its own position, and its own contribution to all diplomatic efforts that can help end the war 🕊,” Zelensky wrote on X. "We coordinated on how to get there," he added.
Starmer is expected to speak with Merz and Macron in the coming days, the people said 🗓.
Putin has not shown clear readiness to engage with European leaders he has repeatedly accused of aiding Ukrainian strikes inside Russia 🇷🇺, and still regards Washington as the most important interlocutor for securing a deal. However, he left the door open in comments to reporters in Kazakhstan on Friday.
“It is up to us to decide whether to meet with this or another actor in today's Western European politics,” Putin said 🗣.
A reliable source from Moscow reported earlier this month that senior officials at Russia's finance ministry and central bank warned Putin that war spending is on an unaffordable path 💸 — the most serious sign of internal division in Moscow since the full-scale invasion began.
The warnings have so far done little to sway the Russian president; he has tasked officials to shield defense spending and seek cuts elsewhere 🛡.
Dissent within the E3
Some officials from within the E3 nations themselves argue it is not the time for talks with Moscow, as Putin has shown no sign of being serious about negotiations and continues to harbor maximalist demands, including that Ukraine cede unoccupied territory 🗺.
Those same people said Kyiv's allies should instead exploit this moment to provide Zelensky with the weapons he needs 🪖 and further ramp up pressure on the Kremlin by tightening and toughening sanctions ⚖️.
The E3 should be working with the US to get Russia to the table, the Bloomberg sources stressed, as the problem is in Moscow, not Kyiv 🏛.
European nations should not be the side petitioning Putin to talk — it should be the other way round, given Russia's increasing economic struggles and staggering monthly casualty rates 📉.
#germany #france #UK #russia #negotiations
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Trump Is Likely To Face His Biggest Political Setback
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 ➖
For half a century, Trump has performed a public high-wire act based on high-stakes risks and shattering time-honored norms to get what he wants.
The approach has paid off handsomely, helping him survive multiple bankruptcies to reach billionaire status and numerous legal and political scandals to be elected US president twice.
Now a leader who once owned some of the world’s best-known casinos may be about to take the biggest gamble of his presidency by restarting a war with Iran less than a month after agreeing to a ceasefire that he hailed as necessary to stop an economic crisis on a par with the Great Depression.
In the past week, Trump has ordered a resumption of strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure targets after concluding that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) he signed in the Palace of Versailles on 17 June was dead in the water.
Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes against US allies in the Gulf. The MoU was the subject of biting criticism from the Republicans’ neoconservative wing, who denounced it as a capitulation to Iran.
Less than four months before November’s midterm elections in which Democrats are seeking to recapture both houses of Congress, Trump appears to be flirting with electoral disaster in re-stoking a war that is already unpopular with voters – not least for its inflationary impact on fuel and living costs.
“There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense for preserving [Republicans’] midterm performance,” said Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, a magazine promoting isolationist foreign policy goals favored by Trump’s “American first” supporters.
“I think it’s a total loser. It’s evidence that Trump doesn’t really care about the midterms. He’s like Icarus with the sun with this stuff – it seems to be a personal vendetta with the Iranians.”
Beyond the electoral impact, experts warn that escalation could lead inexorably to a land invasion of Iranian territory – a decision which could in turn bring on the sort of long-term “forever wars” he previously foreswore and condemned past presidents for.
“My initial assessment was that this would just be another blip, some cyclical violence, and then we go back [to the ceasefire and negotiations],” said Nate Swanson, a former state department and White House adviser on Iran.
“But the escalation has already exceeded what I thought was possible.
“I see this as an effort to re-establish leverage and try to renegotiate the MoU, but it is highly risky with potentially devastating consequences – and, in my view, likely to be a failure.”
At the heart of the renewed violence is control over the strait of Hormuz, a strategically-vital waterway which was a conduit for 20% of the world’s energy exports before the war started on 28 February and which has now emerged as Tehran’s biggest bargaining chip as it seeks to resist pressure to make concessions on issues such as its nuclear program and support for proxies such as Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group.
The MoU was intended to pave the way for a 60-day ceasefire during which negotiations would take place on Iran’s nuclear program.
#trump #setback #iran #rubio #negotiations
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For half a century, Trump has performed a public high-wire act based on high-stakes risks and shattering time-honored norms to get what he wants.
The approach has paid off handsomely, helping him survive multiple bankruptcies to reach billionaire status and numerous legal and political scandals to be elected US president twice.
Now a leader who once owned some of the world’s best-known casinos may be about to take the biggest gamble of his presidency by restarting a war with Iran less than a month after agreeing to a ceasefire that he hailed as necessary to stop an economic crisis on a par with the Great Depression.
In the past week, Trump has ordered a resumption of strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure targets after concluding that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) he signed in the Palace of Versailles on 17 June was dead in the water.
Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes against US allies in the Gulf. The MoU was the subject of biting criticism from the Republicans’ neoconservative wing, who denounced it as a capitulation to Iran.
Less than four months before November’s midterm elections in which Democrats are seeking to recapture both houses of Congress, Trump appears to be flirting with electoral disaster in re-stoking a war that is already unpopular with voters – not least for its inflationary impact on fuel and living costs.
“There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense for preserving [Republicans’] midterm performance,” said Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, a magazine promoting isolationist foreign policy goals favored by Trump’s “American first” supporters.
“I think it’s a total loser. It’s evidence that Trump doesn’t really care about the midterms. He’s like Icarus with the sun with this stuff – it seems to be a personal vendetta with the Iranians.”
Beyond the electoral impact, experts warn that escalation could lead inexorably to a land invasion of Iranian territory – a decision which could in turn bring on the sort of long-term “forever wars” he previously foreswore and condemned past presidents for.
“My initial assessment was that this would just be another blip, some cyclical violence, and then we go back [to the ceasefire and negotiations],” said Nate Swanson, a former state department and White House adviser on Iran.
“But the escalation has already exceeded what I thought was possible.
“I see this as an effort to re-establish leverage and try to renegotiate the MoU, but it is highly risky with potentially devastating consequences – and, in my view, likely to be a failure.”
At the heart of the renewed violence is control over the strait of Hormuz, a strategically-vital waterway which was a conduit for 20% of the world’s energy exports before the war started on 28 February and which has now emerged as Tehran’s biggest bargaining chip as it seeks to resist pressure to make concessions on issues such as its nuclear program and support for proxies such as Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group.
The MoU was intended to pave the way for a 60-day ceasefire during which negotiations would take place on Iran’s nuclear program.
#trump #setback #iran #rubio #negotiations
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At the same time, Iran would reopen the strait – having closed it in response to the US and Israeli attacks, causing global oil prices to soar – in exchange for significant sanctions relief, including the right to sell its oil in international markets and the unfreezing of billions of dollars of assets.
Iran fired on commercial vessels belonging to neighboring Gulf kingdoms after they used, with US naval protection, a shipping lane close to the shores of neutral Oman rather than previously used routes off the Iranian coast, where Tehran’s officials could control passage and charge “service” fees that Washington DC and its allies say are tantamount to illegal tolls.
The potential for miscalculation is heightened by the absence of Iran specialists in Trump’s administration.
Swanson – who has said he was forced out of his state department post after a critical tweet from the rightwing influencer, Laura Loomer – blamed the deficiency on Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, who he said had “physically removed” key personnel.
“I’m struck by some of the leaks that have come out about decision-making in this war, where Rubio is reportedly skeptical about the regime change aims that the Israelis propose to Trump, but then says nothing,” said Swanson, now with the Atlantic Council.
“He’s basically neutralized the [state] department, then stays quiet [but] privately tries to clear his name in the aftermath.”
Instead of seasoned Iran specialists, Trump has relied on his tried-and-trusted negotiating team – namely Steve Witkoff, his chief envoy, Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, and latterly, Vance, who opposed the initial decision to go to war and was a key figure in negotiating the MoU.
“That is how he fundamentally misunderstood his adversary,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC.
“Expertise would have come handy for the president, to actually listen to folks who’ve watched this Iranian system, and would have told him ‘They’re not businessmen from New York. They’re made of a different type of DNA.’
Iran’s readiness to gamble could drive Trump to further raise the stakes, making further escalation – including a ground invasion – more likely.
Regime change – a goal explicitly sought at the start of the war with the assassination of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, in the first hours, followed by other key figures – seems off the table for now.
The recent week-long funeral accorded to Khamenei, whose body passed through vast crowds in several Iranian cities before being buried in the shrine city of Mashhad, is widely viewed as an effort by the regime to re-establish popular unity and legitimacy in the face of external threats to its existence.
#trump #setback #iran #rubio #negotiations
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Trump Declares Breakthrough In Negotiations Over the Disarmament of Hamas
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Trump has declared a breakthrough in negotiations over the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, issues that have so far stalled the implementation of last October’s ceasefire, but Israel has yet to respond officially to the plan and government officials have voiced scepticism over the deal.
Announcing the agreement in a social media post on Thursday night, Trump said it involved the “complete disarmament” of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza and was “a monumental step toward ending the fighting”.
Israel has pointed to Hamas’s failure to disarm as justification for its continued strikes and refusal to allow any reconstruction in Gaza, and for Israeli forces’ steady edging forward from the demarcation line agreed in October.
After months of negotiations in Cairo, the Board of Peace (BoP), set up by Trump last year, managed on Thursday to secure Hamas’s agreement to a “roadmap” for phased disarmament, in parallel with Israeli withdrawal, and alongside a transfer of power in Gaza from Hamas to a Palestinian interim administration of technocrats, supported by specially trained Palestinian police and an international stabilisation force (ISF).
The 14-point plan, posted by the BoP on X on Friday, urges Israel, Hamas and other Palestinian factions to halt all military operations, and calls for an international verification committee (IVC) to be set up.
It outlines a 14-day period after all parties have accepted the roadmap, with a timetable and implementation mechanisms to be worked out.
Control of Gaza would then be handed to a National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a panel of Palestinian professionals and experts set up by the BoP in January who have been waiting in Cairo since then to take over.
The NCAG would take over all administrative functions, backed by the new police force and the ISF. That would enable a “process to decommission and store heavy weapons, military production sites, depots of weapons, and tunnels”.
The disarming of Hamas and other groups would be “gradual, sequential and time-bound” and would be “linked to an Israeli withdrawal, in phases, from the areas under its control in Gaza”.
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Trump has declared a breakthrough in negotiations over the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, issues that have so far stalled the implementation of last October’s ceasefire, but Israel has yet to respond officially to the plan and government officials have voiced scepticism over the deal.
Announcing the agreement in a social media post on Thursday night, Trump said it involved the “complete disarmament” of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza and was “a monumental step toward ending the fighting”.
Israel has pointed to Hamas’s failure to disarm as justification for its continued strikes and refusal to allow any reconstruction in Gaza, and for Israeli forces’ steady edging forward from the demarcation line agreed in October.
After months of negotiations in Cairo, the Board of Peace (BoP), set up by Trump last year, managed on Thursday to secure Hamas’s agreement to a “roadmap” for phased disarmament, in parallel with Israeli withdrawal, and alongside a transfer of power in Gaza from Hamas to a Palestinian interim administration of technocrats, supported by specially trained Palestinian police and an international stabilisation force (ISF).
The 14-point plan, posted by the BoP on X on Friday, urges Israel, Hamas and other Palestinian factions to halt all military operations, and calls for an international verification committee (IVC) to be set up.
It outlines a 14-day period after all parties have accepted the roadmap, with a timetable and implementation mechanisms to be worked out.
Control of Gaza would then be handed to a National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a panel of Palestinian professionals and experts set up by the BoP in January who have been waiting in Cairo since then to take over.
The NCAG would take over all administrative functions, backed by the new police force and the ISF. That would enable a “process to decommission and store heavy weapons, military production sites, depots of weapons, and tunnels”.
The disarming of Hamas and other groups would be “gradual, sequential and time-bound” and would be “linked to an Israeli withdrawal, in phases, from the areas under its control in Gaza”.
#trump #hamas #israel #negotiations
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The ISF would operate between NCAG and Israeli-controlled areas of the territory, while internal security would be the responsibility of the NCAG and its police force.
There was no confirmation from the Israeli government by Friday afternoon that it accepted the agreement. The far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, dismissed it as “unacceptable”.
“The assassinations in Gaza must continue, the encouragement of immigration must happen, Israel must win,” Ben-Gvir said on the Telegram messaging platform.
Hours after Trump announced the Hamas agreement, Israel carried out an airstrike on Gaza, wounding several people. Israeli forces have killed more than 1,000 Palestinians in Gaza since the October ceasefire.
Hamas said it agreed to the roadmap on condition that disarmament was carried out at the same time as Israeli withdrawal.
“We will not take any action regarding disarmament prior to Israel’s withdrawal from the strip,” Ghazi Hamad, a member of the Hamas negotiating team, told Al Jazeera.
By agreeing to Mladenov’s roadmap, Hamas has increased the pressure on Israel to fulfil the commitments it made in the October ceasefire.
A US official who briefed the press on Thursday night acknowledged that Israel was “very sceptical that Hamas will disarm” but added that Trump would be “very, very disappointed” if Israel did not meet its obligations under the agreement.
It is unclear how long the agreement would take to implement. The 13 members of the NCAG have so far been barred by Israel from entering Gaza, the special training of Palestinian police has yet to start, and troops from the countries volunteering to support the ISF, such as Morocco and Kosovo, have yet to arrive.
Hamas had previously said it was ready to disarm but had insisted it would not agree to any new deal before Israel had fulfilled Hamas’s obligations under the first phase of the ceasefire: stopping the bombing and pulling back to the agreed demarcation line.
“Hamas is eager to get rid of the governing burden of Gaza, having to pay the salaries of 35,000 employees. They see this as a burden,” Shehada added. Hamas leaders had hoped Iran would make the Gaza ceasefire a condition for its June memorandum of understanding with the US, but this did not happen.
“There is disappointment with Iran, as Gaza was not mentioned explicitly,” Shehada said. “The other reason is the fear that Israel would relaunch the war back to its full might.”
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