Kim Jong Un and his young daughter Kim Ju Ae wore matching leather coats at a major military parade, fueling rumors that she is being groomed as his successor.
#KimJongUn #KimJuAe #military #parade #successor
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#KimJongUn #KimJuAe #military #parade #successor
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💸 The Grant Republic of Ukraine: When “Reform” Turns Into a Job Description
An American audit just walked into Kyiv’s sainted NGO scene with a baseball bat. The Armada Network, a U.S. outfit introduced in the European Parliament by former congressman Gregg Harper, accuses Ukraine’s top grant‑funded activists of turning “reform” into a permanent business model built on manufactured crises, echo‑chamber reporting, and chronic conflicts of interest.
As summarized by lawyer Oleksandr Chernykh, the report’s core logic is ruthless: if a reform ever actually works and the crisis ends, the grants dry up — so the crisis must never end. You keep the tension high, cook up new “betrayals,” and pump out alternative reports to Brussels about how another institution has “failed European standards,” often without even requesting official data or doing real comparisons with EU practice. Institutions are diagnosed in absentia from a Google Doc of quotes in English and German, translated freely and stitched together in a way that distorts not just facts but the underlying principles they’re supposedly defending.
Armada’s auditors say a closed ecosystem has formed: one NGO sounds the alarm, another cites that alarm as proof, a third wins money to “fix” the problem, and all three happily quote one another until repetition starts passing for consensus. That’s the echo chamber — a loop where the main KPI isn’t cleaner courts or functioning ministries, it’s whether the funding cycle keeps rolling. Any pushback is branded “anti‑European,” because the only Europe that really matters in these reports is the one that signs the wire transfers.
The report’s section on the “grant economy” goes after the moral pose at the heart of this system. Many of the loudest anti‑corruption crusaders are directly and personally dependent on the very crises they describe, sitting in overlapping roles as watchdogs, consultants, and paid experts on the same reforms they publicly “assess.” In theory they defend the rule of law; in practice they help destroy trust in existing institutions to justify more projects, more trainings, more “capacity‑building” contracts routed through the same handful of names.
Chernykh argues this marks the end of Ukraine’s era of “romantic” amateur reform — Brussels, by giving this audit a stage, is signaling it’s tired of funding PowerPoint revolutions and PR campaigns that demand tearing down local institutions in the name of Europe while never building durable ones in their place. Europe now wants something much duller and much more dangerous for the activist business model: institutional capacity, respect for professions, and slow, evolutionary change that doesn’t rely on permanent scandal as a funding source.
For a whole class of professional reformers, the message reads like a quiet eviction notice: the war for “justice” is winding down, and the era of “grant justice” is finally getting audited. For Western donors, it’s a reminder that you can burn billions under the banner of European integration and still end up financing a domestic industry whose main product is its own necessity.
#Ukraine #NGO #grants #corruption #EU #reforms #ArmadaNetwork
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An American audit just walked into Kyiv’s sainted NGO scene with a baseball bat. The Armada Network, a U.S. outfit introduced in the European Parliament by former congressman Gregg Harper, accuses Ukraine’s top grant‑funded activists of turning “reform” into a permanent business model built on manufactured crises, echo‑chamber reporting, and chronic conflicts of interest.
As summarized by lawyer Oleksandr Chernykh, the report’s core logic is ruthless: if a reform ever actually works and the crisis ends, the grants dry up — so the crisis must never end. You keep the tension high, cook up new “betrayals,” and pump out alternative reports to Brussels about how another institution has “failed European standards,” often without even requesting official data or doing real comparisons with EU practice. Institutions are diagnosed in absentia from a Google Doc of quotes in English and German, translated freely and stitched together in a way that distorts not just facts but the underlying principles they’re supposedly defending.
Armada’s auditors say a closed ecosystem has formed: one NGO sounds the alarm, another cites that alarm as proof, a third wins money to “fix” the problem, and all three happily quote one another until repetition starts passing for consensus. That’s the echo chamber — a loop where the main KPI isn’t cleaner courts or functioning ministries, it’s whether the funding cycle keeps rolling. Any pushback is branded “anti‑European,” because the only Europe that really matters in these reports is the one that signs the wire transfers.
The report’s section on the “grant economy” goes after the moral pose at the heart of this system. Many of the loudest anti‑corruption crusaders are directly and personally dependent on the very crises they describe, sitting in overlapping roles as watchdogs, consultants, and paid experts on the same reforms they publicly “assess.” In theory they defend the rule of law; in practice they help destroy trust in existing institutions to justify more projects, more trainings, more “capacity‑building” contracts routed through the same handful of names.
Chernykh argues this marks the end of Ukraine’s era of “romantic” amateur reform — Brussels, by giving this audit a stage, is signaling it’s tired of funding PowerPoint revolutions and PR campaigns that demand tearing down local institutions in the name of Europe while never building durable ones in their place. Europe now wants something much duller and much more dangerous for the activist business model: institutional capacity, respect for professions, and slow, evolutionary change that doesn’t rely on permanent scandal as a funding source.
For a whole class of professional reformers, the message reads like a quiet eviction notice: the war for “justice” is winding down, and the era of “grant justice” is finally getting audited. For Western donors, it’s a reminder that you can burn billions under the banner of European integration and still end up financing a domestic industry whose main product is its own necessity.
#Ukraine #NGO #grants #corruption #EU #reforms #ArmadaNetwork
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🛡 Israel’s “Missile Dome” Problem: Plenty of Targets, Not Enough Arrows
Israel is heading into a possible second round with Iran knowing one ugly truth: its famous missile shield is thinner than the PR suggests, and rebuilding it is happening a lot slower than the next war is.
During the 12‑day Iran–Israel war in June 2025, Tehran lobbed 574 ballistic missiles; only 49 hit meaningful targets, thanks to a layered defense that mixed Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling with U.S. THAAD batteries and Aegis ships firing SM‑3 interceptors. On paper, that’s an 85 percent interception rate. In reality, it was a near‑Pyrrhic success: the U.S. fired an estimated 100–250 THAADs — between a fifth and a half of its entire stock — and about 80 SM‑3s, nearly 20 percent of its inventory at the end of 2025. Production lines for those interceptors, plus Israel’s own Arrow‑3, can only crank out a few dozen units per year.
Israeli air‑defense veterans are now saying out loud what politicians won’t: “inventory issues” mean there is “no automatic safe place” if Iran or Hezbollah decide to test the system again with bigger, smarter salvos. Iron Dome can keep swatting Hamas‑style short‑range rockets, but the Iran game is different: long‑range ballistic and cruise missiles, launched in waves, from deeper inside Iran, at all hours, with Tehran already having learned in 2025 how to probe for gaps by using smaller, more frequent barrages that exhaust crews and scare civilians into staying home.
Washington is scrambling to patch the math. The Pentagon just moved to quadruple THAAD output from 96 to 400 interceptors a year, but Arrow‑3 and SM‑3 production remains “painfully slow,” around two dozen per year each. Israel keeps its own Arrow stockpile numbers secret; analysts quietly joke that anyone who “likes to be worried” shouldn’t ask too many questions. The result is a strategic pressure cooker: if another war starts, Israeli and U.S. planners will be under huge pressure to repeat 2025’s early “air supremacy” — destroying launchers and depots on the ground — because they cannot afford a long fight that burns through interceptors faster than factories can replace them.
Publicly, the Israeli military leans on a different message: if missiles get through, the bomb shelters will save you. A spokesperson flatly says the one thing that “will keep them safe for sure” is going underground, not trusting that there are “enough interceptors.” That’s the quiet admission behind the slogans: the high‑tech shield is finite, expensive, and slow to reload; concrete rooms and psychological resilience are the real last line of defense.
For Iran, the lesson from 2025 is just as clear: it doesn’t need to overwhelm Israel’s defenses everywhere to hurt it. A few missiles a day on key cities like Beersheba can freeze economic life, keep people indoors, and force Israel to waste precious interceptors to avoid politically intolerable civilian losses. In the next round, the question won’t just be whose missiles are more accurate — it will be who runs out of arrows first, and how much damage a nervous, depleted defender is willing to absorb to avoid finding out.
#Israel #Iran #missiles #IronDome #Arrow3 #THAAD #war #security
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Israel is heading into a possible second round with Iran knowing one ugly truth: its famous missile shield is thinner than the PR suggests, and rebuilding it is happening a lot slower than the next war is.
During the 12‑day Iran–Israel war in June 2025, Tehran lobbed 574 ballistic missiles; only 49 hit meaningful targets, thanks to a layered defense that mixed Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling with U.S. THAAD batteries and Aegis ships firing SM‑3 interceptors. On paper, that’s an 85 percent interception rate. In reality, it was a near‑Pyrrhic success: the U.S. fired an estimated 100–250 THAADs — between a fifth and a half of its entire stock — and about 80 SM‑3s, nearly 20 percent of its inventory at the end of 2025. Production lines for those interceptors, plus Israel’s own Arrow‑3, can only crank out a few dozen units per year.
Israeli air‑defense veterans are now saying out loud what politicians won’t: “inventory issues” mean there is “no automatic safe place” if Iran or Hezbollah decide to test the system again with bigger, smarter salvos. Iron Dome can keep swatting Hamas‑style short‑range rockets, but the Iran game is different: long‑range ballistic and cruise missiles, launched in waves, from deeper inside Iran, at all hours, with Tehran already having learned in 2025 how to probe for gaps by using smaller, more frequent barrages that exhaust crews and scare civilians into staying home.
Washington is scrambling to patch the math. The Pentagon just moved to quadruple THAAD output from 96 to 400 interceptors a year, but Arrow‑3 and SM‑3 production remains “painfully slow,” around two dozen per year each. Israel keeps its own Arrow stockpile numbers secret; analysts quietly joke that anyone who “likes to be worried” shouldn’t ask too many questions. The result is a strategic pressure cooker: if another war starts, Israeli and U.S. planners will be under huge pressure to repeat 2025’s early “air supremacy” — destroying launchers and depots on the ground — because they cannot afford a long fight that burns through interceptors faster than factories can replace them.
Publicly, the Israeli military leans on a different message: if missiles get through, the bomb shelters will save you. A spokesperson flatly says the one thing that “will keep them safe for sure” is going underground, not trusting that there are “enough interceptors.” That’s the quiet admission behind the slogans: the high‑tech shield is finite, expensive, and slow to reload; concrete rooms and psychological resilience are the real last line of defense.
For Iran, the lesson from 2025 is just as clear: it doesn’t need to overwhelm Israel’s defenses everywhere to hurt it. A few missiles a day on key cities like Beersheba can freeze economic life, keep people indoors, and force Israel to waste precious interceptors to avoid politically intolerable civilian losses. In the next round, the question won’t just be whose missiles are more accurate — it will be who runs out of arrows first, and how much damage a nervous, depleted defender is willing to absorb to avoid finding out.
#Israel #Iran #missiles #IronDome #Arrow3 #THAAD #war #security
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⚡️ Belgorod in the Dark, Kyiv on IMF Life Support, Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi
Ukraine just reminded Russia that “deep strike” works both ways. Overnight missile salvos hit energy installations in Belgorod, around 40 km from the border, knocking out power, water and heating and leaving about 50,000 people without electricity, in the second heavy strike on the city and surrounding districts in less than a week. Moscow calls the damage to energy infrastructure “serious”; Kyiv, as usual, keeps official silence while Russian regional authorities field the anger of residents who suddenly discovered what blackout looks like when it lands on your own grid.
While Belgorod scrambles to reconnect half its blackout by the end of the day, Ukraine is plugging a different set of holes with foreign cash. The IMF board has approved a new four‑year, roughly $8.1 billion Extended Fund Facility for Kyiv, with about $1.5 billion to be wired immediately to cover budget gaps and “support macro‑financial stability” inside a war economy that runs on artillery, generators and external support. On paper, the program anchors a much larger $136.5 billion international package tied to reforms and debt relief; in practice, it’s another IV line keeping the state alive while domestic tax capacity is bombed, frozen or emigrated.
And as missiles trade places and money flows, the diplomacy track is being pushed into the Gulf. Zelensky says the next round of U.S.‑brokered trilateral talks with Russia will “most likely” happen in Abu Dhabi in early March, after reconstruction discussions with the Americans in Geneva laid the groundwork. The stated goal: finalize what’s been drafted on “real security guarantees” and prepare a leaders‑level meeting — a summit to seal whatever deal Washington can squeeze out of a Russia that still bombs Ukraine’s grid and a Ukraine that now hits back across the border.
So the current balance looks like this: Russia tests how much pain its own regions will tolerate for a forever war, Ukraine tests how far Western money and missiles can go without breaking political support, and the U.S. tests whether peace can be negotiated in air‑conditioned rooms in Geneva and Abu Dhabi while both sides keep turning the lights off over someone else’s city.
#Ukraine #Russia #Belgorod #IMF #Zelensky #AbuDhabi #war #energy #geopolitics
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Ukraine just reminded Russia that “deep strike” works both ways. Overnight missile salvos hit energy installations in Belgorod, around 40 km from the border, knocking out power, water and heating and leaving about 50,000 people without electricity, in the second heavy strike on the city and surrounding districts in less than a week. Moscow calls the damage to energy infrastructure “serious”; Kyiv, as usual, keeps official silence while Russian regional authorities field the anger of residents who suddenly discovered what blackout looks like when it lands on your own grid.
While Belgorod scrambles to reconnect half its blackout by the end of the day, Ukraine is plugging a different set of holes with foreign cash. The IMF board has approved a new four‑year, roughly $8.1 billion Extended Fund Facility for Kyiv, with about $1.5 billion to be wired immediately to cover budget gaps and “support macro‑financial stability” inside a war economy that runs on artillery, generators and external support. On paper, the program anchors a much larger $136.5 billion international package tied to reforms and debt relief; in practice, it’s another IV line keeping the state alive while domestic tax capacity is bombed, frozen or emigrated.
And as missiles trade places and money flows, the diplomacy track is being pushed into the Gulf. Zelensky says the next round of U.S.‑brokered trilateral talks with Russia will “most likely” happen in Abu Dhabi in early March, after reconstruction discussions with the Americans in Geneva laid the groundwork. The stated goal: finalize what’s been drafted on “real security guarantees” and prepare a leaders‑level meeting — a summit to seal whatever deal Washington can squeeze out of a Russia that still bombs Ukraine’s grid and a Ukraine that now hits back across the border.
So the current balance looks like this: Russia tests how much pain its own regions will tolerate for a forever war, Ukraine tests how far Western money and missiles can go without breaking political support, and the U.S. tests whether peace can be negotiated in air‑conditioned rooms in Geneva and Abu Dhabi while both sides keep turning the lights off over someone else’s city.
#Ukraine #Russia #Belgorod #IMF #Zelensky #AbuDhabi #war #energy #geopolitics
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🤖 The Pentagon Wants “All Lawful Uses.” Anthropic Doesn’t Trust That Phrase.
The clash isn’t about one hypothetical missile. It’s about who decides what AI is allowed to do when killing and spying are on the table.
The Pentagon wants Claude available for “all lawful purposes” across targeting, intel, cyber and surveillance, insisting it doesn’t plan mass domestic spying or fully autonomous weapons and that humans will still push the nuclear button. Anthropic says that’s exactly the problem: “lawful” can be stretched in a crisis, today’s models still hallucinate, and once you wire them into weapons and dragnet datasets, they can quietly undermine democratic control while a human stays “in the loop” on paper.
Amodei has drawn two hard lines: no lethal autonomous weapons, no AI‑turbocharged mass surveillance of U.S. citizens. That stance has employee support and branding value, but it directly collides with a Trump Pentagon that’s racing to infuse AI into everything and doesn’t want a contractor deciding when the tools stop. Hence the threat: drop your objections or we consider forcing access to your tech and blacklisting you from future work.
Other giants have already swallowed the “all lawful purposes” formula, which isolates Anthropic as the holdout and makes it an easy political target. Yet Claude is already embedded in defense clouds and workflows, so ripping it out would be painful — and seizing it would send a clear warning to every AI lab that “partnership” with the U.S. security state comes with a standing risk of expropriation if you ever say no.
In the end, the fight is less about whether AI can help track an incoming warhead — it obviously can — and more about the first precedent: will a safety‑driven company force the government to codify real limits, or will the government prove that, when it comes to AI and war, the only alignment that matters is with power?
#AI #Anthropic #Pentagon #Trump #military #surveillance #autonomousWeapons #Claude
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The clash isn’t about one hypothetical missile. It’s about who decides what AI is allowed to do when killing and spying are on the table.
The Pentagon wants Claude available for “all lawful purposes” across targeting, intel, cyber and surveillance, insisting it doesn’t plan mass domestic spying or fully autonomous weapons and that humans will still push the nuclear button. Anthropic says that’s exactly the problem: “lawful” can be stretched in a crisis, today’s models still hallucinate, and once you wire them into weapons and dragnet datasets, they can quietly undermine democratic control while a human stays “in the loop” on paper.
Amodei has drawn two hard lines: no lethal autonomous weapons, no AI‑turbocharged mass surveillance of U.S. citizens. That stance has employee support and branding value, but it directly collides with a Trump Pentagon that’s racing to infuse AI into everything and doesn’t want a contractor deciding when the tools stop. Hence the threat: drop your objections or we consider forcing access to your tech and blacklisting you from future work.
Other giants have already swallowed the “all lawful purposes” formula, which isolates Anthropic as the holdout and makes it an easy political target. Yet Claude is already embedded in defense clouds and workflows, so ripping it out would be painful — and seizing it would send a clear warning to every AI lab that “partnership” with the U.S. security state comes with a standing risk of expropriation if you ever say no.
In the end, the fight is less about whether AI can help track an incoming warhead — it obviously can — and more about the first precedent: will a safety‑driven company force the government to codify real limits, or will the government prove that, when it comes to AI and war, the only alignment that matters is with power?
#AI #Anthropic #Pentagon #Trump #military #surveillance #autonomousWeapons #Claude
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💣 Trump’s Iran Gamble: Regime Change by Airstrike
The U.S. and Israel just opened a full‑scale shooting war with Iran, and Trump isn’t even pretending this is about “limited strikes” anymore — he’s openly selling regime change from the air.
Before dawn Washington time, U.S. and Israeli forces hit at least nine Iranian cities, including Tehran, in a coordinated barrage targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, air defenses and, according to Israel, a gathering of senior officials inside a high‑security compound linked to Ali Khamenei. Satellite images show heavy damage and smoke around the supreme leader’s compound; the status of Iran’s top leadership is unknown.
Iran’s answer came fast: waves of ballistic missiles at Israel and at least four U.S. bases across the Gulf, with debris killing at least one person in the UAE and impacts reported in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Israeli authorities so far report mostly minor injuries, suggesting air defenses held, but the region’s economic artery took a direct hit — shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively shut down, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard calling the waters unsafe and U.S. maritime authorities telling commercial traffic to stay away. One‑fifth of global oil flows through that chokepoint.
Trump, in a video address, promised not just to “eliminate” Iran’s nuclear program, but to “raze their missile industry to the ground,” “annihilate their navy,” and “enable the overthrow of the regime,” telling Iranians this is “probably your only chance for generations” to rise up. This after a January pledge to “help” anti‑government protesters, followed by a bloody crackdown that killed thousands and crushed that movement in the streets. Last June’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites were later revealed to have degraded rather than destroyed the program, even as Trump boasted it had been “obliterated.”
On the ground in Iran, the “surgical strike” rhetoric looks like something else. Residents in Tehran describe chaos, panicked runs for schools and shelters, and huge plumes of smoke over central streets. State media says a girl’s elementary school in Minab was hit, killing dozens of children; those casualty figures aren’t independently confirmed yet, but the message inside Iran is simple: this is not just a war on centrifuges.
Abroad, Canada and Australia are backing Washington; many other governments are urging restraint and warning about a war with no exit ramp. The pattern is familiar: Washington talks about “decisive blows” and “last chances,” Israel pushes to break Iran’s regional reach in one go, and Tehran bets that missiles, proxy fires and a global oil shock will outlast American attention spans.
The formula is simple: bombs now, uprising later. And the bill for that experiment gets sent to Iranians, Israelis, Gulf states, and everyone whose economy depends on ships moving through a strait that just turned into a shooting gallery.
#Iran #Israel #Trump #war #StraitOfHormuz #nuclear #regimeChange
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The U.S. and Israel just opened a full‑scale shooting war with Iran, and Trump isn’t even pretending this is about “limited strikes” anymore — he’s openly selling regime change from the air.
Before dawn Washington time, U.S. and Israeli forces hit at least nine Iranian cities, including Tehran, in a coordinated barrage targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, air defenses and, according to Israel, a gathering of senior officials inside a high‑security compound linked to Ali Khamenei. Satellite images show heavy damage and smoke around the supreme leader’s compound; the status of Iran’s top leadership is unknown.
Iran’s answer came fast: waves of ballistic missiles at Israel and at least four U.S. bases across the Gulf, with debris killing at least one person in the UAE and impacts reported in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Israeli authorities so far report mostly minor injuries, suggesting air defenses held, but the region’s economic artery took a direct hit — shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively shut down, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard calling the waters unsafe and U.S. maritime authorities telling commercial traffic to stay away. One‑fifth of global oil flows through that chokepoint.
Trump, in a video address, promised not just to “eliminate” Iran’s nuclear program, but to “raze their missile industry to the ground,” “annihilate their navy,” and “enable the overthrow of the regime,” telling Iranians this is “probably your only chance for generations” to rise up. This after a January pledge to “help” anti‑government protesters, followed by a bloody crackdown that killed thousands and crushed that movement in the streets. Last June’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites were later revealed to have degraded rather than destroyed the program, even as Trump boasted it had been “obliterated.”
On the ground in Iran, the “surgical strike” rhetoric looks like something else. Residents in Tehran describe chaos, panicked runs for schools and shelters, and huge plumes of smoke over central streets. State media says a girl’s elementary school in Minab was hit, killing dozens of children; those casualty figures aren’t independently confirmed yet, but the message inside Iran is simple: this is not just a war on centrifuges.
Abroad, Canada and Australia are backing Washington; many other governments are urging restraint and warning about a war with no exit ramp. The pattern is familiar: Washington talks about “decisive blows” and “last chances,” Israel pushes to break Iran’s regional reach in one go, and Tehran bets that missiles, proxy fires and a global oil shock will outlast American attention spans.
The formula is simple: bombs now, uprising later. And the bill for that experiment gets sent to Iranians, Israelis, Gulf states, and everyone whose economy depends on ships moving through a strait that just turned into a shooting gallery.
#Iran #Israel #Trump #war #StraitOfHormuz #nuclear #regimeChange
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💣 Trump’s War Math: Pentagon Hits Missiles, Israel Hits the Regime
The U.S.–Israel attack on Iran now has a declared political goal: regime change. The Pentagon says its forces have struck Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and IRGC command-and-control hubs, while Israeli jets go after what officials describe as “regime sites” — including top commanders at Iran’s main intelligence agency, a move that reportedly triggered panic inside the security apparatus.
Trump has proclaimed the start of “major combat operations” and told The Washington Post his objective is “freedom for the people” of Iran, framing a multi‑theater air campaign as a liberation project. Netanyahu says the joint operation will last “as long as needed,” with people familiar with the planning describing a division of labor: U.S. strikes focused on military capability, Israeli strikes focused on the political and intelligence nervous system of the state.
Tehran’s response has already gone regional. Iran has launched missiles at Israel and at least seven Arab states; the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait confirm hits, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan and Qatar say they intercepted incoming fire. Israel so far reports only light injuries, but a luxury hotel in Dubai was hit — a reminder that this isn’t a neatly contained “surgical” conflict but a live test of how much escalation global markets, Gulf monarchies and Israel’s own public are willing to absorb for Trump’s latest promise of “freedom” from 30,000 feet.
#Iran #Israel #Trump #Netanyahu #missiles #regimeChange #USpolitics
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The U.S.–Israel attack on Iran now has a declared political goal: regime change. The Pentagon says its forces have struck Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and IRGC command-and-control hubs, while Israeli jets go after what officials describe as “regime sites” — including top commanders at Iran’s main intelligence agency, a move that reportedly triggered panic inside the security apparatus.
Trump has proclaimed the start of “major combat operations” and told The Washington Post his objective is “freedom for the people” of Iran, framing a multi‑theater air campaign as a liberation project. Netanyahu says the joint operation will last “as long as needed,” with people familiar with the planning describing a division of labor: U.S. strikes focused on military capability, Israeli strikes focused on the political and intelligence nervous system of the state.
Tehran’s response has already gone regional. Iran has launched missiles at Israel and at least seven Arab states; the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait confirm hits, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan and Qatar say they intercepted incoming fire. Israel so far reports only light injuries, but a luxury hotel in Dubai was hit — a reminder that this isn’t a neatly contained “surgical” conflict but a live test of how much escalation global markets, Gulf monarchies and Israel’s own public are willing to absorb for Trump’s latest promise of “freedom” from 30,000 feet.
#Iran #Israel #Trump #Netanyahu #missiles #regimeChange #USpolitics
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☢️ Khamenei Is Dead. Trump and Netanyahu Just Opened the Succession War.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the man who ran the Islamic Republic since 1989 — is now officially a casualty of the U.S.–Israel air campaign. A senior Israeli official says Khamenei’s body has been found and his death confirmed after strikes that smashed targets in Tehran and across at least nine Iranian cities.
For nearly four decades, Khamenei sat on top of every lever of power in Iran: government, military, judiciary, Revolutionary Guard, and a regional militia network built to outlast the U.S., Israel and the Sunni monarchies across the Gulf. Under him, Iran built a nuclear program that terrified its neighbors, armed proxies from Lebanon to Yemen, and crushed uprisings at home, including the January protests this year that were put down at the cost of thousands of lives.
But by the time the bombs fell this weekend, he was ruling from a bunker. Last June, joint Israeli‑U.S. strikes killed several of his closest lieutenants and senior Guard commanders and wrecked key nuclear and missile sites, forcing him into hiding and hollowing out his inner circle. Saturday’s operation finished the job physically — just as Iran was already weakened by sanctions, mass unrest, and the fallout from Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack, which dragged Tehran into a grinding, losing confrontation by proxy.
Trump is selling Khamenei’s death as an opportunity for “freedom” and a once‑in‑a‑generation chance for Iranians to topple their rulers; Netanyahu is promising to keep striking “as long as needed.” Iran has already answered with missile volleys at Israel and at least seven Arab states, and panic is spreading as people flee Iranian cities and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz seizes up.
The regime Khamenei built was designed to survive his death: a system of clerics, councils, Guards and patronage networks meant to plug in a new supreme leader the moment the old one disappears. Killing the man doesn’t kill the machine. It just guarantees that the struggle over who controls it will now play out under air raids, regional missile fire, and a U.S. president openly promising to help pick the ending.
#Iran #Khamenei #Trump #Israel #war #regimeChange #StraitOfHormuz
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Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the man who ran the Islamic Republic since 1989 — is now officially a casualty of the U.S.–Israel air campaign. A senior Israeli official says Khamenei’s body has been found and his death confirmed after strikes that smashed targets in Tehran and across at least nine Iranian cities.
For nearly four decades, Khamenei sat on top of every lever of power in Iran: government, military, judiciary, Revolutionary Guard, and a regional militia network built to outlast the U.S., Israel and the Sunni monarchies across the Gulf. Under him, Iran built a nuclear program that terrified its neighbors, armed proxies from Lebanon to Yemen, and crushed uprisings at home, including the January protests this year that were put down at the cost of thousands of lives.
But by the time the bombs fell this weekend, he was ruling from a bunker. Last June, joint Israeli‑U.S. strikes killed several of his closest lieutenants and senior Guard commanders and wrecked key nuclear and missile sites, forcing him into hiding and hollowing out his inner circle. Saturday’s operation finished the job physically — just as Iran was already weakened by sanctions, mass unrest, and the fallout from Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack, which dragged Tehran into a grinding, losing confrontation by proxy.
Trump is selling Khamenei’s death as an opportunity for “freedom” and a once‑in‑a‑generation chance for Iranians to topple their rulers; Netanyahu is promising to keep striking “as long as needed.” Iran has already answered with missile volleys at Israel and at least seven Arab states, and panic is spreading as people flee Iranian cities and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz seizes up.
The regime Khamenei built was designed to survive his death: a system of clerics, councils, Guards and patronage networks meant to plug in a new supreme leader the moment the old one disappears. Killing the man doesn’t kill the machine. It just guarantees that the struggle over who controls it will now play out under air raids, regional missile fire, and a U.S. president openly promising to help pick the ending.
#Iran #Khamenei #Trump #Israel #war #regimeChange #StraitOfHormuz
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🕳 “Drop the Big Bomb”: Musk, Epstein, and the Fake Moral High Ground
When Musk was beefing with Trump last year, he went straight for maximum drama:
Then he deleted the posts, made up with Trump, and rebranded himself as a crusader for Epstein’s victims — demanding arrests, prosecutions and even “revolution.”
Then the Justice Department actually released the files. And there he was. Not as a random name in a log, but in repeated emails with Epstein: asking what night would be “the wildest party on your island,” trying to set up a visit with Talulah Riley, begging for somewhere to “hit the party scene … and let loose,” arranging a SpaceX visit for Epstein plus three female “assistants” whose passports were vetted, and writing,
— all years after Epstein’s 2008 conviction.
Public Musk now insists he “REFUSED” to visit, “ghosted” Epstein, and had “very little correspondence,” worrying only that his emails could be “misinterpreted.” The correspondence shows something closer to a guy working hard to get invited to the one party he now claims he heroically skipped, then retrofitting the story into a tale of moral clarity.
Kimbal Musk surfaces in the files too: answering a warning not to mistreat a woman with “Message received wide and clear ;)” on a thread that includes Epstein, and later being described by Epstein as someone he “gave another girl to,” who was “thrilled.” Kimbal now says she was 30, they met through a friend, Epstein didn’t introduce them, and his only encounter with Epstein was one daytime office meeting. Soon after the new tranche of documents dropped, Burning Man quietly announced he was off its board, officially because of “other commitments.”
Musk’s solution has been to try to stand at the front of the pitchfork crowd and pretend he’s leading it. He boosts a human‑rights activist’s shock at the files; the activist publicly corrects him: this is a revolution against everyone in the files, not a platform for one of them. Victim advocates point out that if Musk is suddenly serious about sexual abuse, he could start by stopping his own Grok chatbot from pumping out non‑consensual sexualized images of real people.
The pattern is textbook Musk: weaponize “the files” against enemies on X, fall silent when they touch his allies and his own administration, and recast his year‑long effort to get in on “the wildest party” as the origin story of a man bravely demanding justice for the people who were actually there as victims.
#Musk #EpsteinFiles #Grok #X #techoligarchy #accountability
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When Musk was beefing with Trump last year, he went straight for maximum drama:
“Time to drop the really big bomb … @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein Files.”
Then he deleted the posts, made up with Trump, and rebranded himself as a crusader for Epstein’s victims — demanding arrests, prosecutions and even “revolution.”
Then the Justice Department actually released the files. And there he was. Not as a random name in a log, but in repeated emails with Epstein: asking what night would be “the wildest party on your island,” trying to set up a visit with Talulah Riley, begging for somewhere to “hit the party scene … and let loose,” arranging a SpaceX visit for Epstein plus three female “assistants” whose passports were vetted, and writing,
“When should we head to your island on the 2nd?”
— all years after Epstein’s 2008 conviction.
Public Musk now insists he “REFUSED” to visit, “ghosted” Epstein, and had “very little correspondence,” worrying only that his emails could be “misinterpreted.” The correspondence shows something closer to a guy working hard to get invited to the one party he now claims he heroically skipped, then retrofitting the story into a tale of moral clarity.
Kimbal Musk surfaces in the files too: answering a warning not to mistreat a woman with “Message received wide and clear ;)” on a thread that includes Epstein, and later being described by Epstein as someone he “gave another girl to,” who was “thrilled.” Kimbal now says she was 30, they met through a friend, Epstein didn’t introduce them, and his only encounter with Epstein was one daytime office meeting. Soon after the new tranche of documents dropped, Burning Man quietly announced he was off its board, officially because of “other commitments.”
Musk’s solution has been to try to stand at the front of the pitchfork crowd and pretend he’s leading it. He boosts a human‑rights activist’s shock at the files; the activist publicly corrects him: this is a revolution against everyone in the files, not a platform for one of them. Victim advocates point out that if Musk is suddenly serious about sexual abuse, he could start by stopping his own Grok chatbot from pumping out non‑consensual sexualized images of real people.
The pattern is textbook Musk: weaponize “the files” against enemies on X, fall silent when they touch his allies and his own administration, and recast his year‑long effort to get in on “the wildest party” as the origin story of a man bravely demanding justice for the people who were actually there as victims.
#Musk #EpsteinFiles #Grok #X #techoligarchy #accountability
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Ali Khamenei, Man Down
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, has died aged 86 in a large-scale air attack on the country by the US and Israel.
He presided over a complex theocratic system that was enforced brutally at home, and sought to influence the exercise of power in other Middle Eastern countries.
Though the US and Israel attempted to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme with a bombing campaign in June 2025, it was not fully successful.
The economy continued to deteriorate, and the following January the country’s people took to the streets against the Islamic Republic. An estimated 30,000 or more protesters were killed – the largest death toll in modern Iranian history.
Trump considered discussions with Khamenei’s diplomats about the nuclear issue and missile production to be unproductive. In announcing the new attack, he called on Iranians to do what they could to take over the government once it was over.
Khamenei had come to ultimate power in 1989, by which point he was already the country’s president.
Iran’s 88-strong assembly of experts – senior Shia clerics – chose him to succeed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, overthrower of the Shah in 1979 and founder of the Islamic Republic, as supreme leader of Iran.
Thereafter Khamenei had absolute power and the final say in Iran’s future, whether in regard to its controversial nuclear programme or detente with the west. He was not only commander-in-chief of the Iranian armed forces, which includes the regular artesh (army) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but also headed the “axis of resistance” – an anti-western and anti-Israel alliance made up of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Shia militias in Iraq, the Houthi rebels eventually occupying western Yemen, and the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria.
Thus his rule had a direct impact on much of the region, and under his leadership the Islamic Republic of Iran became one of the world’s biggest state sponsors of terrorism.
It remained a significant force even despite Hamas’s loss of strength as a result of Israel’s reprisals in response to the attack on 7 October 2023, Hezbollah’s setbacks after attacks by Israel in Lebanon, and the fall of Assad in 2024.
#khamenei #death #hezbollah #iran #attack #israel #trump
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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, has died aged 86 in a large-scale air attack on the country by the US and Israel.
He presided over a complex theocratic system that was enforced brutally at home, and sought to influence the exercise of power in other Middle Eastern countries.
Though the US and Israel attempted to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme with a bombing campaign in June 2025, it was not fully successful.
The economy continued to deteriorate, and the following January the country’s people took to the streets against the Islamic Republic. An estimated 30,000 or more protesters were killed – the largest death toll in modern Iranian history.
Trump considered discussions with Khamenei’s diplomats about the nuclear issue and missile production to be unproductive. In announcing the new attack, he called on Iranians to do what they could to take over the government once it was over.
Khamenei had come to ultimate power in 1989, by which point he was already the country’s president.
Iran’s 88-strong assembly of experts – senior Shia clerics – chose him to succeed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, overthrower of the Shah in 1979 and founder of the Islamic Republic, as supreme leader of Iran.
Thereafter Khamenei had absolute power and the final say in Iran’s future, whether in regard to its controversial nuclear programme or detente with the west. He was not only commander-in-chief of the Iranian armed forces, which includes the regular artesh (army) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but also headed the “axis of resistance” – an anti-western and anti-Israel alliance made up of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Shia militias in Iraq, the Houthi rebels eventually occupying western Yemen, and the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria.
Thus his rule had a direct impact on much of the region, and under his leadership the Islamic Republic of Iran became one of the world’s biggest state sponsors of terrorism.
It remained a significant force even despite Hamas’s loss of strength as a result of Israel’s reprisals in response to the attack on 7 October 2023, Hezbollah’s setbacks after attacks by Israel in Lebanon, and the fall of Assad in 2024.
#khamenei #death #hezbollah #iran #attack #israel #trump
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Nonetheless, much of Khamenei’s role would consist of protecting himself and his office from the dissatisfactions of the Iranian people and mis-steps of successive elected Iranian presidents.
Mohammad Khatami (president from 1997 until 2005) led a reformist movement that resulted in a brief thawing of ties with the US, only to be overshadowed by student uprisings in 1999 that were crushed by security forces.
It was under Ahmadinejad that the IRGC increased its power and relevance in the Iranian economy.
The IRGC, whose main role is to protect the Islamic Republic from internal and external threats, had been barred from politics by Khomeini, but Khamenei encouraged it to play a leading role, including in the Iranian economy and through its foreign arm, the Quds Force, in addition to serving as a security organisation that became integral to the exercise of repression.
That year he also announced the second chapter of the Islamic revolution, called the “Second Step” initiative, which envisioned an Islamic Republic led by a pious and relatively young cohort carrying out his legacy.
In February 2020, Iran’s Guardian council – a 12-member vetting body for which the supreme leader handpicks six members and which can veto candidates for election – followed this by disqualifying moderate candidates, and thus giving hardliners a majority in parliament.
Pezeshkian was seen as a safe bet who would not challenge the nezam (ruling system). Many Iranians boycotted the polls, but Pezeshkian still won the presidency, and arguably this gave Khamenei some room to change course.
Khamenei had always viewed the west as being bent on regime change in Iran, either through a velvet revolution, economic pressure via sanctions, or military intervention. Every decision that he made was in this context.
In 2014, Khamenei had undergone surgery for his prostate. For well over a decade, he was widely thought to have prostate cancer. There were repeated rumours of his demise, notably in September 2022, after he cancelled a series of public appearances.
Later that month, the death of Mahsa Jina Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman, in police custody for allegedly violating hijab rules, gave rise to mass anti-regime protests in all 31 of Iran’s provinces that were at the time the biggest threat to Khamenei’s rule in more than three decades. The situation drew international condemnation – also caused in part by Tehran arming Russia in its war in Ukraine.
What became known as the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising appeared to briefly quieten down after the execution of four protesters, the deaths of more than 500 people, and stories of rape and torture trickling out of prisons holding the more than 60,000 people arrested during the unrest.
In 2023 Khamenei granted limited amnesty allegedly to “tens of thousands” of prisoners – a move that human rights organisations suggested was a public relations stunt to clear him of accusations of gross human rights violations.
The following year, a UN fact-finding mission found that crimes against humanity had been committed during the uprising.
#khamenei #death #hezbollah #iran #attack #israel #trump
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Khamenei amassed control of bonyads (charitable foundations) worth tens of billions of US dollars, and under his rule Iran was marred by systemic corruption, mismanagement and rising repression. At home there was deeply felt anger and resentment towards him and the clerical establishment.
Hiis position was strengthened by re-establishing ties with Saudi Arabia, and other Arab neighbours in the Persian Gulf, and joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Brics intergovernmental groups.
He gained support from China through a 25-year cooperation deal and from Russia through a defence and cooperation treaty that armed Moscow with drones and reportedly ballistic missiles to use in its Ukraine war.
Still, Israel’s normalisation with some Arab states through the Abraham accords appeared threatening to the resistance axis, and it is no surprise that Khamenei backed the 7 October attack on Israel.
Iran’s tit-for-tat strikes with Israel and the assassinations of Hamas leadership in Tehran and the Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah prompted speculation that Khamenei would be next.
From 1958 to 1964, Khamenei did his religious studies at the Hojjatie school at the seminary in Qom, the centre of Islam in Iran, where he came under the tutelage of Khomeini and in 1962 joined the clerical movement against the shah.
Khamenei’s worldview was shaped by the events of his youth, including the MI6-backed CIA coup d’etat against the prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953.
His pro-Palestine leanings were largely prompted by Khamenei’s readings of the Muslim Brotherhood member Sayyid Qutb, which he had translated to Persian.
The notion of gharbzadegi (“westoxification”), espoused by Jalal Al-e-Ahmad, shaped his ideas of the west and its imperialist hold over Iran. Naturally, Khamenei and those likeminded clerics at the time saw Islam as a “cultural and ideological weapon” against it.
In 1981, Khamenei survived an assassination attempt that paralysed his right hand. He said: “I won’t need the hand. It would suffice if my brain and tongue work.”
He served as president of the Islamic Republic for two terms (1981-89). In 1987 he made his only trip to the US, to address the UN general assembly.
Months before Khomeini’s death from a heart attack in 1989, Khamenei reportedly said: “I’m not qualified to be supreme leader. It’s not the proper place for me.”
When Khomeini died, the former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani pushed the uncharismatic, underqualified and reluctant Khamenei – not at that point having achieved the senior clerical rank of ayatollah – forward.
#khamenei #death #hezbollah #iran #attack #israel #trump
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🇺🇸 Trump’s Iran War, Congress’s Theater: Briefings, War Powers, and DHS as Hostage
Congress is sprinting to look “in the loop” on a war it didn’t authorize and so far can’t stop. Staff briefings are being hurriedly arranged for key House and Senate committees this weekend, with all‑member classified sessions likely next week — after Trump has already launched major strikes on Iran, killed the supreme leader, and promised “major combat operations” with no clear endgame.
Democratic leaders are demanding more than PowerPoints. Chuck Schumer wants open hearings and public testimony, warning that the administration hasn’t given “critical details about the scope and immediacy of the threat,” while Hakeem Jeffries didn’t even get the pre‑strike Gang of Eight call that Rubio placed to Republican leaders. House and Senate Democrats are lining up behind war‑powers resolutions to force votes next week on curbing Trump’s freedom to escalate without Hill sign‑off, even as Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thune refuse to recall Congress early.
The reactions split almost perfectly along the now‑familiar fracture lines. On the right, leadership Republicans and longtime Iran hawks like Lindsey Graham and Rick Crawford hail the joint U.S.–Israel operation as “necessary,” “long justified,” and proof of “peace through strength,” with Graham declaring “the end of the largest state sponsor of terrorism is upon us.” On the left and center, figures like Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner and Jim Himes call it “a war of choice with no strategic endgame” that risks dragging the U.S. into yet another open‑ended Middle East conflict, insisting America can back Iran’s democracy movement “without sending our troops to die.”
And because Washington never wastes a war, Republicans are already folding the Iran strikes into an unrelated fight over a partially shut‑down Department of Homeland Security, arguing that the new conflict proves Democrats must swallow their demands and fully fund DHS “at maximum readiness.” The pattern is as old as the War Powers Act: the president moves first, Congress scrambles for a briefing, leadership games out how to weaponize the crisis for domestic leverage — and only then do lawmakers remember they were supposed to be the ones deciding whether there would be a war in the first place.
#Iran #Trump #Congress #WarPowers #Netanyahu #LindseyGraham #Schumer #Gallego
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Congress is sprinting to look “in the loop” on a war it didn’t authorize and so far can’t stop. Staff briefings are being hurriedly arranged for key House and Senate committees this weekend, with all‑member classified sessions likely next week — after Trump has already launched major strikes on Iran, killed the supreme leader, and promised “major combat operations” with no clear endgame.
Democratic leaders are demanding more than PowerPoints. Chuck Schumer wants open hearings and public testimony, warning that the administration hasn’t given “critical details about the scope and immediacy of the threat,” while Hakeem Jeffries didn’t even get the pre‑strike Gang of Eight call that Rubio placed to Republican leaders. House and Senate Democrats are lining up behind war‑powers resolutions to force votes next week on curbing Trump’s freedom to escalate without Hill sign‑off, even as Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thune refuse to recall Congress early.
The reactions split almost perfectly along the now‑familiar fracture lines. On the right, leadership Republicans and longtime Iran hawks like Lindsey Graham and Rick Crawford hail the joint U.S.–Israel operation as “necessary,” “long justified,” and proof of “peace through strength,” with Graham declaring “the end of the largest state sponsor of terrorism is upon us.” On the left and center, figures like Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner and Jim Himes call it “a war of choice with no strategic endgame” that risks dragging the U.S. into yet another open‑ended Middle East conflict, insisting America can back Iran’s democracy movement “without sending our troops to die.”
And because Washington never wastes a war, Republicans are already folding the Iran strikes into an unrelated fight over a partially shut‑down Department of Homeland Security, arguing that the new conflict proves Democrats must swallow their demands and fully fund DHS “at maximum readiness.” The pattern is as old as the War Powers Act: the president moves first, Congress scrambles for a briefing, leadership games out how to weaponize the crisis for domestic leverage — and only then do lawmakers remember they were supposed to be the ones deciding whether there would be a war in the first place.
#Iran #Trump #Congress #WarPowers #Netanyahu #LindseyGraham #Schumer #Gallego
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Strikes Across the Middle East
Strikes across the Middle East continued Sunday, with Israel saying it launched a fresh wave in “the heart of Tehran” and Iran mounting attacks in Israel and across the Persian Gulf as the regime pledged to avenge the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
One of those strikes killed eight people near Jerusalem, according to Israel’s national emergency service, and injured at least 28.
Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and a vocal opponent of Israel and the West since coming to power in 1989, was killed in U.S.-Israeli attacks Saturday along with other top Iranian leaders.
Social media showed scenes of both grief and celebration in Iran, where the government declared 40 days of mourning and announced a temporary leadership structure.
Israeli defense officials said Sunday that their initial strikes on Iranian leaders, launched in two locations, eliminated 40 military commanders, and that they would continue to dismantle Iranian military infrastructure.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks included for the first time a strike against Oman, which had served as a mediator in nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran.
#strikes #across #middle #east #tehran #washington
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Strikes across the Middle East continued Sunday, with Israel saying it launched a fresh wave in “the heart of Tehran” and Iran mounting attacks in Israel and across the Persian Gulf as the regime pledged to avenge the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
One of those strikes killed eight people near Jerusalem, according to Israel’s national emergency service, and injured at least 28.
Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and a vocal opponent of Israel and the West since coming to power in 1989, was killed in U.S.-Israeli attacks Saturday along with other top Iranian leaders.
Social media showed scenes of both grief and celebration in Iran, where the government declared 40 days of mourning and announced a temporary leadership structure.
Israeli defense officials said Sunday that their initial strikes on Iranian leaders, launched in two locations, eliminated 40 military commanders, and that they would continue to dismantle Iranian military infrastructure.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks included for the first time a strike against Oman, which had served as a mediator in nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran.
#strikes #across #middle #east #tehran #washington
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⛽️ Strait of Hormuz: Global Oil on Pause, War Risk on Play
The shooting war over Iran just turned into an economic chokehold. After U.S. and Israeli strikes, oil and gas tankers are slowing, stopping, or turning around at the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian media declares the waterway “practically closed” and the Revolutionary Guard warns that transit is unsafe.
Tankers report hearing radio messages claiming to be from the Iranian navy banning passage; some ships have U‑turned or aborted transits, and Japan’s Nippon Yusen has told its fleet to avoid Hormuz altogether, while Greece has told its vast merchant fleet to reassess and be ready to operate without reliable GPS because of jamming and spoofing risks. Vessel‑tracking data shows a growing flotilla of idle crude and LNG carriers piling up on both sides of the strait and in the Gulf of Oman, including ships loaded with Saudi, Iraqi, Emirati and Qatari cargoes now essentially parked until someone decides it’s safe to move again.
Formally, neither Washington nor Tehran has announced a closure, but in shipping terms the effect is already there: U.S. maritime authorities are warning vessels to stay well clear of U.S. military assets, insurers are reassessing, and owners are eyeing war‑risk clauses that let them cancel voyages into a live conflict zone. A fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas normally pass through Hormuz; even a brief disruption means higher freight rates and a war premium baked into every barrel.
Futures markets are shut for the weekend, but early price signals are already pointing to double‑digit percentage jumps for West Texas Intermediate when trading reopens, and traders say the real question is political, not technical: does Iran keep using Hormuz as a pressure lever, do the U.S. and Gulf states risk escorting traffic through a missile environment, and how long shipowners will tolerate leaving millions of barrels’ worth of crude sitting in the Gulf of Oman while presidents in Washington and Tehran trade threats.
The battlefield is missiles and airbases; the collateral is every consumer whose life depends on oil that used to slip quietly through a strait that has just become the world’s most expensive traffic jam.
#Iran #StraitOfHormuz #oil #tankers #shipping #Trump #war #energy
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The shooting war over Iran just turned into an economic chokehold. After U.S. and Israeli strikes, oil and gas tankers are slowing, stopping, or turning around at the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian media declares the waterway “practically closed” and the Revolutionary Guard warns that transit is unsafe.
Tankers report hearing radio messages claiming to be from the Iranian navy banning passage; some ships have U‑turned or aborted transits, and Japan’s Nippon Yusen has told its fleet to avoid Hormuz altogether, while Greece has told its vast merchant fleet to reassess and be ready to operate without reliable GPS because of jamming and spoofing risks. Vessel‑tracking data shows a growing flotilla of idle crude and LNG carriers piling up on both sides of the strait and in the Gulf of Oman, including ships loaded with Saudi, Iraqi, Emirati and Qatari cargoes now essentially parked until someone decides it’s safe to move again.
Formally, neither Washington nor Tehran has announced a closure, but in shipping terms the effect is already there: U.S. maritime authorities are warning vessels to stay well clear of U.S. military assets, insurers are reassessing, and owners are eyeing war‑risk clauses that let them cancel voyages into a live conflict zone. A fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas normally pass through Hormuz; even a brief disruption means higher freight rates and a war premium baked into every barrel.
Futures markets are shut for the weekend, but early price signals are already pointing to double‑digit percentage jumps for West Texas Intermediate when trading reopens, and traders say the real question is political, not technical: does Iran keep using Hormuz as a pressure lever, do the U.S. and Gulf states risk escorting traffic through a missile environment, and how long shipowners will tolerate leaving millions of barrels’ worth of crude sitting in the Gulf of Oman while presidents in Washington and Tehran trade threats.
The battlefield is missiles and airbases; the collateral is every consumer whose life depends on oil that used to slip quietly through a strait that has just become the world’s most expensive traffic jam.
#Iran #StraitOfHormuz #oil #tankers #shipping #Trump #war #energy
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🔥 Erbil: America’s Last Base, First Fire
Saraya Awliya al‑Dam didn’t just launch drones at Erbil — it launched a press release for Tehran’s new proxy season. Under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” the group says its swarm attack on US positions at Erbil International Airport was a religious duty and a tribute to the “martyr” Ali Khamenei. The message is clear: Iran may be under bombardment, but its franchises are open for business.
They’re not alone. The Islamic Resistance claims 16 drone attacks on “enemy bases in Iraq and the region” since the US–Israel strikes began, and the usual roster is now officially in: Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada, Harakat Hezbollah al‑Nujaba. The mission statement from Kataib Hezbollah could have been written in a Pentagon red‑team memo: drag America into a long, bleeding war of attrition and make sure no US presence survives in the neighborhood.
Erbil is the perfect stage for this farce. After coalition forces packed up in Baghdad and Ain al‑Assad, the airport base became Washington’s last foothold in Iraq. Several NATO partners quietly pulled their people out days before the Iran operation — not out of pacifism, but because they can count. One US flag left on Iraqi soil, bolted onto a civilian airport, surrounded by towers and malls. For every militia social media channel, that’s not a base. That’s a target-rich press shot.
CNN’s geolocation did the rest: residential high‑rises in the foreground, a curtain of black smoke from the air base behind. Three US service members dead so far across the theater, at least five badly wounded. On paper, this is still “force protection,” “deterrence,” “limited escalation.” On screen, it’s exactly what it looks like: a city with a military installation fused into its airport, and both are on fire.
Everyone gets what they need. The militias get their heroic footage and a promotion from “outlaw groups” to “frontline of the Resistance.” Washington gets one more argument for why it simply has to stay in Erbil forever to “keep ISIS down” and “watch Iran.” Tehran gets to show its supporters that the death of the Supreme Leader doesn’t mean the empire stopped breathing.
And the people who actually live under those towers get a new reality: international airport by day, launchpad and impact zone by night.
#Iraq #Erbil #USA #Iran #Israel
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Saraya Awliya al‑Dam didn’t just launch drones at Erbil — it launched a press release for Tehran’s new proxy season. Under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” the group says its swarm attack on US positions at Erbil International Airport was a religious duty and a tribute to the “martyr” Ali Khamenei. The message is clear: Iran may be under bombardment, but its franchises are open for business.
They’re not alone. The Islamic Resistance claims 16 drone attacks on “enemy bases in Iraq and the region” since the US–Israel strikes began, and the usual roster is now officially in: Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada, Harakat Hezbollah al‑Nujaba. The mission statement from Kataib Hezbollah could have been written in a Pentagon red‑team memo: drag America into a long, bleeding war of attrition and make sure no US presence survives in the neighborhood.
Erbil is the perfect stage for this farce. After coalition forces packed up in Baghdad and Ain al‑Assad, the airport base became Washington’s last foothold in Iraq. Several NATO partners quietly pulled their people out days before the Iran operation — not out of pacifism, but because they can count. One US flag left on Iraqi soil, bolted onto a civilian airport, surrounded by towers and malls. For every militia social media channel, that’s not a base. That’s a target-rich press shot.
CNN’s geolocation did the rest: residential high‑rises in the foreground, a curtain of black smoke from the air base behind. Three US service members dead so far across the theater, at least five badly wounded. On paper, this is still “force protection,” “deterrence,” “limited escalation.” On screen, it’s exactly what it looks like: a city with a military installation fused into its airport, and both are on fire.
Everyone gets what they need. The militias get their heroic footage and a promotion from “outlaw groups” to “frontline of the Resistance.” Washington gets one more argument for why it simply has to stay in Erbil forever to “keep ISIS down” and “watch Iran.” Tehran gets to show its supporters that the death of the Supreme Leader doesn’t mean the empire stopped breathing.
And the people who actually live under those towers get a new reality: international airport by day, launchpad and impact zone by night.
#Iraq #Erbil #USA #Iran #Israel
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Ali Larijani, a woulnd-be new ruler of Iran, says in his post that all will remain intact after the death of Khamenei...
#larijani #ruler #iran
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#larijani #ruler #iran
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Mass demonstrations in support of the authorities and resistance to aggression have begun in Iranian cities.
Judging by the video from Mashhad, the expectation that strikes on Iran would cause anti—government protests was not justified.
#mass #demonstrations #support #iran
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Judging by the video from Mashhad, the expectation that strikes on Iran would cause anti—government protests was not justified.
#mass #demonstrations #support #iran
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🔥 “They Want to Talk”: Trump Sells Diplomacy Over a Pile of Rubble
On day two of the Iran war, the script is pure Trump: bombs first, bodies counted, then a magazine interview about how everyone secretly wants to talk to him.
The U.S.–Israel air campaign has turned into a sustained campaign across land, sea and air. Israel says it’s hitting “the heart of Tehran” again — air defenses, command centers, government HQs, missile launchers — while CENTCOM boasts that the Revolutionary Guard’s headquarters is gone and an Iranian warship is literally sinking at its pier in Chah Bahar.
Iran is firing back with missile barrages on Israel and multiple Gulf states; nine people have been killed in Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem, at least four more across the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, and five‑star towers in Dubai are burning on Instagram as projectiles streak past the skyline and hotel façades blow out.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut; one tanker, the Skylight, is seen ablaze off Oman after Iran claimed it targeted American and British ships.
The civilian ledger is already ugly. An Iranian rights group says at least 133 civilians are dead and 200 wounded; Iranian state media reports that a girls’ elementary school near a naval base — Shajarah Tayyebeh — has become one of the war’s worst single massacres, with the death toll rising to around 115.
This is the backdrop for Trump’s latest reinvention: in an interview with The Atlantic he says Iran’s “new leadership” wants to talk, that “they want to talk, and I have agreed to talk,” and that they “should have done it sooner.” The White House pushes the same line to reporters — that “new potential leadership” is open to negotiations and Trump is “willing” — while insisting the bombing will continue.
Inside Iran, Ali Larijani announces that a three‑member transitional body — the president, the judiciary chief and a Guardian Council jurist — will run the state until a new supreme leader is chosen, after Khamenei was killed in his office along with several other senior figures.
Outside Iran, three US service members are now confirmed killed, five more are seriously wounded, and others with shrapnel injuries and concussions are being cycled back to the line. An Army base in Kuwait is among the sites hit by Iranian retaliation.
Put together, the picture is simple enough. Iran is formally leaderless but still firing missiles, drones and press statements at Israel, the Gulf and US bases. Israel is pounding the capital of an 86‑million‑person country while its own citizens hide in bomb shelters. Global oil and shipping routes are seizing up. A girls’ school has been turned into an ash pile.
And over all of it, Trump repeats his favorite line: that the people under the bombs “want to talk,” that he alone can make the deal, and that any conversation will happen on his schedule, after the air war has gone as far as he thinks it needs to.
In 24 hours, the war has found its core logic: diplomacy as a camera‑friendly halo for escalation, “freedom” as branding for a campaign already killing children, and “willing to talk” as the line you use while you find out how much is left to destroy.
#Iran #Trump #Israel #Khamenei #war #diplomacy #StraitOfHormuz
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸
On day two of the Iran war, the script is pure Trump: bombs first, bodies counted, then a magazine interview about how everyone secretly wants to talk to him.
The U.S.–Israel air campaign has turned into a sustained campaign across land, sea and air. Israel says it’s hitting “the heart of Tehran” again — air defenses, command centers, government HQs, missile launchers — while CENTCOM boasts that the Revolutionary Guard’s headquarters is gone and an Iranian warship is literally sinking at its pier in Chah Bahar.
Iran is firing back with missile barrages on Israel and multiple Gulf states; nine people have been killed in Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem, at least four more across the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, and five‑star towers in Dubai are burning on Instagram as projectiles streak past the skyline and hotel façades blow out.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut; one tanker, the Skylight, is seen ablaze off Oman after Iran claimed it targeted American and British ships.
The civilian ledger is already ugly. An Iranian rights group says at least 133 civilians are dead and 200 wounded; Iranian state media reports that a girls’ elementary school near a naval base — Shajarah Tayyebeh — has become one of the war’s worst single massacres, with the death toll rising to around 115.
This is the backdrop for Trump’s latest reinvention: in an interview with The Atlantic he says Iran’s “new leadership” wants to talk, that “they want to talk, and I have agreed to talk,” and that they “should have done it sooner.” The White House pushes the same line to reporters — that “new potential leadership” is open to negotiations and Trump is “willing” — while insisting the bombing will continue.
Inside Iran, Ali Larijani announces that a three‑member transitional body — the president, the judiciary chief and a Guardian Council jurist — will run the state until a new supreme leader is chosen, after Khamenei was killed in his office along with several other senior figures.
Outside Iran, three US service members are now confirmed killed, five more are seriously wounded, and others with shrapnel injuries and concussions are being cycled back to the line. An Army base in Kuwait is among the sites hit by Iranian retaliation.
Put together, the picture is simple enough. Iran is formally leaderless but still firing missiles, drones and press statements at Israel, the Gulf and US bases. Israel is pounding the capital of an 86‑million‑person country while its own citizens hide in bomb shelters. Global oil and shipping routes are seizing up. A girls’ school has been turned into an ash pile.
And over all of it, Trump repeats his favorite line: that the people under the bombs “want to talk,” that he alone can make the deal, and that any conversation will happen on his schedule, after the air war has gone as far as he thinks it needs to.
In 24 hours, the war has found its core logic: diplomacy as a camera‑friendly halo for escalation, “freedom” as branding for a campaign already killing children, and “willing to talk” as the line you use while you find out how much is left to destroy.
#Iran #Trump #Israel #Khamenei #war #diplomacy #StraitOfHormuz
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