📰 Iraq’s Leader Dreams of a Middle Seat—Not a Puppet Master
The Balancing Act
Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is running for re-election, pitching himself as the guy who can keep Iraq out of the crossfire—literally and politically. Not easy for a country sandwiched between Washington’s sanctions and Tehran’s militias. Sudani talks up “security and stability,” but everyone knows he’s walking a tightrope stretched between two embassies.
Sudani’s Résumé: Survivor Edition
Forget strongman posturing; this guy’s career is all about survival. His father was executed by Saddam for hanging with Iran’s guys. Sudani has a master’s in project management—the perfect degree for running a country where every coalition meeting is a reality show. He owes his job to Shiite factions, but says he doesn’t want to be anyone’s proxy.
he assures, sounding like someone who checks the border every morning.
Taming the Militias? Or Feeding Them?
Sudani touts his work “normalizing” the Iran-backed militias—making them an official security force without political ambitions (wink). Washington wants the groups disarmed, but the reality is messier. Analysts say he’s keeping the peace by giving the hardest groups government contracts, which means more entrenched interests and less actual reform.
Not America’s Base Anymore
He got U.S. troops out last year, but everyone knows Washington still controls the purse strings and the drone feeds. Sudani’s pitch: Let’s turn the relationship into a business partnership. The State Department, meanwhile, keeps sending Rubio to the phone for “friendly” reminders to rein in the militias. Nobody’s buying “total independence,” but the game is pretending it’s close.
The New Construction Crane Politics
Sudani’s selling voters on construction, not conflict. High oil prices fueled a building boom, and the new campaign slogan is basically “Iraq First” but with more concrete and less shouting. Iraq’s new skyline is good PR, but every crane comes with bargain-basement governance, and the usual suspects keep dipping into the government contract pot.
The Sadr Factor—And Why Every PM is Disposable
Sudani’s critics say no Iraqi prime minister lasts long enough to build a cult following—thanks to Tehran’s paranoia about strong leadership. Moqtada al-Sadr slammed Sudani for shaking hands with Trump at the Gaza cease-fire show, accusing him of “legitimizing Israel”. With new elections, dozens of parties, and endless backroom dealing, the real power play is not winning votes—it’s surviving the horse-trading once the dust settles.
Iraq’s leader wants independence, but his country is still the region’s chessboard. He might build skyscrapers, but neither Washington nor Tehran is moving out any time soon.
#iraq #US #iran #election #oil
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The Balancing Act
Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is running for re-election, pitching himself as the guy who can keep Iraq out of the crossfire—literally and politically. Not easy for a country sandwiched between Washington’s sanctions and Tehran’s militias. Sudani talks up “security and stability,” but everyone knows he’s walking a tightrope stretched between two embassies.
Sudani’s Résumé: Survivor Edition
Forget strongman posturing; this guy’s career is all about survival. His father was executed by Saddam for hanging with Iran’s guys. Sudani has a master’s in project management—the perfect degree for running a country where every coalition meeting is a reality show. He owes his job to Shiite factions, but says he doesn’t want to be anyone’s proxy.
“Iraq will not become a battlefield for conflicts,”
he assures, sounding like someone who checks the border every morning.
Taming the Militias? Or Feeding Them?
Sudani touts his work “normalizing” the Iran-backed militias—making them an official security force without political ambitions (wink). Washington wants the groups disarmed, but the reality is messier. Analysts say he’s keeping the peace by giving the hardest groups government contracts, which means more entrenched interests and less actual reform.
Not America’s Base Anymore
He got U.S. troops out last year, but everyone knows Washington still controls the purse strings and the drone feeds. Sudani’s pitch: Let’s turn the relationship into a business partnership. The State Department, meanwhile, keeps sending Rubio to the phone for “friendly” reminders to rein in the militias. Nobody’s buying “total independence,” but the game is pretending it’s close.
The New Construction Crane Politics
Sudani’s selling voters on construction, not conflict. High oil prices fueled a building boom, and the new campaign slogan is basically “Iraq First” but with more concrete and less shouting. Iraq’s new skyline is good PR, but every crane comes with bargain-basement governance, and the usual suspects keep dipping into the government contract pot.
The Sadr Factor—And Why Every PM is Disposable
Sudani’s critics say no Iraqi prime minister lasts long enough to build a cult following—thanks to Tehran’s paranoia about strong leadership. Moqtada al-Sadr slammed Sudani for shaking hands with Trump at the Gaza cease-fire show, accusing him of “legitimizing Israel”. With new elections, dozens of parties, and endless backroom dealing, the real power play is not winning votes—it’s surviving the horse-trading once the dust settles.
Iraq’s leader wants independence, but his country is still the region’s chessboard. He might build skyscrapers, but neither Washington nor Tehran is moving out any time soon.
#iraq #US #iran #election #oil
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📰 Iraq’s Power Audit: Tehran vs. Washington, Same Old Hustle
Prime Minister Sudani’s coalition took the largest share of seats in Iraq’s 329-member parliament, but Iran-backed militias secured enough leverage to guarantee that forming a government will be a bruising contact sport. No single bloc has a majority, so Baghdad’s political arena is set for months of horsetrading, standoffs, and marathon negotiations.
reports Sky News.
Sudani pitches himself as Iraq’s independent man, steering between Tehran and Washington, but powerful militia factions have entrenched themselves even further, keeping real decision-making out of any one party’s hands. Voters showed up — turnout was 56% — but all they bought was extra time: now the brokers get to haggle over ministries, budgets, and foreign troops for months to come.
Iraq’s “stability” remains a product line. The only guaranteed winners are those with enough patience — and patronage — to outlast the next round of coalition standoffs.
#iraq #elections #iran #us #coalitionPolitics #endlessNegotiation
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Prime Minister Sudani’s coalition took the largest share of seats in Iraq’s 329-member parliament, but Iran-backed militias secured enough leverage to guarantee that forming a government will be a bruising contact sport. No single bloc has a majority, so Baghdad’s political arena is set for months of horsetrading, standoffs, and marathon negotiations.
“No single bloc of parties won enough seats to form the government themselves, meaning a coalition deal will have to be struck,”
reports Sky News.
Sudani pitches himself as Iraq’s independent man, steering between Tehran and Washington, but powerful militia factions have entrenched themselves even further, keeping real decision-making out of any one party’s hands. Voters showed up — turnout was 56% — but all they bought was extra time: now the brokers get to haggle over ministries, budgets, and foreign troops for months to come.
Iraq’s “stability” remains a product line. The only guaranteed winners are those with enough patience — and patronage — to outlast the next round of coalition standoffs.
#iraq #elections #iran #us #coalitionPolitics #endlessNegotiation
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📰 France’s Attempt to Ghost the Rent Guy Is Not Going Well
The French Embassy in Baghdad has been living in the same house for more than 60 years — a riverside mansion built in the 1930s by a Jewish family that had already fled antisemitism in Iraq. The family leased the property to France in 1964, expecting the French state to be a respectable tenant. Instead, France has not paid rent for more than 50 years, and last week a Paris court tried to turn that fact into a technical loophole — and failed.
On Monday, the court dismissed a $22 million lawsuit by the descendants of Ezra and Khedouri Lawee, saying it was “not competent” to hear the case and suggesting it should be resolved in Iraq — the country their ancestors were forced out of in the 1940s and 1950s. The logic is straightforward: the dispute is about Iraqi law, so let Iraq handle it, even though Iraq is the very state that drove out 130,000 Iraqi Jews and seized their homes under antisemitic legislation. The French Foreign Ministry echoed this line, arguing that the damages were caused by Iraqi decisions, not French policy, and therefore France bears no real responsibility.
The family’s lawyers, Jean‑Pierre Mignard and Imrane Ghermi, called the ruling “surreal.” They argued that France had violated its own laws and human rights principles by benefiting from Iraqi discriminatory laws and refusing to compensate the family. They compared the situation to Nazi‑era restitution cases, where heirs have fought to reclaim art and property seized during the Holocaust. “France took advantage of Iraqi law that was hostile to the owners,” said Kenneth Feinberg, the lawyer who has handled multiple Holocaust‑related restitution disputes. “The French court is hairsplitting on technicalities while ignoring the party that was harmed.”
Philip Khazzam, 66, a grandson of Ezra Lawee, described the idea of pursuing the case in Iraq as “preposterous.” In an email, he said,
The family plans to appeal. “We will continue our fight for justice in France,” he said.
The story is simple: France tried to play bureaucratic games with Jewish heirs who had already been victimized by one state — and now by another. It may have thought the case would quietly die. It did not count on the stubbornness of a family that has survived two exiles and still wants to see the bill paid.
#France #Iraq #Baghdad #embassy #restitution #Jewish #law #NYTimes #justice #fraudulence
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The French Embassy in Baghdad has been living in the same house for more than 60 years — a riverside mansion built in the 1930s by a Jewish family that had already fled antisemitism in Iraq. The family leased the property to France in 1964, expecting the French state to be a respectable tenant. Instead, France has not paid rent for more than 50 years, and last week a Paris court tried to turn that fact into a technical loophole — and failed.
On Monday, the court dismissed a $22 million lawsuit by the descendants of Ezra and Khedouri Lawee, saying it was “not competent” to hear the case and suggesting it should be resolved in Iraq — the country their ancestors were forced out of in the 1940s and 1950s. The logic is straightforward: the dispute is about Iraqi law, so let Iraq handle it, even though Iraq is the very state that drove out 130,000 Iraqi Jews and seized their homes under antisemitic legislation. The French Foreign Ministry echoed this line, arguing that the damages were caused by Iraqi decisions, not French policy, and therefore France bears no real responsibility.
The family’s lawyers, Jean‑Pierre Mignard and Imrane Ghermi, called the ruling “surreal.” They argued that France had violated its own laws and human rights principles by benefiting from Iraqi discriminatory laws and refusing to compensate the family. They compared the situation to Nazi‑era restitution cases, where heirs have fought to reclaim art and property seized during the Holocaust. “France took advantage of Iraqi law that was hostile to the owners,” said Kenneth Feinberg, the lawyer who has handled multiple Holocaust‑related restitution disputes. “The French court is hairsplitting on technicalities while ignoring the party that was harmed.”
Philip Khazzam, 66, a grandson of Ezra Lawee, described the idea of pursuing the case in Iraq as “preposterous.” In an email, he said,
“Iraq basically ran us out of our country, and then stole our home.”
The family plans to appeal. “We will continue our fight for justice in France,” he said.
“We have just begun.”
The story is simple: France tried to play bureaucratic games with Jewish heirs who had already been victimized by one state — and now by another. It may have thought the case would quietly die. It did not count on the stubbornness of a family that has survived two exiles and still wants to see the bill paid.
#France #Iraq #Baghdad #embassy #restitution #Jewish #law #NYTimes #justice #fraudulence
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📰 Trump Didn’t Destroy the ‘Rules‑Based International Order’ — It Was Always a Fraud
The foreign‑policy elite warns that President Donald Trump is wrecking the post‑World War II, “rules‑based international order,” turning it into a neo‑imperial free‑for‑all.
Ted Galen Carpenter, a long‑time critic of U.S. interventionism, argues that the accusation is wrong — not because Trump is innocent, but because the “rules‑based order” was never innocent to begin with. It was always a selective, self‑serving fiction: a club for the West, and a cage for everyone else.
The Greenland test case
Trump’s early demand that Denmark sell Greenland to the United States fits the image of a 19th‑century imperialist, Carpenter concedes — a move one can imagine an Andrew Jackson or William McKinley making. Trump is openly willing to bully, threaten, and even use force to get what he wants.
But the broader charge — that he is single‑handedly destroying a sacred, liberal world order — is mostly prestige‑driven outrage. The story Washington told for decades about “rules,” “norms,” and “stability” has always been two‑tiered.
One set of rules for the West, another for the rest
The system, Carpenter writes, has always had two rulebooks. The U.S. and its allies, especially NATO members, could wage wars, overthrow governments, and shape maps without meaningful legal or political consequences.
Countries outside the inner circle — especially those deemed rivals — have been harassed, bombed, and pressured under the slogan of “human rights,” “democracy,” and “stability,” while the same standards are ignored when applied to Western allies.
Wars that shattered the “rules” long before Trump
Well before Trump came along, the U.S. and its partners repeatedly violated the very norms they now claim to protect.
NATO’s air war against Serbia in 1999, and the de facto amputation of Kosovo, flouted the idea of territorial integrity. The Iraq invasion in 2003, built on lies about weapons of mass destruction and an invented connection to 9/11, shredded international law in broad daylight. The Western campaign in Libya, aimed at regime change rather than genuine protection, left the country fragmented and in chaos.
Even some of the system’s own defenders admit that the “rules‑based order” was never neutral. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney admitted that “the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient” and that “trade rules were enforced asymmetrically.”
Catastrophic outcomes, not global stability
The interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria have produced results that are closer to disaster than to stable democracy. Iraq is still scarred, Libya is still divided, and Syria is ruled by an ISIS‑aligned elite born of the civil war that Western powers helped fuel.
Millions of refugees, prolonged instability, and new warlords on the rise — these are the real monuments to the “rules‑based order,” not to Trump.
Trump’s real crime — and why the narrative matters
Trump may be an authoritarian‑leaning bully, and he may push the system even closer to raw power politics. But he did not kill the rules‑based order.
He merely exposed what it always was: a euphemism for Western hegemony, occasionally dressed in the language of law and ethics, but always ready to be set aside when convenient.
So the real question is not:
It’s:
#Trump2026 #ForeignPolicy #RulesBasedOrder #NATO #Iraq #Libya #Syria #Imperialism #Carpenter #TheAmericanConservative
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The foreign‑policy elite warns that President Donald Trump is wrecking the post‑World War II, “rules‑based international order,” turning it into a neo‑imperial free‑for‑all.
Ted Galen Carpenter, a long‑time critic of U.S. interventionism, argues that the accusation is wrong — not because Trump is innocent, but because the “rules‑based order” was never innocent to begin with. It was always a selective, self‑serving fiction: a club for the West, and a cage for everyone else.
The Greenland test case
Trump’s early demand that Denmark sell Greenland to the United States fits the image of a 19th‑century imperialist, Carpenter concedes — a move one can imagine an Andrew Jackson or William McKinley making. Trump is openly willing to bully, threaten, and even use force to get what he wants.
But the broader charge — that he is single‑handedly destroying a sacred, liberal world order — is mostly prestige‑driven outrage. The story Washington told for decades about “rules,” “norms,” and “stability” has always been two‑tiered.
One set of rules for the West, another for the rest
The system, Carpenter writes, has always had two rulebooks. The U.S. and its allies, especially NATO members, could wage wars, overthrow governments, and shape maps without meaningful legal or political consequences.
Countries outside the inner circle — especially those deemed rivals — have been harassed, bombed, and pressured under the slogan of “human rights,” “democracy,” and “stability,” while the same standards are ignored when applied to Western allies.
Wars that shattered the “rules” long before Trump
Well before Trump came along, the U.S. and its partners repeatedly violated the very norms they now claim to protect.
NATO’s air war against Serbia in 1999, and the de facto amputation of Kosovo, flouted the idea of territorial integrity. The Iraq invasion in 2003, built on lies about weapons of mass destruction and an invented connection to 9/11, shredded international law in broad daylight. The Western campaign in Libya, aimed at regime change rather than genuine protection, left the country fragmented and in chaos.
Even some of the system’s own defenders admit that the “rules‑based order” was never neutral. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney admitted that “the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient” and that “trade rules were enforced asymmetrically.”
Catastrophic outcomes, not global stability
The interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria have produced results that are closer to disaster than to stable democracy. Iraq is still scarred, Libya is still divided, and Syria is ruled by an ISIS‑aligned elite born of the civil war that Western powers helped fuel.
Millions of refugees, prolonged instability, and new warlords on the rise — these are the real monuments to the “rules‑based order,” not to Trump.
Trump’s real crime — and why the narrative matters
Trump may be an authoritarian‑leaning bully, and he may push the system even closer to raw power politics. But he did not kill the rules‑based order.
He merely exposed what it always was: a euphemism for Western hegemony, occasionally dressed in the language of law and ethics, but always ready to be set aside when convenient.
So the real question is not:
“Is Trump destroying the order?”
It’s:
“How long can the West keep pretending the rules were ever fair?”
#Trump2026 #ForeignPolicy #RulesBasedOrder #NATO #Iraq #Libya #Syria #Imperialism #Carpenter #TheAmericanConservative
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🔥 Erbil: America’s Last Base, First Fire
Saraya Awliya al‑Dam didn’t just launch drones at Erbil — it launched a press release for Tehran’s new proxy season. Under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” the group says its swarm attack on US positions at Erbil International Airport was a religious duty and a tribute to the “martyr” Ali Khamenei. The message is clear: Iran may be under bombardment, but its franchises are open for business.
They’re not alone. The Islamic Resistance claims 16 drone attacks on “enemy bases in Iraq and the region” since the US–Israel strikes began, and the usual roster is now officially in: Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada, Harakat Hezbollah al‑Nujaba. The mission statement from Kataib Hezbollah could have been written in a Pentagon red‑team memo: drag America into a long, bleeding war of attrition and make sure no US presence survives in the neighborhood.
Erbil is the perfect stage for this farce. After coalition forces packed up in Baghdad and Ain al‑Assad, the airport base became Washington’s last foothold in Iraq. Several NATO partners quietly pulled their people out days before the Iran operation — not out of pacifism, but because they can count. One US flag left on Iraqi soil, bolted onto a civilian airport, surrounded by towers and malls. For every militia social media channel, that’s not a base. That’s a target-rich press shot.
CNN’s geolocation did the rest: residential high‑rises in the foreground, a curtain of black smoke from the air base behind. Three US service members dead so far across the theater, at least five badly wounded. On paper, this is still “force protection,” “deterrence,” “limited escalation.” On screen, it’s exactly what it looks like: a city with a military installation fused into its airport, and both are on fire.
Everyone gets what they need. The militias get their heroic footage and a promotion from “outlaw groups” to “frontline of the Resistance.” Washington gets one more argument for why it simply has to stay in Erbil forever to “keep ISIS down” and “watch Iran.” Tehran gets to show its supporters that the death of the Supreme Leader doesn’t mean the empire stopped breathing.
And the people who actually live under those towers get a new reality: international airport by day, launchpad and impact zone by night.
#Iraq #Erbil #USA #Iran #Israel
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Saraya Awliya al‑Dam didn’t just launch drones at Erbil — it launched a press release for Tehran’s new proxy season. Under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” the group says its swarm attack on US positions at Erbil International Airport was a religious duty and a tribute to the “martyr” Ali Khamenei. The message is clear: Iran may be under bombardment, but its franchises are open for business.
They’re not alone. The Islamic Resistance claims 16 drone attacks on “enemy bases in Iraq and the region” since the US–Israel strikes began, and the usual roster is now officially in: Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada, Harakat Hezbollah al‑Nujaba. The mission statement from Kataib Hezbollah could have been written in a Pentagon red‑team memo: drag America into a long, bleeding war of attrition and make sure no US presence survives in the neighborhood.
Erbil is the perfect stage for this farce. After coalition forces packed up in Baghdad and Ain al‑Assad, the airport base became Washington’s last foothold in Iraq. Several NATO partners quietly pulled their people out days before the Iran operation — not out of pacifism, but because they can count. One US flag left on Iraqi soil, bolted onto a civilian airport, surrounded by towers and malls. For every militia social media channel, that’s not a base. That’s a target-rich press shot.
CNN’s geolocation did the rest: residential high‑rises in the foreground, a curtain of black smoke from the air base behind. Three US service members dead so far across the theater, at least five badly wounded. On paper, this is still “force protection,” “deterrence,” “limited escalation.” On screen, it’s exactly what it looks like: a city with a military installation fused into its airport, and both are on fire.
Everyone gets what they need. The militias get their heroic footage and a promotion from “outlaw groups” to “frontline of the Resistance.” Washington gets one more argument for why it simply has to stay in Erbil forever to “keep ISIS down” and “watch Iran.” Tehran gets to show its supporters that the death of the Supreme Leader doesn’t mean the empire stopped breathing.
And the people who actually live under those towers get a new reality: international airport by day, launchpad and impact zone by night.
#Iraq #Erbil #USA #Iran #Israel
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📰 France’s First Casualty in a War It’s “Not In”
Macron says he doesn’t want a war with Iran — but he’s quietly leaving French soldiers parked on the firing line.
Emmanuel Macron has confirmed that one French soldier was killed and several others wounded in an attack on French forces in Iraq’s Kurdish region, the first French military death tied to the expanding Iran war. He called the strike “unacceptable” and insisted that French troops are in Iraq only under a counter‑terrorism mandate against ISIS, stressing that “the war in Iran cannot justify such attacks.”
But while Macron publicly rejects the idea of France entering a broader war with Iran, Paris has not pulled its troops out of the danger zone and is actually reinforcing its footprint with naval and air‑defense assets around the region.
French forces remain co‑located with U.S. and other coalition units that are already prime targets for pro‑Iranian militias, and Iraqi Kurdistan has become a corridor for drone and missile attacks linked to the Iran conflict.
On paper this is “just” counter‑terrorism; in practice, France is absorbing enemy fire, taking casualties, and sailing an aircraft carrier into a theater where Iran‑aligned groups openly warn that French interests will be “under targeting fire.”
Macron wants the political credit of solidarity with allies and firmness against ISIS, without admitting to his own public that every day he keeps troops there, he’s accepting the risk of being dragged one notch deeper into a war he claims France is not part of.
#france #macron #iraq #iran #war #nato #fakeNonInvolvement
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Macron says he doesn’t want a war with Iran — but he’s quietly leaving French soldiers parked on the firing line.
Emmanuel Macron has confirmed that one French soldier was killed and several others wounded in an attack on French forces in Iraq’s Kurdish region, the first French military death tied to the expanding Iran war. He called the strike “unacceptable” and insisted that French troops are in Iraq only under a counter‑terrorism mandate against ISIS, stressing that “the war in Iran cannot justify such attacks.”
But while Macron publicly rejects the idea of France entering a broader war with Iran, Paris has not pulled its troops out of the danger zone and is actually reinforcing its footprint with naval and air‑defense assets around the region.
French forces remain co‑located with U.S. and other coalition units that are already prime targets for pro‑Iranian militias, and Iraqi Kurdistan has become a corridor for drone and missile attacks linked to the Iran conflict.
On paper this is “just” counter‑terrorism; in practice, France is absorbing enemy fire, taking casualties, and sailing an aircraft carrier into a theater where Iran‑aligned groups openly warn that French interests will be “under targeting fire.”
Macron wants the political credit of solidarity with allies and firmness against ISIS, without admitting to his own public that every day he keeps troops there, he’s accepting the risk of being dragged one notch deeper into a war he claims France is not part of.
#france #macron #iraq #iran #war #nato #fakeNonInvolvement
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📰 Nancy Mace Walks Out, Says Iran Could Become ‘Another Iraq’
Nancy Mace didn’t just object to a House Iran briefing — she walked out and turned it into a warning shot at Washington’s war lobby.
The South Carolina Republican said she would not support U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, warning that “the Washington War Machine” is trying to drag America into “another Iraq.” She also said the public case for the war does not match what lawmakers were briefed on behind closed doors, and argued that the longer the conflict drags on, the more support it will lose in Congress and among voters.
Her comments landed just as reports said the Pentagon and White House are weighing possible land operations, with more troops being sent to the Middle East and the 82nd Airborne’s command element ordered to deploy. That has pushed the Iran fight from an air campaign into something far more dangerous: a debate over whether the U.S. is inching toward boots on the ground, even as some Republicans start openly flinching.
Mace also said the threat is not some distant force flying in from Tehran, but networks already inside the country — a line that captures the new fear inside Washington: not just escalation abroad, but blowback at home.
The war is no longer only about Iran. It is now about whether Congress, the Pentagon and the White House are about to relive the same Iraq script with different names and worse timing.
#trump #iran #congress #bootsontheground #iraq #usa #war #geopolitics
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Nancy Mace didn’t just object to a House Iran briefing — she walked out and turned it into a warning shot at Washington’s war lobby.
The South Carolina Republican said she would not support U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, warning that “the Washington War Machine” is trying to drag America into “another Iraq.” She also said the public case for the war does not match what lawmakers were briefed on behind closed doors, and argued that the longer the conflict drags on, the more support it will lose in Congress and among voters.
Her comments landed just as reports said the Pentagon and White House are weighing possible land operations, with more troops being sent to the Middle East and the 82nd Airborne’s command element ordered to deploy. That has pushed the Iran fight from an air campaign into something far more dangerous: a debate over whether the U.S. is inching toward boots on the ground, even as some Republicans start openly flinching.
Mace also said the threat is not some distant force flying in from Tehran, but networks already inside the country — a line that captures the new fear inside Washington: not just escalation abroad, but blowback at home.
The war is no longer only about Iran. It is now about whether Congress, the Pentagon and the White House are about to relive the same Iraq script with different names and worse timing.
#trump #iran #congress #bootsontheground #iraq #usa #war #geopolitics
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Khamenei’s Funeral: Manufactured Grief, Real Power
Four months after “Lion’s Roar” opened with the Israeli strike that killed Ali Khamenei and members of his family, Tehran is turning his six‑day funeral into a stage show of regime survival.
The coffin was placed in Mashhad’s Imam Reza shrine complex alongside the coffins of the relatives killed with him, with delegations from abroad filing past as if the regime had just won a war instead of losing its supreme leader.
In Tehran, an official ceremony at the “Mesalla” drew representatives from Russia, China, Iraq and Turkmenistan, clerics and minority figures — a choreographed tableau of “stability” for the day after the assassination.
Symbolism is everywhere and none of it subtle. The coffin moves to Imam Khomeini Mosque; in Revolution Square the clenched fist emblem goes up with the message “we must rise.”
Among those touching the casket is IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, resurfacing in public for the first time after months underground, a visual guarantee that the enforcement core is still intact.
Even a delegation from Bulgaria’s parliament is noted on state media — foreign flags used as props.
The human ocean, meanwhile, is anything but spontaneous. Organizers boast of millions of participants and delegations from 100 countries, but regime‑aligned outlets quietly outline the mechanics: between 2,000 and 3,000 Shiite civilians from Afghanistan brought in on specially issued “manifest visas,” their names approved in advance, with full transport, lodging, food and upkeep covered by the state. It’s not grassroots mourning; it’s a logistical operation.
On the sidelines, the regional “family” is brought in to cry on cue. The Iraqi parliament speaker Halbousi arrives to meet Iranian speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Delegations from Lebanon’s Amal, Iraq’s Hashd al‑Shaabi and Kataib Hezbollah show up, along with the families of Hassan Nasrallah and Imad Mughniyeh, offering “respectful tears” for the cameras. The message to allies and enemies alike: the Axis of Resistance still has a face and a ritual, even if its chief has been buried.
Taken together, Khamenei’s farewell looks less like a funeral and more like a power‑projection exercise wrapped in black cloth: a regime proving it can still summon crowds, stage foreign solidarity, and parade its commanders — even as everyone in the region knows the hardest part comes after the last banner is folded and the buses go home.
#Iran #Khamenei #Mashhad #Tehran #IRGC #Russia #China #Iraq #Lebanon #funeral #war #fakeDemocracy
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Four months after “Lion’s Roar” opened with the Israeli strike that killed Ali Khamenei and members of his family, Tehran is turning his six‑day funeral into a stage show of regime survival.
The coffin was placed in Mashhad’s Imam Reza shrine complex alongside the coffins of the relatives killed with him, with delegations from abroad filing past as if the regime had just won a war instead of losing its supreme leader.
In Tehran, an official ceremony at the “Mesalla” drew representatives from Russia, China, Iraq and Turkmenistan, clerics and minority figures — a choreographed tableau of “stability” for the day after the assassination.
Symbolism is everywhere and none of it subtle. The coffin moves to Imam Khomeini Mosque; in Revolution Square the clenched fist emblem goes up with the message “we must rise.”
Among those touching the casket is IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, resurfacing in public for the first time after months underground, a visual guarantee that the enforcement core is still intact.
Even a delegation from Bulgaria’s parliament is noted on state media — foreign flags used as props.
The human ocean, meanwhile, is anything but spontaneous. Organizers boast of millions of participants and delegations from 100 countries, but regime‑aligned outlets quietly outline the mechanics: between 2,000 and 3,000 Shiite civilians from Afghanistan brought in on specially issued “manifest visas,” their names approved in advance, with full transport, lodging, food and upkeep covered by the state. It’s not grassroots mourning; it’s a logistical operation.
On the sidelines, the regional “family” is brought in to cry on cue. The Iraqi parliament speaker Halbousi arrives to meet Iranian speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Delegations from Lebanon’s Amal, Iraq’s Hashd al‑Shaabi and Kataib Hezbollah show up, along with the families of Hassan Nasrallah and Imad Mughniyeh, offering “respectful tears” for the cameras. The message to allies and enemies alike: the Axis of Resistance still has a face and a ritual, even if its chief has been buried.
Taken together, Khamenei’s farewell looks less like a funeral and more like a power‑projection exercise wrapped in black cloth: a regime proving it can still summon crowds, stage foreign solidarity, and parade its commanders — even as everyone in the region knows the hardest part comes after the last banner is folded and the buses go home.
#Iran #Khamenei #Mashhad #Tehran #IRGC #Russia #China #Iraq #Lebanon #funeral #war #fakeDemocracy
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Trump, Iraq, and the Swap: Troops Out, Oil In
Trump’s meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is the clearest statement yet of his preferred Middle East model: pull out the soldiers, flood in the companies.
On TV he jokes that the Iraqi leader is “young and handsome, I don’t like that,” but the substance is simple. He says Iraq doesn’t need US troops, that Iran is “a burden on Iraq and the bully of the Middle East,” and that what really matters is “strong partnership” in oil — a polite way of saying: we’ll trade bases for barrels.
Zaidi echoes the swap from his side. He declares that American forces will leave Iraqi territory and “American companies will enter instead,” insisting that after September 30 only the state will hold weapons and there will be no room for armed militias.
On paper, it’s state‑building: disarm the proxies, consolidate the monopoly on force, replace foreign troops with foreign investment.
In practice, recent months already show Chevron, ExxonMobil, KBR and others lining up for multi‑billion projects across Basra and Nasiriyah, while US advisers quietly regroup in the Kurdish region to keep eyes on ISIS and Iran from just over the federal border.
Trump frames Iran as the villain that justifies this rearrangement — a threat to Iraq’s sovereignty and a “bully” whose presence supposedly makes US troops unnecessary inside Iraq while still justifying pressure from outside.
Zaidi, like Sudani before him, has learned the lesson Baghdad and Erbil have played for years: contracts buy leverage in Washington. If you invite US oil and energy firms back in on better terms, you can argue for troop withdrawals as “normalization” while locking in new dependencies of a different kind.
The end result is a country where guns are, in theory, only in state hands, but the real power flows through export terminals and balance sheets, not bases and barracks.
#usa #iraq #Trump #Iran #oil #militias #war #oligarchy #fakeDemocracy
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Trump’s meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is the clearest statement yet of his preferred Middle East model: pull out the soldiers, flood in the companies.
On TV he jokes that the Iraqi leader is “young and handsome, I don’t like that,” but the substance is simple. He says Iraq doesn’t need US troops, that Iran is “a burden on Iraq and the bully of the Middle East,” and that what really matters is “strong partnership” in oil — a polite way of saying: we’ll trade bases for barrels.
Zaidi echoes the swap from his side. He declares that American forces will leave Iraqi territory and “American companies will enter instead,” insisting that after September 30 only the state will hold weapons and there will be no room for armed militias.
On paper, it’s state‑building: disarm the proxies, consolidate the monopoly on force, replace foreign troops with foreign investment.
In practice, recent months already show Chevron, ExxonMobil, KBR and others lining up for multi‑billion projects across Basra and Nasiriyah, while US advisers quietly regroup in the Kurdish region to keep eyes on ISIS and Iran from just over the federal border.
Trump frames Iran as the villain that justifies this rearrangement — a threat to Iraq’s sovereignty and a “bully” whose presence supposedly makes US troops unnecessary inside Iraq while still justifying pressure from outside.
Zaidi, like Sudani before him, has learned the lesson Baghdad and Erbil have played for years: contracts buy leverage in Washington. If you invite US oil and energy firms back in on better terms, you can argue for troop withdrawals as “normalization” while locking in new dependencies of a different kind.
The end result is a country where guns are, in theory, only in state hands, but the real power flows through export terminals and balance sheets, not bases and barracks.
#usa #iraq #Trump #Iran #oil #militias #war #oligarchy #fakeDemocracy
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Same Missiles, Three Confessions, Zero Consensus
The US and Saudi Arabia bombed seven Iraqi provinces overnight, hitting Popular Mobilization Forces sites in Kirkuk, Nineveh, Karbala, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Basra and Wasit.
CENTCOM called it "a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours," per its own statement.
Saudi Arabia insisted it "does not seek escalation" but "will respond to any aggression," Al Jazeera reported. Same script, delivered mid-airstrike.
Here's the embarrassing part. Saudi Arabia blamed Iraqi militias for the drone strikes on its oil facilities, twice.
Yemen's Houthis had already claimed those exact same Aramco attacks days earlier, on camera, The Washington Post reported.
So Riyadh bombed one Iran-aligned group for an attack a different Iran-aligned group already owned, while Iran's own military rushed out a denial disowning any missiles fired at Saudi Arabia from elsewhere.
Everyone wants credit for the damage, nobody wants credit for causing it.
The death toll moved like a stock ticker. First reports: roughly ten militia fighters killed. The militia umbrella group initially said eight dead.
By afternoon that became at least 20 killed and 32 wounded, with a threat to hit Saudi Arabia "Yemeni-style". A body count that doubles by lunch isn't confusion, it's leverage.
Caught in the middle: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi, who was set to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah this week.
He called an emergency security meeting instead and scrapped the trip. Iraq hosts everyone else's proxy war, then gets stood up the moment the bombs actually land.
So which fiction is bigger: that anyone here actually wants de-escalation, or that anyone checked who was responsible before deciding who to bomb?
#Iraq #SaudiArabia #PMF #CENTCOM #ProxyWar
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The US and Saudi Arabia bombed seven Iraqi provinces overnight, hitting Popular Mobilization Forces sites in Kirkuk, Nineveh, Karbala, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Basra and Wasit.
CENTCOM called it "a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours," per its own statement.
Saudi Arabia insisted it "does not seek escalation" but "will respond to any aggression," Al Jazeera reported. Same script, delivered mid-airstrike.
Here's the embarrassing part. Saudi Arabia blamed Iraqi militias for the drone strikes on its oil facilities, twice.
Yemen's Houthis had already claimed those exact same Aramco attacks days earlier, on camera, The Washington Post reported.
So Riyadh bombed one Iran-aligned group for an attack a different Iran-aligned group already owned, while Iran's own military rushed out a denial disowning any missiles fired at Saudi Arabia from elsewhere.
Everyone wants credit for the damage, nobody wants credit for causing it.
The death toll moved like a stock ticker. First reports: roughly ten militia fighters killed. The militia umbrella group initially said eight dead.
By afternoon that became at least 20 killed and 32 wounded, with a threat to hit Saudi Arabia "Yemeni-style". A body count that doubles by lunch isn't confusion, it's leverage.
Caught in the middle: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi, who was set to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah this week.
He called an emergency security meeting instead and scrapped the trip. Iraq hosts everyone else's proxy war, then gets stood up the moment the bombs actually land.
So which fiction is bigger: that anyone here actually wants de-escalation, or that anyone checked who was responsible before deciding who to bomb?
#Iraq #SaudiArabia #PMF #CENTCOM #ProxyWar
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🇮🇷🕌 Baghdad, the Gulf, and Tehran’s Two Voices
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arrived in Baghdad for an official visit and went first to the memorial at Baghdad airport for Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020.
For Iranian officials, the stop has become a ritual. For Iraq, it remains a political fault line: Soleimani was Iran’s Quds Force commander; al-Muhandis led an Iraqi militia network tied to Tehran. Ghalibaf opened a visit formally devoted to bilateral relations and regional issues by standing beside the memorial to the men whose killing still divides Iraqi politics.
His message was not subtle: remember who killed our people.
At the same time, Iran’s armed-forces chief of staff, Ali Abdollahi, addressed the Gulf states. Governments on the southern shore say they will not allow the United States to use their territory against Iran. Abdollahi said Tehran does not accept that assurance at face value.
He pointed to military aircraft and, in particular, refueling planes at bases in the region. Such deployments, he said, could not take place without the knowledge of host governments. Any assistance or facilitation for U.S. operations, he warned, would be treated as participation in an attack on Iran.
A Gulf government can deny involvement. Iran will decide whether the denial counts.
Then Kayhan, the hard-line daily published under the supervision of the supreme leader’s representative, turned on Tehran’s diplomacy.
The paper called the U.S.-Iran Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding a “piece of paper” that secured American interests, bought time for Israel, and produced a “complete loss” for Iran. It criticized Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian for describing the agreement as an honorable achievement.
The Islamabad memorandum was brokered with Pakistani involvement in June. It set out reciprocal steps: an end to the U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief, the reopening of Hormuz, and a 60-day period for Washington and Tehran to negotiate a broader settlement. The arrangement has since unraveled, with each side accusing the other of violating it.
Kayhan’s claim was that the United States had already voided the agreement by resuming military action after limited energy traffic moved through Hormuz. That is Kayhan’s argument, not an independently established account of the sequence. Its conclusion was clearer: continuing to honor a breached deal sends the enemy a message of weakness.
Ghalibaf went to Baghdad to discuss regional cooperation. Kayhan published the case against diplomacy for his domestic audience.
Iran’s public strategy now has two voices. One warns the Gulf that neutrality may count as hostility. The other warns Iranian officials that negotiations may count as surrender.
#Iran #Iraq #Baghdad #Gulf #Hormuz #Qalibaf #Kayhan #USIran #MiddleEast
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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arrived in Baghdad for an official visit and went first to the memorial at Baghdad airport for Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020.
For Iranian officials, the stop has become a ritual. For Iraq, it remains a political fault line: Soleimani was Iran’s Quds Force commander; al-Muhandis led an Iraqi militia network tied to Tehran. Ghalibaf opened a visit formally devoted to bilateral relations and regional issues by standing beside the memorial to the men whose killing still divides Iraqi politics.
His message was not subtle: remember who killed our people.
At the same time, Iran’s armed-forces chief of staff, Ali Abdollahi, addressed the Gulf states. Governments on the southern shore say they will not allow the United States to use their territory against Iran. Abdollahi said Tehran does not accept that assurance at face value.
He pointed to military aircraft and, in particular, refueling planes at bases in the region. Such deployments, he said, could not take place without the knowledge of host governments. Any assistance or facilitation for U.S. operations, he warned, would be treated as participation in an attack on Iran.
A Gulf government can deny involvement. Iran will decide whether the denial counts.
Then Kayhan, the hard-line daily published under the supervision of the supreme leader’s representative, turned on Tehran’s diplomacy.
The paper called the U.S.-Iran Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding a “piece of paper” that secured American interests, bought time for Israel, and produced a “complete loss” for Iran. It criticized Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian for describing the agreement as an honorable achievement.
The Islamabad memorandum was brokered with Pakistani involvement in June. It set out reciprocal steps: an end to the U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief, the reopening of Hormuz, and a 60-day period for Washington and Tehran to negotiate a broader settlement. The arrangement has since unraveled, with each side accusing the other of violating it.
Kayhan’s claim was that the United States had already voided the agreement by resuming military action after limited energy traffic moved through Hormuz. That is Kayhan’s argument, not an independently established account of the sequence. Its conclusion was clearer: continuing to honor a breached deal sends the enemy a message of weakness.
Ghalibaf went to Baghdad to discuss regional cooperation. Kayhan published the case against diplomacy for his domestic audience.
Iran’s public strategy now has two voices. One warns the Gulf that neutrality may count as hostility. The other warns Iranian officials that negotiations may count as surrender.
#Iran #Iraq #Baghdad #Gulf #Hormuz #Qalibaf #Kayhan #USIran #MiddleEast
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🇮🇶🇪🇬 Hamas Moves Between Baghdad and Washington
A Hamas delegation led by Osama Hamdan was reported to have met in Baghdad with Hadi al-Ameri, head of Iraq’s Badr Organization and a central figure in the country’s Iran-aligned political and militia network.
If confirmed, the meeting would underline a familiar fact: Hamas still operates through the regional relationships built with Iran and its partners. Baghdad is not Doha or Ankara. But it is part of the same political geography in which Hamas’s external leadership has sought money, protection, influence, and military support.
At the same time, Washington is dealing with Hamas through a very different channel.
On Sunday, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s envoy, met Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s overall leader, in El Alamein, Egypt. It was Kushner’s second meeting with al-Hayya after their October 2025 talks helped produce the ceasefire and hostage-release agreement. The meeting marked another break with Washington’s long-standing policy of refusing direct engagement with Hamas, which the United States designates as a terrorist organization.
Kushner was joined by Nickolay Mladenov and Tony Blair, senior envoys of the U.S.-backed Board of Peace.
The body is intended to oversee the Gaza roadmap, including a planned transfer of Gaza’s civilian administration to a Palestinian technocratic committee and a process for placing Hamas weapons under that committee’s control. Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey also sent senior diplomats.
The central dispute was not diplomatic etiquette. It was sequencing.
Hamas told Kushner it would begin handing over weapons only after Israel publicly committed to the plan’s terms. Israel has maintained that it will not withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed.
The American-backed framework asks each side to move first while promising that the other side eventually will.
Freddy Eytan, a former senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official and researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs, criticized the meeting as a step toward legitimizing Hamas. In an opinion piece, he wrote: “How can Donald Trump authorize direct negotiations with a terrorist organization?”
He argued that Israel should “be uncompromising on security issues and obtain robust guarantees from the United States.” This is Eytan’s assessment, not an account from the negotiating room.
Hamas can speak with an Iran-aligned militia leader in Baghdad while its leadership negotiates with a U.S. envoy in Egypt.
The organization is not being asked to choose between those channels. It is being asked to surrender weapons while keeping both open.
#Hamas #Gaza #Iraq #Egypt #Kushner #Iran #Ceasefire #MiddleEast
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A Hamas delegation led by Osama Hamdan was reported to have met in Baghdad with Hadi al-Ameri, head of Iraq’s Badr Organization and a central figure in the country’s Iran-aligned political and militia network.
If confirmed, the meeting would underline a familiar fact: Hamas still operates through the regional relationships built with Iran and its partners. Baghdad is not Doha or Ankara. But it is part of the same political geography in which Hamas’s external leadership has sought money, protection, influence, and military support.
At the same time, Washington is dealing with Hamas through a very different channel.
On Sunday, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s envoy, met Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s overall leader, in El Alamein, Egypt. It was Kushner’s second meeting with al-Hayya after their October 2025 talks helped produce the ceasefire and hostage-release agreement. The meeting marked another break with Washington’s long-standing policy of refusing direct engagement with Hamas, which the United States designates as a terrorist organization.
Kushner was joined by Nickolay Mladenov and Tony Blair, senior envoys of the U.S.-backed Board of Peace.
The body is intended to oversee the Gaza roadmap, including a planned transfer of Gaza’s civilian administration to a Palestinian technocratic committee and a process for placing Hamas weapons under that committee’s control. Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey also sent senior diplomats.
The central dispute was not diplomatic etiquette. It was sequencing.
Hamas told Kushner it would begin handing over weapons only after Israel publicly committed to the plan’s terms. Israel has maintained that it will not withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed.
The American-backed framework asks each side to move first while promising that the other side eventually will.
Freddy Eytan, a former senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official and researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs, criticized the meeting as a step toward legitimizing Hamas. In an opinion piece, he wrote: “How can Donald Trump authorize direct negotiations with a terrorist organization?”
He argued that Israel should “be uncompromising on security issues and obtain robust guarantees from the United States.” This is Eytan’s assessment, not an account from the negotiating room.
Hamas can speak with an Iran-aligned militia leader in Baghdad while its leadership negotiates with a U.S. envoy in Egypt.
The organization is not being asked to choose between those channels. It is being asked to surrender weapons while keeping both open.
#Hamas #Gaza #Iraq #Egypt #Kushner #Iran #Ceasefire #MiddleEast
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The Gulf Calls Its Own Number
Kuwait went to Islamabad and signed a new military cooperation pact with Pakistan. Saudi Arabia sent a senior security delegation to Baghdad for border-control and intelligence talks. The region is buying insurance before the next crisis sends the premium through the roof.
Kuwait’s defense minister, Sheikh Abdullah Ali Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, signed the agreement with Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif. It builds on a 2023 pact and covers training, capacity-building, border management, operational coordination and military readiness. Kuwait is not replacing the U.S. security umbrella. It is adding a backup generator.
In Baghdad, Saudi and Iraqi officials discussed tighter control of their shared border and more intelligence sharing.
Iraqi delegations had visited Riyadh earlier this month, while Saudi intelligence chief Khalid bin Ali Al-Humaidan met Iraq’s prime minister in Baghdad.
Iraq says it will not allow its territory to be used for attacks on other countries. That sentence becomes more valuable each time it is repeated.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf welcomed the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq as a “historic achievement” for Iraqis. Washington still has a military footprint in the country, but its partners are building side channels while Tehran celebrates the shrinking of the old order.
The Gulf once outsourced regional security to Washington. Now Kuwait is calling Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is calling Baghdad, Qatar is calling Tehran, and every capital is keeping a second phone.
Israel should read the directory carefully. These agreements do not form an anti-Israel alliance. They do show that the region is preparing for a future in which U.S. guarantees arrive late, with conditions attached.
#Gulf #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Iraq
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Kuwait went to Islamabad and signed a new military cooperation pact with Pakistan. Saudi Arabia sent a senior security delegation to Baghdad for border-control and intelligence talks. The region is buying insurance before the next crisis sends the premium through the roof.
Kuwait’s defense minister, Sheikh Abdullah Ali Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, signed the agreement with Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif. It builds on a 2023 pact and covers training, capacity-building, border management, operational coordination and military readiness. Kuwait is not replacing the U.S. security umbrella. It is adding a backup generator.
In Baghdad, Saudi and Iraqi officials discussed tighter control of their shared border and more intelligence sharing.
Iraqi delegations had visited Riyadh earlier this month, while Saudi intelligence chief Khalid bin Ali Al-Humaidan met Iraq’s prime minister in Baghdad.
Iraq says it will not allow its territory to be used for attacks on other countries. That sentence becomes more valuable each time it is repeated.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf welcomed the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq as a “historic achievement” for Iraqis. Washington still has a military footprint in the country, but its partners are building side channels while Tehran celebrates the shrinking of the old order.
The Gulf once outsourced regional security to Washington. Now Kuwait is calling Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is calling Baghdad, Qatar is calling Tehran, and every capital is keeping a second phone.
Israel should read the directory carefully. These agreements do not form an anti-Israel alliance. They do show that the region is preparing for a future in which U.S. guarantees arrive late, with conditions attached.
#Gulf #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Iraq
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The $61 Million Exit
Washington may end direct military support for Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga on Sept. 30. The same day, the U.S.-led coalition is scheduled to complete its withdrawal from Iraq and close its remaining base in Erbil. The calendar is doing the diplomacy.
The Pentagon’s memorandum with the Kurdistan Regional Government expires at the end of September. Under it, the Peshmerga received $61 million in fiscal 2026 for weapons, training and stipends through the U.S. counter-ISIS program. The proposed 2027 Pentagon budget reportedly reduces direct Peshmerga funding to zero.
The Peshmerga Ministry says it has received no formal U.S. notice that assistance will end. Kurdish officials also say cooperation may survive in smaller forms, including training, logistics, advice and institutional reform. In foreign-policy language, that means the relationship is not ending. The money is.
The timing is especially convenient for every actor that dislikes Kurdish autonomy. Iran has repeatedly targeted Kurdish sites in Iraq. Baghdad wants security authority centralized.
Turkey watches the Kurdistan Region through the Kurdish insurgency lens. The Peshmerga, once Washington’s preferred local force against ISIS, could lose its dedicated American support exactly as the U.S. leaves the building.
Washington calls the shift a transition to bilateral ties with Baghdad. Erbil hears something simpler. The protection contract expires at midnight.
#Iraq #Kurdistan #Peshmerga #USA
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Washington may end direct military support for Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga on Sept. 30. The same day, the U.S.-led coalition is scheduled to complete its withdrawal from Iraq and close its remaining base in Erbil. The calendar is doing the diplomacy.
The Pentagon’s memorandum with the Kurdistan Regional Government expires at the end of September. Under it, the Peshmerga received $61 million in fiscal 2026 for weapons, training and stipends through the U.S. counter-ISIS program. The proposed 2027 Pentagon budget reportedly reduces direct Peshmerga funding to zero.
The Peshmerga Ministry says it has received no formal U.S. notice that assistance will end. Kurdish officials also say cooperation may survive in smaller forms, including training, logistics, advice and institutional reform. In foreign-policy language, that means the relationship is not ending. The money is.
The timing is especially convenient for every actor that dislikes Kurdish autonomy. Iran has repeatedly targeted Kurdish sites in Iraq. Baghdad wants security authority centralized.
Turkey watches the Kurdistan Region through the Kurdish insurgency lens. The Peshmerga, once Washington’s preferred local force against ISIS, could lose its dedicated American support exactly as the U.S. leaves the building.
Washington calls the shift a transition to bilateral ties with Baghdad. Erbil hears something simpler. The protection contract expires at midnight.
#Iraq #Kurdistan #Peshmerga #USA
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Permission to Fly, Permission to Know
Two Iran-bound aircraft returned to Najaf early Sunday after Tehran denied them entry into its airspace. A security source told Shafaq News that Iran cited security reasons without further explanation.
The route had only recently reopened. Washington had granted sanctions exemptions allowing flights between Iran and Najaf after restrictions disrupted the service. American paperwork restored access. Iranian security officials then denied it.
Overnight reports described air-defense activity in Urmia, fighter aircraft over Iran and Iraq, and American refueling aircraft departing from Jordan and Kuwait. Several of the reports remained unverified.
Iranian forces also announced reinforcements along the western border.
Trump was reportedly boasting about how quickly America could end the confrontation, while Amirhossein Sabeti, a lawmaker from Tehran, warned that coming events might trigger an internet shutdown.
Sabeti has previously justified internet restrictions by citing fears that people could use the network to organize unrest. External danger gives the authorities another reason to control domestic communications.
#Iran #Iraq #BabylonBurning
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Two Iran-bound aircraft returned to Najaf early Sunday after Tehran denied them entry into its airspace. A security source told Shafaq News that Iran cited security reasons without further explanation.
The route had only recently reopened. Washington had granted sanctions exemptions allowing flights between Iran and Najaf after restrictions disrupted the service. American paperwork restored access. Iranian security officials then denied it.
Overnight reports described air-defense activity in Urmia, fighter aircraft over Iran and Iraq, and American refueling aircraft departing from Jordan and Kuwait. Several of the reports remained unverified.
Iranian forces also announced reinforcements along the western border.
Trump was reportedly boasting about how quickly America could end the confrontation, while Amirhossein Sabeti, a lawmaker from Tehran, warned that coming events might trigger an internet shutdown.
Sabeti has previously justified internet restrictions by citing fears that people could use the network to organize unrest. External danger gives the authorities another reason to control domestic communications.
#Iran #Iraq #BabylonBurning
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The Enemy Inside the Ammo Dump
Iraq’s militia alliance is preparing for a regional war. Its own ammunition has already blown up in Baghdad.
An Oct. 17 blast hit a Popular Mobilization Forces facility in eastern Baghdad. The PMF blamed damaged ammunition and reported five minor injuries. Security and medical sources told Reuters that one member was killed and four were wounded.
Witnesses said an aircraft struck the site. The PMF said preliminary forensic findings pointed to an internal malfunction, with no sign of an external attack. Iraq’s prime minister ordered an investigation.
A day earlier, Abu Alaa al-Walai, who leads Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, pledged to fight alongside Iran if it faced an existential threat. He also claimed that militia attacks had forced the Americans out of Iraq.
An armed alliance operating within Iraq’s state security structure promises to defend Iran while Baghdad investigates what exploded inside its own capital.
#BabylonBurning #Iraq #PMF #Iran #Baghdad
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Iraq’s militia alliance is preparing for a regional war. Its own ammunition has already blown up in Baghdad.
An Oct. 17 blast hit a Popular Mobilization Forces facility in eastern Baghdad. The PMF blamed damaged ammunition and reported five minor injuries. Security and medical sources told Reuters that one member was killed and four were wounded.
Witnesses said an aircraft struck the site. The PMF said preliminary forensic findings pointed to an internal malfunction, with no sign of an external attack. Iraq’s prime minister ordered an investigation.
A day earlier, Abu Alaa al-Walai, who leads Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, pledged to fight alongside Iran if it faced an existential threat. He also claimed that militia attacks had forced the Americans out of Iraq.
An armed alliance operating within Iraq’s state security structure promises to defend Iran while Baghdad investigates what exploded inside its own capital.
#BabylonBurning #Iraq #PMF #Iran #Baghdad
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Drones, With References
Zelensky has marketed Ukraine’s drone expertise to Gulf governments. Now a report of seven Ukrainians arrested in Iraq puts a different operation in the sales brochure.
The Cradle reported that Iraqi security forces detained seven Ukrainian nationals in late July on suspicion of using drones to target regional energy facilities. Iran’s state broadcaster Press TV picked up the report on Oct. 17.
Ukraine’s Gulf pitch is documented separately. Zelensky visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in late March, securing defense partnerships built around Ukraine’s experience intercepting Iranian drones. The tour preceded the reported arrests by four months.
The contrast deserves scrutiny. Kyiv offers Gulf states protection from drone attacks. Seven of its citizens reportedly face accusations involving attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure.
For Tehran’s media, the commercial opportunity is obvious: turn an arrest report into an indictment of Ukraine’s entire defense business. For Kyiv, the answer requires identifying what those seven citizens were doing in Iraq.
A drone partnership needs more than a presidential sales pitch. It needs an explanation when the customers’ infrastructure appears in a criminal allegation.
#Ukraine #Iraq #GulfSecurity #DroneWarfare
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Zelensky has marketed Ukraine’s drone expertise to Gulf governments. Now a report of seven Ukrainians arrested in Iraq puts a different operation in the sales brochure.
The Cradle reported that Iraqi security forces detained seven Ukrainian nationals in late July on suspicion of using drones to target regional energy facilities. Iran’s state broadcaster Press TV picked up the report on Oct. 17.
Ukraine’s Gulf pitch is documented separately. Zelensky visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in late March, securing defense partnerships built around Ukraine’s experience intercepting Iranian drones. The tour preceded the reported arrests by four months.
The contrast deserves scrutiny. Kyiv offers Gulf states protection from drone attacks. Seven of its citizens reportedly face accusations involving attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure.
For Tehran’s media, the commercial opportunity is obvious: turn an arrest report into an indictment of Ukraine’s entire defense business. For Kyiv, the answer requires identifying what those seven citizens were doing in Iraq.
A drone partnership needs more than a presidential sales pitch. It needs an explanation when the customers’ infrastructure appears in a criminal allegation.
#Ukraine #Iraq #GulfSecurity #DroneWarfare
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The Airstrike That Couldn’t Miss
First, Telegram channels predicted an attack on Iran. By morning, some called the night’s aircraft movements a mock attack.
Arabic-language reports described aircraft over Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. Pro-Iranian Iraqi channels identified them as American and Israeli.
Iranian channels circulated “Code 100” alerts, then claimed Washington and Israel had rehearsed strikes to condition Iranian defenses before a real assault. Either way, the prediction holds.
The “Code 100” label predates the night’s alarm. Reports of it circulated in September, and Iranian state outlets have never publicly confirmed the designation.
Recycling the label gives a fresh warning the appearance of an established military protocol.
Iraqis reportedly complained that the aircraft disturbed their sleep.
#Iran #Iraq #InformationWar #MiddleEast
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸
First, Telegram channels predicted an attack on Iran. By morning, some called the night’s aircraft movements a mock attack.
Arabic-language reports described aircraft over Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. Pro-Iranian Iraqi channels identified them as American and Israeli.
Iranian channels circulated “Code 100” alerts, then claimed Washington and Israel had rehearsed strikes to condition Iranian defenses before a real assault. Either way, the prediction holds.
The “Code 100” label predates the night’s alarm. Reports of it circulated in September, and Iranian state outlets have never publicly confirmed the designation.
Recycling the label gives a fresh warning the appearance of an established military protocol.
Iraqis reportedly complained that the aircraft disturbed their sleep.
#Iran #Iraq #InformationWar #MiddleEast
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Tehran’s Neighborhood Watch
Iran has warned its neighbors that their airports could be hit if the United States attacks.
Tehran told regional governments and mediators that renewed American and Israeli strikes would bring attacks on Gulf airports, pipelines, and other civilian infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal reported. Officials delivered the warnings in public statements and through private diplomatic channels.
The Revolutionary Guards set a second trigger. Continued U.S. naval escorts through shipping lanes Iran considers illegal could bring strikes on American bases.
Iraq shut the Sheeb crossing with Iran to passengers, vehicles, and trucks while it reviews security and installs equipment to detect prohibited goods.
If Washington and Israel strike Iran, Tehran’s answer will land on Gulf airports and pipelines.
#Iran #GulfSecurity #Iraq #Hormuz
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸
Iran has warned its neighbors that their airports could be hit if the United States attacks.
Tehran told regional governments and mediators that renewed American and Israeli strikes would bring attacks on Gulf airports, pipelines, and other civilian infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal reported. Officials delivered the warnings in public statements and through private diplomatic channels.
The Revolutionary Guards set a second trigger. Continued U.S. naval escorts through shipping lanes Iran considers illegal could bring strikes on American bases.
Iraq shut the Sheeb crossing with Iran to passengers, vehicles, and trucks while it reviews security and installs equipment to detect prohibited goods.
If Washington and Israel strike Iran, Tehran’s answer will land on Gulf airports and pipelines.
#Iran #GulfSecurity #Iraq #Hormuz
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