The Sunni Counteroffensive

Saudi air power is back over Yemen. Government forces, Sunni militias and UAE-backed formations are pushing against the Houthis from Taiz to southern Hodeidah, while the road to Mokha becomes the prize nobody can afford to lose.

The Houthis advanced in Taiz and seized positions west of the city. Their offensive aimed to cut the Taiz-Mokha highway, the government’s strategic supply route to the Red Sea.

The counterattack took back ground in Jabal Habashi, hit Houthi reinforcements south of al-Jarrahi and reopened the war for Hodeidah’s coast. More than 60 people died in the first days of fighting.

The military map explains the panic. The Houthis hold Yemen’s populous northwest: Sanaa, Saada, Amran, Hajjah, Dhamar and Ibb. The government and its Saudi-Emirati sponsors hold the east and south: Hadramawt, al-Mahra, Shabwa, Marib, Abyan, Lahj and Aden.

The Sunni advance is now concentrated in western Taiz and the coastal belt toward al-Khokha, Mokha and eventually Hodeidah.

Tariq Mohammed Abdullah Saleh’s National Resistance forces, built around veterans of the former Republican Guard and Central Security forces, hold the Red Sea front with Emirati backing.

Their counterattack in al-Jarrahi is more than a local maneuver. It is the opening move in a Saudi-Emirati attempt to break the Houthi hold on Yemen’s western gate.

The Houthis say they shot down a Saudi CH-4 armed reconnaissance drone over al-Jawf. Saudi Arabia has not issued a public response.

Jihadist networks in Syria have already turned Yemen into a prophecy. They brand the offensive with the name of the campaign that brought down Assad, pair Taiz with Idlib, and present the collapse of Iran’s regional axis as the prelude to a Sunni march on Jerusalem.

That is the real danger of destroying Iran and its proxies while leaving the Salafi-jihadist ideology intact.

Tehran restrained jihadists because it gave Sunni militants an enemy, a battlefield and a reason for their own patrons to keep them contained.

Remove the Shia axis, and the men waving black flags do not suddenly become democrats. They start looking west.

For them, Hodeidah is not a port. It is a station on the road to Jerusalem.

#Yemen #Houthis #SaudiArabia #Jihadism

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Turkey’s Gaza Classroom

More than 300 Palestinian boys and girls received certificates and prizes in Deir al-Balah after memorizing the Quran. The organizer was the Aziz Mahmud Hüdayi Foundation, a Turkish Islamic charity that says more than 10,000 students take part in its education and aid programs across Gaza.

The foundation bears the name of Aziz Mahmud Hüdayi, a Sufi sheikh, poet and spiritual adviser to Ottoman sultans. That heritage is not a random branding choice. Erdoğan’s Turkey has spent years rebuilding influence through Ottoman memory, religious networks, charitable work and the language of Muslim guardianship.

A certificate ceremony is softer than a military base. It is also more durable. Soldiers leave when the war map changes.

A child who spends years inside a foreign-funded religious education network carries its worldview into the next generation.

Turkey calls this humanitarian work. Israel calls it a security problem. Hamas sees an ally’s infrastructure.

All three are correct. Gaza is being rebuilt by competing patrons before it is rebuilt for Gazans.

The weapons arrive with a serial number. Influence arrives with a prize, a certificate and a child reciting from memory.

#Gaza #Turkey #Erdogan #PoliticalIslam

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The Army’s Empty Wallet

Israel is fighting on several fronts with tank battalions parked for lack of spare parts, hundreds of damaged Humvees awaiting replacement and ammunition lines approaching shutdown.

The country that built a military brand around permanent readiness has discovered that readiness requires cash, not slogans.

The dispute centers on NIS 40 billion in war-related spending. Netanyahu’s government approved an increase in the 2026 defense budget from NIS 143 billion to NIS 183 billion, including an immediate NIS 15 billion transfer.

The Defense Ministry says the money has yet to arrive. The Treasury has turned a war budget into a hostage negotiation conducted inside the same government.

The costs are now visible in equipment. The IDF has taken several tank battalions out of service because it cannot buy parts.

Hundreds of Israel-configured Humvees were damaged during fighting in Lebanon, while their U.S. production line is nearing its end.

A military that has built its doctrine around rapid mobility is short of the vehicles that move troops to the fight.

The procurement calendar is even uglier. Elbit’s Merkava tank-shell line may stop within days.

Artillery-shell production is expected to run out of orders in October, followed by mortar munitions in November. Israeli intelligence units have reportedly begun deleting files because they cannot expand digital storage.

The country can locate targets across the region, then erase the archive to pay the electricity bill.

Israel has spent three years saying this is an existential war. Its finance ministry is now asking whether existential wars come with an installment plan.

The IDF does not lack threats. It lacks the money to keep buying the machines meant to answer them.

#Israel #IDF #DefenseBudget #War

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🧹Trump & Hitler: Bye Bye, Kharg

Donald Trump did not post a battlefield image. He posted a war poster.

“Bye bye, Kharg,” says the caption above a fighter jet flying toward an Iranian oil terminal. Tanks explode. Tankers burn.

The pilot’s seat is absent, but the message has a signature.

Trump turns a possible strike on Iran’s main oil-export hub into a glossy piece of personal branding.

The image does not show a verified attack. It stages one. U.S. officials had said American forces did not target Kharg in the earlier round of strikes, while Iran said the island’s oil operations continued.

Trump’s video was a threat packaged as a trailer.

Kharg is no prop. Before the war, the island handled roughly 90 percent of Iranian oil exports.

An actual assault on its terminal would hit Tehran’s central revenue source and inject panic into Gulf shipping and global oil markets.

An Austrian artist once learned that politics offered more space for composition than a canvas. He painted maps, borders and ruined cities until Europe became a graveyard.

Trump is not Hitler. America is not the Third Reich. But Trump has what the Austrian painter lacked: carrier groups, stealth aircraft, satellite surveillance and enough firepower to turn a foreign country into content before the next news cycle.

The Austrian painter destroyed a continent. Trump draws on the world map.

#Trump #Iran #Kharg #War

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The Border Tollbooth

Canada answered Trump’s tariff threats with a customs invoice. At 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, Ottawa’s new duties of 15%, 25% and 50% hit more than 700 categories of U.S. goods, covering C$27.6 billion in imports.

Steel, dairy, clothing, electronics and industrial equipment all get a front-row seat in the continental family counseling session.

Trump responded by telling Bombardier it cannot sell planes in the United States unless it builds them there. The White House version of free trade now resembles a nightclub bouncer: pay the cover charge, build the venue, praise the owner.

Ottawa says it is matching U.S. tariffs “dollar for dollar.” Washington calls that escalation from a country too small to fight back.

Both capitals have discovered that “integrated North American supply chains” means taxpayers and manufacturers get to finance the politicians’ public divorce.

The real hostages are the factories on both sides of the border. The men shouting “sovereignty” own microphones; the people moving parts across the Blue Water Bridge own deadlines.

#Tariffs #Canada #Trump #TradeWar

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The Moral Emergency Export License

Britain has put West Bank settlements in the sanctions basket. It will ban their goods from British shelves. It will prohibit ads for settlement property.

It will gain powers to target companies and individuals who finance, facilitate or profit from settlement expansion. The package explicitly covers E1. Britain has already sanctioned 38 people for settler-related activity.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband told Parliament that Britain could no longer merely “call out” injustice. It had to act. His government now calls Israel’s continuing occupation of Palestinian territory unlawful.

France and Canada moved with London. Nine other governments signed a declaration that they will impose, support or consider restrictions on settlement trade.

The communiqué leaves each capital enough room to call a ban a principle, a plan or an administrative mood.

Israel answered with diplomatic demolition work. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel would close Britain’s East Jerusalem consulate, stop joining a U.S.-led Gaza coordination mission and bar some British officials from entering the country.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the British ambassador’s expulsion.

Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, promised consequences for Britain. London says it is defending a two-state solution. Jerusalem is closing a consulate that works with Palestinians. Washington is threatening the country imposing the sanctions.

The bulldozers still have the easy job. They only need a road. Diplomats need a moral emergency, three allies and a press release.

#Israel #WestBank #UK #Settlements

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The Occupation Exchange Rate

Itamar Ben-Gvir has discovered the Falklands. In Spanish, he urged Israel to recognize them as “Argentine territory under occupation.” He called on Benjamin Netanyahu to sanction Britain until the “occupation” ends. Javier Milei reposted the message.

Milei also amplified Bezalel Smotrich’s call to expel the British ambassador. Then Buenos Aires filed a criminal complaint against Israeli energy company Navitas Petroleum, its partners and current or former executives.

Argentina says their British licenses to explore for hydrocarbons in the North Malvinas Basin violate Argentine law.

The timing is almost too efficient. Britain sanctions settlement goods. Israel’s ministers suddenly find the anti-occupation dictionary. Argentina gets a diplomatic signal and Israel gets a legal problem for an oil project.

The Falkland Islanders voted 99.8% in 2013 to remain a British Overseas Territory. Argentina calls the islands stolen. Britain calls the referendum self-determination.

Ben-Gvir calls for sanctions. The minister who treats every Palestinian flag as a security threat has become a South Atlantic decolonization consultant.

Trump, meanwhile, would not say whether the United States would aid Britain in a future Falklands conflict. He reminded British television that the UK “was not there to help me” in Iran. The special relationship now comes with a loyalty test and an offshore drilling clause.

When London sanctions Israel, “occupation” becomes a dangerous slur. When Israel needs Milei, it becomes a Spanish-language export.

#Israel #Argentina #Falklands #Malvinas

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The Oil-Price Air Defense System

The Houthis hit southern Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones overnight. Their targets included King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, Aramco facilities, and civilian infrastructure in Abha, Jazan and Najran. Saudi authorities said 73 people were injured, including women and children.

Fires broke out at several energy sites. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said some operations were temporarily halted. The Houthis claimed they used dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. They described the operation as “siege for siege.”

Saudi officials call it a dangerous escalation. The Houthis call it a precise strike. Both statements arrive while crews put out fires at the facilities that pay for Saudi power and stabilize much of the global oil market.

The Houthis did not have to seize Riyadh. They only had to set parts of the oil infrastructure on fire. That is the regional missile doctrine now: skip the capital, hit the invoice.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan says diplomacy is still possible. Riyadh also says it will take every measure to defend itself. Diplomacy remains open because Brent is approaching $100 a barrel. When oil burns, everyone suddenly discovers the value of dialogue.

#SaudiArabia #Houthis #Aramco #Oil

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The Abu Dhabi Alarm Clock

According to a Haaretz investigation, Mohammed bin Zayed called Benjamin Netanyahu about 10 days before Oct. 7, 2023. The UAE president allegedly warned that Yahya Sinwar was planning a major operation. He reportedly warned of bloodshed, regional turmoil and damage to the Abraham Accords. The call lasted 45 minutes.

According to the report, Netanyahu answered calmly. He reportedly said Hamas was likely focused on the West Bank. He said Israel was ready for any scenario. The warning allegedly never reached the heads of the Shin Bet, Mossad or IDF.

The Prime Minister’s Office calls the story “an absolute lie.” It says Netanyahu did not speak with the UAE president during that period. It says he received no warning. Abu Dhabi has declined to issue the formal denial Israel requested. It says it does not comment on reported private conversations.

The political response came packaged as a national inquiry waiting to happen. Naftali Bennett said the report was true. Gadi Eisenkot asked: “Who didn’t wake whom?” Opposition leaders demanded a state commission of inquiry. Ben-Gvir found the culprit elsewhere. He called the report an excuse from security officials for failing to wake Netanyahu on Oct. 7.

Israel built a security system with satellites, wiretaps and a full cabinet. Then, according to the report, the most urgent warning came through the Gulf’s version of customer service: the president called the prime minister himself.

The question is no longer who woke Netanyahu that morning. It is who heard the phone ringing ten days earlier.

#October7 #Netanyahu #UAE #Israel

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The Likud Casting Call

Likud’s secretariat approved Benjamin Netanyahu’s reserved places for the 26th Knesset. The list includes Talik Gvili, whose son Ran Gvili was killed on Oct. 7 and whose body was taken to Gaza. It includes Elisha Medan, a reservist who lost both legs in Beit Hanoun. It also includes Jacob Bardugo, Netanyahu’s confidant and a Channel 14 commentator.

Medan was first reported for No. 11. He landed at No. 15. Bardugo received No. 11 instead. Bardugo has publicly said he wants the justice portfolio. Yariv Levin may soon learn that the loyalty market has more bidders than chairs.

No. 16 goes to attorney David Peter. He represented Netanyahu and the government in High Court cases. No. 26 goes to former Labor MK Eli Goldschmidt. Likud says Oct. 7 brought him a political “transformation.” No. 29 goes to bereaved father Itzik Bonzel.

Retired Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi was assigned No. 35. He later gave up the slot and is expected to serve as an outside minister.

Entrepreneur Oren Dobronsky also relinquished a Knesset seat while signaling interest in becoming artificial-intelligence minister. The party is no longer recruiting legislators. It is stocking a cabinet showroom.

The war wounded families. It buried soldiers. It also created a new political commodity: grief with a ballot number, a studio contract and cabinet potential. Channel 14 did not merely cover the campaign. Netanyahu turned part of its panel into a candidate list.

#Israel #Likud #Netanyahu #Elections

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Iran Claims It Seized U.S. Underwater Drone as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate
Iranian forces say they seized a U.S. unmanned underwater drone near the Strait of Hormuz, a claim the Pentagon disputed, saying the vessel had malfunctioned more than a day earlier and was no longer operational

U.S. Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, said the drone was conducting surveillance in regional waters when it malfunctioned.

He described the submersible as a defective, older model that carried neither classified sonar or radar systems nor sensitive intelligence-gathering equipment.

“Operations in area waters continue,” Hawkins said.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s elite military force, offered a dramatically different account.
Iranian state television reported Tuesday that IRGC naval forces had “captured one of the most modern, unmanned, and smart submarines” operated by the U.S. military near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran called the operation a “complex intelligence and operational action at dawn” and said images of the captured vessel would be released within hours.

The competing claims come as tensions around the strategic waterway continue to escalate. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments, making any disruption there a major threat to global energy markets.

Iran has maintained a blockade of the strait since the war erupted more than six months ago, while the United States has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports.

After a period of relative calm in August, fighting between Iran and the United States has intensified again, pushing global oil prices higher to levels last seen in July.

Trump has struggled to bring the increasingly unpopular war to an end. The conflict has already killed 18 U.S. service members.

Iranian authorities have reported thousands of deaths from U.S. and Israeli strikes. Outside observers, including U.S.-based monitoring groups, have broadly backed estimates that the death toll has reached into the thousands.

The latest confrontation over the underwater drone adds another volatile flashpoint to an already dangerous standoff — one unfolding in a waterway critical to the global economy.

#Iran #USA #StraitOfHormuz #UnderwaterDrone

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#Russia #Ukraine #MarcoRubio #Negotiations

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The Land Authority Coup

Benjamin Netanyahu has blocked Housing Minister Chaim Katz from firing Yehuda Eliyahu, the acting director of the Israel Land Authority. The Likud said Eliyahu is doing “important national work” in the Negev and Galilee. It added one useful detail: “he will not be fired.”

Eliyahu is not a land-registry technocrat who accidentally wandered into politics. He ran Regavim, the group linked to Bezalel Smotrich. He later headed the Settlement Administration in the Defense Ministry. That was Smotrich’s machine for moving civilian authority in the West Bank away from the army and toward his political office.

Now the same operating system is moving inside Israel’s recognized borders. Smotrich has promised to bring his “settlement revolution” to the Negev and Galilee. His plan calls for one million additional Jewish residents, 40 new communities and dozens of farms. He said the project may require “crushing people and procedures.”

The Israel Land Authority controls the allocation and management of most public land. Put Eliyahu in charge and the question is no longer where to build. It is who gets to define a demographic threat, issue the tender and call it a national mission.

Katz and Eliyahu may fight over management, appointments and staff complaints. Their ministers are fighting over the remote control. Shlomo Karhi calls Eliyahu “the right man in the right place.” Amichai Chikli says there will be no compromises in the Negev and Galilee.

They agree on the map. They are fighting over whose fingerprints go on it.

#Israel #Netanyahu #Smotrich #LandAuthority

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The $500 Million Miss

Iran fired ballistic missiles toward U.S.-used facilities in Jordan after U.S. forces struck five Iranian oil tankers.

Jordan’s military says 20 missiles entered its air-defense picture. It says 18 were intercepted. Two landed in empty areas. No casualties were reported.

The IRGC says its targets were U.S. forces at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base near Al-Azraq. It also claimed hits on two U.S. Navy destroyers.

U.S. Central Command says no American warship was struck. A U.S. official said every American service member in Jordan was accounted for and called the attack ineffective.

Iran’s version is a successful retaliation. Jordan’s version is 18 intercepts and two holes in the desert. Washington’s version is a failed strike. In a war of communiqués, the only fully confirmed casualty is the price of air defense.

Israeli estimates put the interceptor bill at between 60 and 100 Patriot missiles for the 20 incoming projectiles. At the cited unit prices, that would mean roughly $240 million to $500 million spent turning an Iranian salvo into scrap metal.

Iran says it is only beginning. It has also warned crews to leave tankers in Kuwait and Bahrain. The United States sank one tanker after striking five.

Every side is now protecting “freedom of navigation” by making the shipping lane sound like a firing range.

#Iran #Jordan #UnitedStates #Hormuz

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Six Polls, Six Israels

The candidate slates are closed. The ballots are now the same everywhere. Yet Likud ranges from 19 seats on Channel 13 to 31 on Channel 14. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar ranges from 22 to 25. One country has six polling universes and no agreed reality.

Five polls put Netanyahu’s bloc, including Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael, in the low 50s. Channel 13 gives it 53. Kan gives it 52. Walla gives it 51. Channel 12 gives it 52. The Maariv average is 53.6. None delivers the 61 seats needed to govern.

Channel 14 sees another planet. Its NEXT DATA survey gives Likud 31 seats and the right-wing bloc 64. It also puts Netanyahu ahead of Eisenkot as preferred prime minister, 51% to 34%. In that version of Israel, the coalition does not need a deal. It needs a victory speech and a larger teleprompter.

i24NEWS offers a third version. Likud leads with 27 seats. Yashar has 22. Netanyahu’s bloc reaches 56 without Winter. Eisenkot’s anti-Netanyahu bloc has 48. The Arab parties hold 12. A majority still requires somebody to sit with somebody they spent the campaign calling an existential threat.

Thirty-eight lists met the Sept. 8 deadline for the Oct. 27 election. The Central Elections Committee is due to finalize them on Sept. 27. No major merger went through. Winter runs separately. Bennett and Eisenkot run separately. Ben-Gvir runs separately. Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin run together. The merger reserve is gone.

That is the real polling result. Netanyahu cannot reach 61 in five surveys. Eisenkot needs Arab parties to reach it. Every leader is selling a government.

#IsraelElections #Netanyahu #Eisenkot #Knesset

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Scam State, Premium Tier

Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies have reached the Prosecutor General’s Office with Operation Carthage. NABU and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office say a criminal group protected fraudulent call centers and laundered their proceeds. Investigators detained Serhii Kropyva, a deputy head of the office’s international-cooperation department.

The alleged business model was elegant in the way organized crime likes elegance.

Call centers steal from Ukrainians and foreign victims. Prosecutors who should shut them down allegedly sell protection.

The state then offers international legal cooperation to the countries whose citizens were robbed.

NABU searched premises at the Prosecutor General’s Office. Ukrainian media reported searches connected to Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko, his deputy Mariia Vdovychenko and Odesa regional chief Oleh Kiper. The prosecutor’s office denied that Kravchenko’s office or home had been searched.

Kropyva was remanded in custody until Nov. 2. The High Anti-Corruption Court set bail at 120 million hryvnias, about $2.7 million. Investigators suspect him of laundering more than 89 million hryvnias. He has not admitted guilt.

Kravchenko denied any involvement in protecting call centers. On Sept. 7, he said he had no plans to resign. Later that day, he resigned after meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky. He called it a “deliberate political decision.”

The scam center is usually portrayed as a room full of cheap headsets and fake bank clerks. Operation Carthage alleges a more expensive setup: the hotline came with prosecutorial insurance.

Ukraine asks Europe to trust its courts, its investigators and its promises to defend the rule of law.

Europe’s pensioners and Israeli victims are asked to trust a different Ukrainian export: “Your call is important to us.”

#Ukraine #Corruption #NABU #ScamCenters

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The Regional IQ Contest

Turkey and Israel are building rival power projects across the Middle East. One country spent 2025 lifting its school scores. The other treated its own education system like a coalition agreement: postpone the problem, fight over the budget, blame the previous government.

Turkey scored 494 in science, 472 in reading and 462 in mathematics in PISA 2025. It beat the OECD average in science and reading. It effectively matched it in mathematics. Since 2022, Turkish results rose by 18 points in science, 16 in reading and nine in math. Turkey recorded the largest gains among OECD members in all three subjects.

Israel went in the opposite direction. Its students scored 442 in science, 433 in mathematics and 436 in reading. Since 2022, reading fell 38 points. Math fell 25. Science fell 23. Almost 29% of Israeli students failed to reach basic proficiency in all three fields at once. The OECD average is 19.7%.

This is not a story about an underperforming fringe. The sharpest declines appeared among Hebrew-speaking students in the state system. The alleged “core” of Start-Up Nation is now handing in an exam paper with the answers missing.

Turkey’s governing party speaks about national greatness and builds a larger pool of students who can read a technical manual. Israel’s governing coalition speaks about national greatness and fights over who appoints the next land official, media regulator and rabbi.

Wars are won by soldiers. Regional power is built by engineers, technicians, doctors and people who can calculate without a coalition whip.

Israel’s political class keeps selling strategic superiority. PISA just checked the inventory.

#Israel #Turkey #Education #PISA

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