Chronicles of Troubled Times: prologue to WWIII
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#finance 🇹🇷#Turkey
#Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Wednesday after a fire on a pipeline from Iraq to Turkey stopped flows, increasing concerns about an already tight supply outlook.
Futures for Brent crude rose 1.19% to $88.56 a barrel, WTI rose 1.28% to $86.52 a barrel.
Turkey's state-run pipeline operator Botas announced on Tuesday that it had cut off oil supplies from the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline following an explosion.

#Нефть подорожала до 7-летнего пика на фоне перебоев в работе трубопровода из Ирака в Турцию, вызвавших опасения по поводу нехватки поставок, а также геополитических проблем в России и ОАЭ.
Фьючерсы на нефть марки Brent выросли на 1,19% до $88,56 за баррель, марки WTI - подорожали на 1,28% до $86,52 за баррель.
Государственный оператор трубопроводов Турции Botas объявил во вторник, что после взрыва прекратил подачу нефти по трубопроводу Киркук-Джейхан.
#oil
🇮🇳🇨🇳❌🛢🇷🇺#Индия и #Китай сказали «хватит» российской нефти.
Поставки в Азию упали на 20% за месяц

Экспорт российской нефти в Китай по сравнению с началом июня рухнул на 25% — с 1,18 до 0,89 млн баррелей в сутки; в Индию — на 27%, с 840 до 610 тысяч баррелей в день.

🇮🇹❌🇷🇺Ситуацию для российских нефтяников осложняет то, что одновременно падает вывоз нефти в Средиземноморье, где после введения европейского эмбраго от российской нефти начала отказываться #Италия: закупая в начале июня 500 тысяч баррелей в сутки, Италия снизила импорт до 330 тысяч.

И тем не менее, за прошлую неделю на российских терминалах было загружено 30 танкеров
/Bloomberg/
Chronicles of Troubled Times: prologue to WWIII
⚡️🔥☢️🇮🇱 A large-scale fire is raging near the nuclear research center in Dimona (#Israel) The reasons are unknown, but Iranian hackers have repeatedly promised to attack an Israeli military facility ▪️For its part, Israel at the end of September categorically…
#oil_war
🔥🇺🇸🇮🇷 A huge fire is also burning in a large Chevron's Refinery in El Segundo, California, #US.
Netizens speculate it could be Iran's revenge after its oil tankers were targeted yesterday by US drone

https://youtu.be/I_qIwRCMwgY
https://youtu.be/I60ZIXHpTW0

🔥🇺🇸🇮🇷 Огромный пожар вспыхнул также на крупном нефтеперерабатывающем заводе Chevron в Эль-Сегундо, штат Калифорния, #США.
Пользователи в сети предполагают, что это может быть местью Ирана после вчерашней атаки иранских нефтяных танкеров американским беспилотником.
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Useful sanctions
🇷🇺🛢 Three large Russian oil refineries at once have stopped due to problems with the supply of imported equipment

Lukoil's Volgograd refinery, one of the top 10 largest in the Russian Federation, as well as the Ilsky and Yaya refineries, were unable to complete scheduled repairs in October.
The volume of idle oil refining capacity, according to Reuters, will be at least 1.8 million, while the total downtime of primary refining at Russian refineries for January-November 2024 has already reached 39 million tons.

▪️All three of the above-mentioned plants were built and modernized at one time with the participation of European and American companies such as UOP and ABB
Russia planned to restore the plants using supplies from China, but this turned out to be too expensive, since in this case it would have been necessary to completely replace the refinery equipment
.

▪️The problem is exacerbated by attacks by Ukrainian drones, due to which Russia lost about 15% of its oil refining capacity in early 2024
#oil

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Chronicles of Troubled Times: prologue to WWIII
Useful sanctions 🇷🇺🛢 Three large Russian oil refineries at once have stopped due to problems with the supply of imported equipment Lukoil's Volgograd refinery, one of the top 10 largest in the Russian Federation, as well as the Ilsky and Yaya refineries,…
#oil 🛢
🇨🇳 #China is cutting oil refining and is going to reduce its exports
According to Rystad Energy, oil refining in China will decrease from 15 million bpd in the third quarter to 14.7 million bpd.
According to Vortexa, refining will decrease by 5% by the end of the year.
📌The reduction in refining will lead to a decrease in crude oil imports.
According to Rystad forecasts, imports will amount to 10.66 million barrels per day in Q4 2024, and 10.64 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, compared to 11 million barrels per day in the first 9 months of 2024.

❗️In turn, India and Iran, on the contrary, are increasing oil production and increasing its refining.

🇮🇳 #India processes 250 million tons of black gold and is already in the process of increasing volumes to 300 million.
For the future, the potential of Indian processing up to 450 million tons is being discussed, said Indian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Shri Hardeep Singh Puri at the ADIPEC conference.
At the moment, India covers 40% of its needs with imports from Russia.

🇮🇷 #Iran urgently increases oil production by 250 thousand bpd
Iran currently produces 3.2 million bpd, accounting for 3% of global production.

🔗Source - Oil and Capital

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🔥🇷🇺🛢📉 Production at Russian refineries has fallen to a 12-year low (!) due to Ukrainian drone attacks, — The Moscow Times
▪️By the end of 2024, oil refining at Russian refineries is expected to be 266.9 million tons. This level is the lowest since 2012, when refineries processed 265.4 million tons of raw materials.
#Russia #oil

🔥🇷🇺🛢📉 Производство на российских НПЗ упало до минимума за 12 лет (!) из-за атак украинских дронов, — The Moscow Times
▪️По итогам 2024 года переработка нефти на НПЗ РФ ожидается в объеме 266,9 млн тонн. Этот уровень является наименьшим после 2012 года, когда НПЗ переработали 265,4 млн тонн сырья
#Россия #нефть

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⚡️⚡️🛢 📈 Gulf oil majors ramp up oil exports amid threat of disruptions — NYT
🇸🇦 As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, major Gulf oil producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, have sharply increased the loading of oil tankers. Experts see this as insurance against possible disruptions in the future.
Despite rising insurance premiums and shipping costs, oil exports have grown: Saudi Arabia increased shipments by 16% compared to May, while the UAE and Iraq increased by about 10%. Experts say the countries are preparing for possible disruptions in supplies due to the threat of conflict or blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

#Israel #Iran #oil

⚡️⚡️🛢 📈 Крупные нефтедобытчики Персидского залива наращивают экспорт нефти на фоне угрозы перебоев — NYT
🇸🇦 На фоне эскалации конфликта между Израилем и Ираном основные нефтедобывающие страны Персидского залива, включая Саудовскую Аравию, резко увеличили загрузку нефтяных танкеров. Эксперты расценивают это как страховку на случай возможных перебоев в будущем.
Несмотря на рост страховых премий и затрат на перевозку, экспорт нефти вырос: Саудовская Аравия увеличила поставки на 16% по сравнению с маем, а ОАЭ и Ирак — примерно на 10%. Эксперты отмечают, что страны готовятся к возможным перебоям в поставках из-за угрозы конфликта или блокировки пролива Ормуз.

#Израиль #Иран #нефть

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#US vs. #IRAN #War
Second phase of the war: neither oil nor water
ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE IN THE MIDDLE EAST · Part 1: #OIL

🇺🇸🇮🇱🔥🛢🇮🇷 Having fortunately refrained from a nuclear strike, Washington and Tel Aviv have moved to the second phase of the war, simultaneously attacking Iran's oil infrastructure and triggering an environmental catastrophe

FACTS:
➡️ Oil depots are burning across Tehran.
⏺Massive columns of smoke rise above fuel tanks at oil refineries, blanketing the skies over Iran's capital.

⏺Following a massive US and Israeli attack on an oil storage facility in Rey, south of Tehran, crude oil entered the sewage system and ignited fires in the streets.

⏺CNN reports black, oil-contaminated rain falling over Tehran following US and Israeli airstrikes.

⏺ Yesterday the White House declared it "wants" to "take oil out of the hands of terrorists" — and hours later bombed Iranian oil facilities, triggering an environmental catastrophe in the Tehran metro area, home to 14 million people.


🔴 The IDF confirmed the attacks and released initial results:
"The Israeli Air Force, under the guidance and in cooperation with Military Intelligence (Aman) and the Operations Directorate (Amatz), recently struck several fuel storage facilities in Tehran."

• Over 300 targets were hit over the weekend with approximately 1,500 munitions.

• Israeli Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar personally participated in bombing raids on Iran, flying an F-15 fighter jet.


🔴 US officials are discussing the possible seizure of Iran's oil terminal on Kharg Island — Axios

Collateral damage:
📈💵Average US gasoline prices rose to $3.45, the highest since September 2024.
But Trump, as usual, casually declared that oil prices would go down.

REASONS:
➡️#Israel understands and is in a hurry: the US-backed war may end within a week — the Pentagon is critically short of funds to continue the war at its initial pace.
• Just one week into the war, the US-Israeli coalition was forced to sharply reduce strikes on Iran: the daily volume of attacks dropped by 55–65%.

• According to a CENTCOM bulletin, US forces struck 1,250 targets in the first 48 hours and 1,700 targets in the first 72 hours.


OBJECTIVE:
➡️ The logic behind the oil carnage: closing the Strait of Hormuz poses catastrophic risks to Asia's entire energy security.
🇦🇪🇰🇼 #UAE and #Kuwait are cutting oil production due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — Bloomberg

Asia remains critically dependent on Middle Eastern oil and LNG transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest data shows that ~85–90% of crude oil and ~82–90% of LNG (from Qatar/UAE) flow to Asian countries:
🇨🇳 #China accounts for ~38% of oil volume
🇮🇳 #India ~15%
🇰🇷 #South_Korea ~12%.


🛢📈 WTI crude oil prices surged more than 35% this week — the largest weekly gain in 43 years.

BENEFICIARIES:
➡️ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 ❌🇨🇳 By engineering an environmental catastrophe in Iran, the US is pulling the chair out from under Beijing — while simultaneously handing Russia carte blanche in its war against Ukraine, now in its fifth year.
Russia is the second beneficiary after the US. Oil at $93+ (Murban), WTI +35%. Every dollar of oil price increase means billions into the Russian budget.

Russia was suffocating at $60+ (with $70 baked into the budget). At $90+ the Kremlin breathes freely. Washington understands this better than anyone — remember Trump's words: "At $40 a barrel, Russia can't afford to fight."

The oil price surge is not a side effect. It's part of the deal. The Anchorage agreement is bearing fruit.


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Chronicles of Troubled Times: prologue to WWIII
#US vs. #IRAN #War Second phase of the war: neither oil nor water ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE IN THE MIDDLE EAST · Part 1: #OIL 🇺🇸🇮🇱🔥🛢🇮🇷 Having fortunately refrained from a nuclear strike, Washington and Tel Aviv have moved to the second phase of the war, simultaneously…
#US vs. #IRAN #War
🔥Second phase of the war: neither oil nor water
ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE IN THE MIDDLE EAST : #OIL

UPD:
⚡️🇮🇷 Attacks on oil storage facilities in Iran are tantamount to chemical warfare against Iranians — Iranian Foreign Ministry.

⚡️🇮🇱 Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen:
"Iran's energy infrastructure will continue to be targeted: oil refineries and power generation stations are potential targets."


⚡️🇺🇸 Biden's Secretary of State Blinken:
Back during the Obama administration, the Israelis were pushing Obama to take military action against Iran and were warning that they would do it themselves if US didn’t.


⚡️The Shahran oil depot in western Tehran, targeted by airstrikes last night, is still burning — CNN

🤷U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright:
There are no plans to target Iran’s oil industry, their national gas industry, or anything about their energy industry.

If these are Israeli strikes, these are local fuel depots.

The U.S. is targeting zero energy infrastructure.


➡️ This statement is refuted by a video of B-1B strategic bombers taking off to strike Iran, which the Pentagon itself published.

💰Karoline Leavitt on gas prices:
This is a short-term disruption for the long-term gain...


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