The Mediator Joins the Fight

Tom Barrack has two jobs that now pull in opposite directions. He is Washington’s ambassador to Turkey and its envoy for Syria and Iraq. A mediator is supposed to keep both sides talking. Barrack chose a podcast and picked a side.

After Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria, Barrack said Israel may have been “trying to bait Turkey.” He also said the United States found no evidence that Turkey planned a military move at the site.

Israel says it warned the Syrian government and shared intelligence with authorized U.S. officials before approving the strike.

Defense Minister Israel Katz answered during Shabbat, an unusual move for a routine diplomatic quarrel. He called Barrack’s comments “full of inaccuracies” and said the envoy contradicted Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Barrack also insisted that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not seek an adversarial relationship with Israel. Ankara was simultaneously pursuing an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials on genocide allegations.

That does not make Israel’s intelligence correct. It does make Barrack’s sales pitch harder in Jerusalem.

A mediator may challenge Israeli claims. But he cannot publicly write Turkey’s defense brief, dismiss Israel’s threat assessment and then ask Israel to trust him with its border arrangements.

Washington gave Barrack a bridge job. He appears to have rented it to Ankara.

#Israel #Turkey #Syria #US

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Doomsday on Sea Trials

Russia’s Khabarovsk submarine has left Severodvinsk for factory trials in the White Sea. It is a 10,000-ton carrier designed to hold up to six Poseidon nuclear underwater vehicles. Moscow calls it a deterrent. The propaganda department calls it a British weather forecast.

Poseidon is meant to travel long distances under its own nuclear power and carry a thermonuclear warhead toward coastal targets.

Its reported range, depth and speed vary by source.
The claims about radioactive tsunamis are also part of Moscow’s fear-marketing package, not a verified operational result.

One important detail got lost under the apocalypse soundtrack. Khabarovsk is only in factory sea trials. That tests the submarine’s propulsion, steering, systems and hull. It does not prove that Poseidon has entered service, works as claimed or can evade every defense. A May assessment by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said Poseidon was not operationally deployed.

The Kremlin has built a weapon that can threaten ports and military bases. Britain and NATO still retain nuclear forces that can destroy Russia many times over. Nobody gets a clean victory. The real product is panic, sold before the hardware leaves the test range.

Moscow wants London to picture a radioactive wave. London should picture the invoice for a new arms race.

#Russia #Poseidon #NATO #NuclearWeapons

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Trump Faces the Toughest Challenge Since Returning to Office

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Trump’s presidency rests on the premise that he and the United States are so powerful that allies and enemies alike must submit to his will.

His break with decades of US foreign policy doctrine is laced through his speeches and national security strategies. It was best explained in January by top aide Stephen Miller, who told CNN’s Jake Tapper that “iron laws” dictate a real world that is “governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.”

But the philosophy faces its most serious tests in deepening showdowns with Iran and Canada.

Iran has defied the might of the US military for six months in a war Trump started but has been unable to end.

Canada’s Prime Minister Carney, who shut down trade talks with Washington, has meanwhile argued more forcefully than any other Western leader that the US under Trump “has changed.” He told his country Saturday that Trump was using “economic integration as a weapon.”

It is a commentary on the extreme disruption of the Trump era that Canada, one of America’s most loyal friends, has found itself in a similar state of economic warfare with the US as Iran, one of Washington’s worst foes.

Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an “economic onslaught” against Iran’s global financial connections, drawing an analogy with the D-Day invasion that turned the tide in World War II.

Trump, meanwhile warned on social media that “The U.S.A. will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada.” He added: “Someone should get these clowns to ‘fall in line.’”

The administration’s rhetoric Monday suggests that Trump is now sending the US economy to war.

Trump hopes to chalk up a lopsided trade deal with Canada and to finally bring about the downfall of Iran’s regime.

But the way forward is uncertain on both fronts because the president often backs down when the economic consequences of his attempts to assert his authority become clear.

Any prolonged US effort to prevail over Canada and Iran — and third-party nations sanctioned in his bid to shut down Tehran’s financial networks — could trigger retaliation that causes energy and food price hikes for US consumers. It could also rattle US markets at a time when some investors fear a bond crisis.

If Monday’s threats are the precursor to more TACOs (“Trump always chickens out”), the president will undermine his own power and the nation’s, and slip closer to lame-duck status as difficult midterm elections loom in November.

Bessent’s announcement was the latest US effort to find a new way out of the war with Iran.

But the D-Day analogy seemed tonally off, given the terrible sacrifices made by American soldiers to liberate Europe. And unlike Bessent, allied commander Gen. Dwight Eisenhower didn’t spent days in 1944 previewing a massive attack only to follow through with new threats of sanctions and no timeline.

Still, administration skeptics often ignore the genuine power that Trump could wield by clever use of economic warfare.

#trump #challenge #canada #carney

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A truly global effort to cut off Iran’s pathways to finance and trade could inflict extreme damage on an already devastated economy.

“It can work if we can get the buy-in of our partners,” Max Meizlish, a former senior Treasury official, said on CNN News Central Monday, specifically referring to Bank Melli, an Iranian commercial bank controlled by the government that operates in France, Germany and elsewhere and is a cog in Iran’s efforts to evade sanctions.

Kenneth Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist who is now a Harvard University chair, told CNN’s Richard Quest: “Fundamentally, sanctions work if you can get most of the world behind you. But if they’re not, it’s very hard.”

And the White House may be misreading its capacity to influence events inside Tehran. Signs of disagreement between pragmatists and hardliners over the economy are encouraging. But Washington has for decades over-read such tea leaves and assumed regime collapse would follow.

Most damagingly, the Trump administration is sending signals that it may not be serious about its own policy.

There was no immediate action against an array of Chinese banks that facilitate Beijing’s trade in cut-price Iranian oil. China has already said it will defend its interests — code for potential retaliatory reaction against the US that could further raise prices and anger US voters.

It showed last year in threatening to curtail rare earth mineral exports critical to the US defense and tech industries that it can counter Trump’s power.

And the US leader also has a big date circled on his calendar — the state visit of Xi Jinping next month. It’s hard to see him souring the atmosphere before then.

In a revealing moment, Bessent only reinforced doubts about the administration’s staying power. He was asked why he was not immediately imposing secondary sanctions on entities that deal with Iran.

“Well, we are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior; why would I want to blow up the global financial system?” he replied.

The administration is less wary of sanctioning the manufacturers of Canadian hockey sticks than Chinese banks.

“We have to remember, Canada is a state. Sorry, Freudian slip. That was actually an accident,” Vance said Monday.

But Canadians believe they are embroiled in more than a trade dispute.

Drew Dilkens, the mayor of Windsor, Ontario, just across from Detroit, explained the damage inflicted by Trump’s 51st-state claims.

“When you say it the first time, perhaps you can laugh it off, but it was the doubling down and certainly continuing to reinforce that,” he told CNN’s Brianna Keilar.

Ottawa said that, among other disputes, Carney ended trade talks after the US sought to water down its constitutional guarantees of bilingualism. Printing packaging for products sold in Canada in French as well as English is an inconvenience for US firms. But it’s a validation of the cultural and linguistic diversity that keeps Canada whole.

Carney also implied Washington sought to restrict trade deals that his government could make with third countries.

As the smaller economy, Canada would suffer the most harm in a trade war with the US. But it can challenge American power. A long tariff duel could result in the mutually assured destruction of the auto industry on both sides of the border.

#trump #challenge #canada #carney

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Manzikert, Inc.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan marked the 955th anniversary of Manzikert by turning medieval conquest into a regional business plan. He said the road to Manzikert began in Ahlat, and that the “conquest of Jerusalem and Istanbul” grew from the faith forged there.

Then came the corporate disclosure. “If everyone has a calculation, we also have a calculation and a plan,” Erdoğan said. “Allah … also has a plan, and that plan will ultimately prevail.” He promised defeat for “blood merchants” and “genocidaires.”

Hours later, Erdoğan said Turkey has “no hidden agenda” in the region. Its only goals, he said, are peace, justice, stability and security. Ankara also insists no outside power can draw the limits of Turkish foreign policy.

Those statements can coexist. Every expansion project needs a peace department. The Ottoman revival pitch comes with a nonrefundable stability guarantee.

The timing matters because Israel says Turkey planned activity at Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase. Israel says the site matters for flight routes near Idlib. Turkey denies hidden motives. Erdoğan says Turkey has a plan. The only question is whether the plan comes with a map.

One foot in Syria. A place at the Gaza table. A sermon about Jerusalem. But no agenda. Just peace, dressed for a 1071 anniversary.

The claim that U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack was recalled to Washington comes from Laura Loomer and remains unconfirmed. The State Department has made no public announcement.

#Turkey #Erdogan #Syria #Israel

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Himalaya’s Broken Dam

A wall of mud, water, ice and rock tore through the Nepal-Tibet border valley on Wednesday. Nepali authorities reported 157 dead. China reported three deaths in Tibet. Hundreds were still missing, and the toll will change as rescue crews reach wrecked settlements.

Scientists believe a vast slab of ice broke from a glacier about 17,000 feet above sea level and crashed into the valley below. One early estimate put the impact near the force of a magnitude 5.2 earthquake. The Himalayas did not send a warning. They sent the mountain.

Nepal’s tourism board listed 384 missing travelers. Of those, 291 are foreign nationals. The list includes at least 105 Indians, as well as people from the United States, Britain, Australia, Malaysia, the Netherlands and South Africa. Officials say the names and safety status are still being verified.

The flood smashed bridges, roads, schools and hydropower projects along the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli river corridors. Nepal’s Army has deployed 12 helicopters, evacuated at least 114 people and transferred 25 seriously injured survivors to Kathmandu.

Tourism sells the Himalayas as a cathedral of ice. The glacier just reminded everyone that cathedrals collapse too.

#Nepal #Tibet #Himalayas #Climate

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The Kid Rock Chain of Command

Two AH-64 Apache helicopters flew low over Kid Rock’s Tennessee estate on March 28. One aircraft also circled a No Kings protest in nearby Clarksville at an altitude that flight-tracking data put as low as 625 feet.

The Army grounded the crews and opened an administrative review. That is what armies do when expensive aircraft appear to audition for a musician’s social-media feed.

Gen. Randy George, then Army chief of staff, wanted the review to establish whether safety rules had been broken. Gen. Chris LaNeve, the Army’s No.

2 officer, reportedly told George that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wanted the inquiry stopped. Three people familiar with the matter told The Washington Post that George found the encounter troubling.

Hegseth ended the investigation on March 31. He lifted the pilots’ suspension and announced: “No punishment. No investigation. Carry on, Patriots.”

Four days later, on April 2, he removed George without a public explanation. The Pentagon denies any improper motive and calls LaNeve the kind of leader the Army needs.

LaNeve replaced George as acting chief. He is now Hegseth’s preferred candidate for the permanent job, although the administration has not sent his nomination to the Senate. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst reportedly opposes him. Other Republicans have also raised concerns over his short time as a four-star general.

The story does not prove that George lost his job because he tried to investigate Kid Rock’s flyby. Several officials have said other disputes also shaped his removal. But the sequence is plain enough for any private at Fort Campbell: inspect the aircraft, ignore the VIP, lose the command.

The Pentagon calls this a “back-to-basics” Army. The new basic is simple. Safety rules apply until a celebrity posts the video.

#Hegseth #USArmy #Trump #KidRock

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The Hormuz Subscription Plan

Iran and Oman have agreed on a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial vessels may pass. Military vessels may not. Tehran says the deal runs for 30 to 60 days while it negotiates a permanent arrangement with Muscat.

Iranian officials insist this is not a reopening of the strait. Inbound ships would travel through Iranian waters. Part of the outbound route would also fall under Iranian control. Tehran would close the southern passage once the new lane becomes active. The world’s energy artery is being rebranded as an Iranian toll road with a free trial.

Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, went to Tehran to help sell the interim deal. He met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Qatar says the proposal includes a joint Iranian-Omani corridor and a project to clear mines from the waterway.

But Tehran’s offer comes with terms. Iranian officials say Hormuz will not fully reopen until Washington lifts sanctions and unfreezes Iranian assets. In other words, the mine-clearance plan begins after the political ransom note is accepted.

Qatar is trying to lower the temperature. Iran is trying to keep its hand on the thermostat. The United States wants shipping restored without recognizing Tehran’s veto over global trade.

A temporary route may let tankers move. It does not remove the blockade. It turns the blockade into a negotiation room.

#Iran #Hormuz #Qatar #Oman

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The Fleet and the Receipts

Washington is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt and roughly 5,000 sailors to the Middle East for a deployment expected to last at least seven months. The USS Abraham Lincoln is headed to Thailand for a crew break after a long mission. The Navy calls this force management. Iran gets the more direct translation.

The Justice Department is also preparing to revive “prize courts,” maritime tribunals that have spent decades collecting dust. The plan would let federal prosecutors claim oil and cargo seized from Iranian or neutral vessels as U.S. property, then sell it and send the proceeds to the Treasury. The old war trophy system is getting a software update.

The White House says no negotiations with Iran are underway. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said “all options” remain open and the naval blockade will continue. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington prefers a deal that ends Iran’s nuclear weapons program and allows International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. The administration is offering diplomacy with no talks and inspections at sites hit by bombs.

Iran says the sanctions campaign is mostly psychological warfare because the toughest restrictions already exist. Tehran has one valid point. Sanctions alone rarely remove a regime. They usually turn smugglers, insurers, middlemen and security agencies into the country’s fastest-growing industry.

But Washington is adding a carrier, a blockade and a court built for captured ships. That is no longer sanctions policy. It is a menu for coercion.

The United States says it wants Iran back at the table. First, it is moving the table into a courtroom and putting the fleet outside.

#Iran #USNavy #Sanctions #Hormuz

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Missile Factory, Basement Edition

Iranian state television showed Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, the armed forces chief of staff, touring an underground missile facility on Aug. 22.

The footage included what appears to be an industrial planetary mixer, the kind of machine used to blend solid propellant for ballistic missiles. Tehran did not reveal the location. It did reveal the message.

Israel says its earlier strikes destroyed at least 12 such mixers in above-ground missile facilities. Iranian officials now claim missile production continued and weapons output has increased.

Neither side has released enough evidence to verify the scale of damage, the volume of current production or the condition of Iran’s underground network.

That uncertainty is the point. Israel can destroy a factory it can locate. Iran can move equipment underground, disperse lines and film the survivors. A planetary mixer does not prove a full production chain. It does show Tehran still has industrial capacity worth hiding, guarding and putting on camera.

Iranian media also claim the Revolutionary Guards recovered a mostly intact U.S.-made AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile after it failed to detonate. That claim remains unverified.

Analysts have reported possible JASSM wreckage and unexploded penetrator warheads, but there is no public evidence that Iran holds an intact missile or can reverse-engineer its guidance and low-observable systems.

The weapons show came with a political instruction. An Iranian Army spokesman said damaged systems had been rebuilt and declared a shift from a “defensive” to an “offensive” doctrine.

State media productions now function as part of that doctrine. The camera crew is manufacturing deterrence alongside the technicians.

Trump can promise that damaged infrastructure will take 15 years to rebuild. Tehran can claim it repaired everything yesterday. Both sides sell certainty because the real inventory is classified.

The underground factory is not proof that Iran is untouchable. It is proof that “obliterated” is a slogan, not a battle-damage assessment.

#Iran #Missiles #IRGC #JASSM

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The Sanctions Choir

Washington announced an “economic onslaught” against Iran. China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and France replied with the diplomatic version of earplugs.

China said its trade with Iran complies with international law and opposed unilateral U.S. sanctions lacking United Nations authorization. Qatar also called the measures unilateral while saying it remains in contact with both Washington and Tehran to revive negotiations. Beijing wants its oil flows protected. Doha wants the strait open long enough to keep everyone paid.

France and Saudi Arabia used gentler language, which is what countries do when their banks, oil markets and security arrangements are all in the room.

Emmanuel Macron and Mohammed bin Salman called for a negotiated settlement on Iran’s nuclear program. They urged Tehran to resume full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. They also demanded normal shipping in Hormuz, with no tolls or restrictions.

The Houthis provided the blunt translation. Deputy Foreign Minister Abdulwahid Abu Ras called the sanctions “psychological war” after the failure of the military option. He warned regional governments not to become U.S. “tools” against Iran.

Tehran’s allies say sanctions are useless theater. They also demand that the theater close immediately. China calls the sanctions illegal. Qatar calls them unilateral. Riyadh and Paris call for diplomacy. The Houthis call them a failed war.

Nobody is arguing that pressure does nothing. They are arguing over who gets to control it.

The U.S. sanctions Iran to force a deal. Iran’s friends oppose the sanctions to force a deal. Diplomacy has become a hostage exchange where every side claims to hold the key.

#Iran #Sanctions #China #Hormuz

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The Gulf Calls Its Own Number

Kuwait went to Islamabad and signed a new military cooperation pact with Pakistan. Saudi Arabia sent a senior security delegation to Baghdad for border-control and intelligence talks. The region is buying insurance before the next crisis sends the premium through the roof.

Kuwait’s defense minister, Sheikh Abdullah Ali Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, signed the agreement with Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif. It builds on a 2023 pact and covers training, capacity-building, border management, operational coordination and military readiness. Kuwait is not replacing the U.S. security umbrella. It is adding a backup generator.

In Baghdad, Saudi and Iraqi officials discussed tighter control of their shared border and more intelligence sharing.

Iraqi delegations had visited Riyadh earlier this month, while Saudi intelligence chief Khalid bin Ali Al-Humaidan met Iraq’s prime minister in Baghdad.

Iraq says it will not allow its territory to be used for attacks on other countries. That sentence becomes more valuable each time it is repeated.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf welcomed the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq as a “historic achievement” for Iraqis. Washington still has a military footprint in the country, but its partners are building side channels while Tehran celebrates the shrinking of the old order.

The Gulf once outsourced regional security to Washington. Now Kuwait is calling Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is calling Baghdad, Qatar is calling Tehran, and every capital is keeping a second phone.

Israel should read the directory carefully. These agreements do not form an anti-Israel alliance. They do show that the region is preparing for a future in which U.S. guarantees arrive late, with conditions attached.

#Gulf #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Iraq

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Make It Yourself

Iran’s free-market dollar crossed 200,000 tomans this week. One gram of 18-karat gold traded near 21.7 million tomans. By Aug. 25, the dollar had reached about 204,000 tomans, up 9.4% from 186,500 less than two weeks earlier.

When people buy dollars and gold at the same time, they are not investing in the government’s future. They are buying an escape hatch from the rial, inflation and whatever comes after the next official promise of stability.

A business owner in Shiraz described the household version of the crisis. Rent for his shop rose from 18 million to 32 million tomans. “We are tired,” he said. “This is the end of the story. I don’t think this can continue.” The government’s answer came from Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. He advised people to start making items they need “from homes and neighborhoods.”

Iran has missile plants, drones, regional militias and a state machine that talks about strategic autonomy. But its top security official is telling families to become a kitchen-table manufacturing sector.

This is self-sufficiency, Iranian style. The state handles the war. You handle the soap, spare parts and dinner.

#Iran #Economy #Rial #Sanctions

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Peace Council, War Terms

The Board of Peace has sent Hamas a warning through Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators. Stop every militant act, including kite launches, or face “serious consequences.” The U.S.-backed body wants the ceasefire intact long enough to begin Hamas’s disarmament.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty says Hamas and other Palestinian factions have agreed in principle to hand over all heavy and light weapons. The agreement was announced in Cairo, not Gaza. That is where most peace deals sound strongest.

The Board’s own official also delivered the other half of the message. Israel must comply with the ceasefire. Military action, he said, cannot go beyond a response to “genuine and imminent threats.” That is a hard rule to enforce in a war where every side calls its next strike preventive.

Nickolay Mladenov, the Board’s Gaza envoy, told the U.N. Security Council that every weapon Hamas keeps and every tunnel it operates gives Israel’s advocates for renewed war another argument. He also warned that continued Israeli strikes are killing civilians and pushing the ceasefire toward a “point of no return.”

Meanwhile, Uganda has agreed to contribute troops to the proposed international stabilization force. Burundi is considering a role after military officials from both countries visited Israel last week, according to the Associated Press.

The plan is to bring African troops to Gaza to oversee disarmament after three years of war and decades of failure by everyone already in the neighborhood.

Hamas promises weapons. Israel demands proof. The Board demands restraint. Uganda may send soldiers.

Peace has now entered the outsourcing phase.

#Gaza #Hamas #Israel #PeaceCouncil

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Trump’s Iran Victory Tour: One Problem — The Victory


Six months ago, Trump promised Iran a quick lesson in the consequences of challenging the United States. The bombs arrived. The missiles flew. Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure was hammered. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. The message from Washington was unmistakable: this would be decisive.

And then, rather inconveniently, Iran failed to read the script.

Six months later, Tehran is battered but still standing. Its economy is under extraordinary pressure, inflation is soaring, food prices have exploded, military infrastructure has been badly damaged — and yet Iran has not surrendered, signed the deal Trump wanted, or simply gone home.

Instead, the Strait of Hormuz has become Tehran’s favorite bargaining chip, turning a narrow stretch of water into one of the most consequential pieces of real estate in global politics. Nothing says “quick and easy victory” quite like a war in which everyone suddenly starts worrying about the price of oil.

Washington’s response? More sanctions.

When military pressure failed to produce the desired political outcome, the administration turned increasingly to economic coercion — the familiar instrument of a government discovering that destroying an adversary is considerably easier than persuading it to surrender.

The original promise was simple: overwhelming American power would force Iran to capitulate. The reality has proved considerably messier.

Iran has taken extraordinary punishment, but it has also demonstrated the classic survival skill of an embattled regime: refusing to cooperate with the enemy’s definition of victory.

Diplomacy has not exactly been a triumph either. The June ceasefire and subsequent negotiating effort failed to produce a lasting settlement.

Mediation efforts involving Oman, Pakistan and Qatar have gone nowhere. Washington and Tehran continue to disagree over sanctions, the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz and the fundamental terms of any agreement.

Trump now faces the strategic question that every president eventually encounters after starting a war: How do you get out?

It is a particularly awkward question for a president who built much of his political identity around ending America’s endless wars.

The irony is difficult to miss. Trump promised to use American strength to prevent another Middle Eastern quagmire. Six months later, the United States is trying to turn military devastation into political leverage, economic pressure into surrender, and a war that was supposed to be short into something resembling an exit strategy.

Iran has certainly paid an enormous price. There is no serious argument otherwise.

But Iran has not collapsed.

And Washington has not yet produced the clean political victory that all those missiles were supposed to buy.

So perhaps the most revealing measure is not how many Iranian targets were destroyed, but how many months later we are still asking the same question: When exactly does the victory begin?

Because at the moment, Trump has won the bombing campaign. Iran has won the irritating privilege of still being there.

Time and again, the Middle East has once again declined to follow the PowerPoint presentation.

#trump #iran #war #strait #hormuz

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Trump’s Oil Protectorate

The Trump administration is negotiating for a long-term U.S. stake in 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing about 90 billion barrels of crude. That is roughly one-third of Venezuela’s proven reserves and could more than double the oil reserves available to the United States.

The deal under discussion is not a clean market investment. Washington would secure ownership or long leases, possibly lasting up to 100 years, then invite U.S. companies to develop the fields. Venezuela would keep a share of revenue. The United States would get the risk, the contracts and the part where the flag goes on the map.

There is a small engineering issue. Several of the 17 fields lack pipelines, treatment plants or transport access. Others have been stripped by neglect and theft. Private firms would need billions of dollars, security forces and a lawyer with a high pain tolerance. Venezuela’s oil output has risen only about 200,000 barrels in the past year despite promises that Maduro’s removal would unleash a drilling boom.

Marco Rubio and Energy Secretary Chris Wright reportedly hope to announce a deal in Venezuela early next month. But the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez may lack the constitutional authority to hand over strategic assets. Banks see a contract. Venezuelans may see a century-long invoice from a country that arrived promising democracy.

Trump built his foreign policy around “America First.” Now America may become a minority shareholder in the world’s messiest oil company.

The White House says it wants energy security. Caracas gets a new supervisor. U.S. taxpayers get to find out whether 90 billion barrels can cover the cost of owning the headache.

#Trump #Venezuela #Oil #USA

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The Empire Runs Low

The United States is still the world’s biggest armed creditor. But its current war portfolio looks expensive, politically toxic and short on inventory.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow this week. He met Russian intelligence officials, not Vladimir Putin. Reports say he warned Moscow against any move against NATO’s Baltic members and pressed Russia to reduce support for Iran. The man running America’s spies went to the Kremlin to prevent another front from opening.

At the same time, Washington is trying to keep pressure on Iran. The Pentagon has told defense firms to accelerate output of critical weapons. Officials deny a shortage. The production orders say something else. A country with endless munitions does not demand emergency plans to make more.

The domestic math is worse. Trump’s approval rating stands at 33%. Just 31% of Americans support the Iran war.

Eighty-three percent expect it to drag on. Midterm elections are coming, and voters rarely reward a president for discovering that “short war” was a marketing term.

Meanwhile, China protects its Iran trade, Qatar brokers Hormuz, Saudi Arabia and France demand diplomacy, and Turkey sells its own regional map.

This is not a disciplined anti-American bloc. It is more dangerous for Washington. It is a room full of states that want America’s money and security but refuse to buy its war.

Israel sits inside that room with fewer exits. It needs U.S. interceptors, intelligence and political cover. Yet Washington now has to ration weapons, calm Iran, keep Russia from testing NATO and win an election.

The old U.S. formula was simple. Send the carrier. Everyone adjusts.

Now the carrier sails, the CIA flies to Moscow, Qatar flies to Tehran, and the White House checks the polls.

#USA #CIA #Iran #Russia

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NATO’s Red-Line Customer Service

Washington arms Ukraine against Russia, then sends the CIA director to Moscow to warn Russia against touching NATO. The message is familiar. Russia may absorb the escalation. NATO must remain outside the invoice.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Russian intelligence officials. He reportedly warned them against any attack on NATO territory, especially in the Baltic region, and urged Moscow to cut military and economic ties with Iran. The Kremlin said Ratcliffe did not meet Vladimir Putin and rejected Western claims of Russian plans to attack NATO.

Moscow answered with its own warning. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia could strike British military sites and equipment inside Ukraine and beyond if Ukraine uses British long-range missiles against Russian territory.

Britain has agreed to transfer classified technology that would allow Ukraine to manufacture Storm Shadow cruise missiles. France has also been accused by Moscow of helping Kyiv build long-range strike capacity.

Britain and other NATO members arm Ukraine because they see Russian expansion as a direct threat to European security. But weapons transfers also make the line between “supporter” and “participant” politically useful for Moscow and dangerously elastic for everyone else.

That is the trap. Washington says NATO must not become a party to the war. It is simultaneously expanding Ukraine’s capacity to strike deep inside Russia with NATO-origin technology.

On Thursday, a Russian serviceman was killed and his wife injured when a car bomb exploded outside St. Petersburg. Russian authorities said an explosive device had been planted in the vehicle. No public attribution has been made.

The CIA came to Moscow to draw a red line. Russia replied that the red line already runs through British missiles, Ukrainian factories and a burning car outside St. Petersburg.

In this war, every capital calls its own weapons “defense.” The other side’s weapons are the opening shot of World War III.

#Russia #Ukraine #NATO #CIA

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Trump’s China Dividend

Donald Trump has done what China’s diplomats spent years failing to do. He made Beijing look like the calmer option.

A Pew survey found China viewed more favorably than the United States in 25 of 36 countries surveyed. Xi Jinping also outranked Trump on trust in Britain, Canada, France and Australia. Tariffs, territorial threats and America First insults gave Beijing the cheapest image campaign in modern history. [web:None]

But this is a dividend, not a marriage. China’s favorable ratings in France and Germany remain only in the low-to-mid 30s. Japan, South Korea, India and the Philippines still view the United States more favorably. They live close enough to China to read the fine print. [web:None]

India shows the real model. Trump punished New Delhi over Russian oil and restricted visas. Narendra Modi answered with smiles for Xi and Putin, then strengthened trade and defense ties with Europe, Japan, Australia and the Philippines. India is not joining China. It is building more exits.

Europe is doing the same. Emmanuel Macron attacks American “vassalization” and Chinese economic coercion in the same breath. France wants strategic autonomy, not a Chinese landlord.

The Gulf buys weapons from several suppliers. Canada fights U.S. tariffs while keeping its defense system tied to NATO. Everyone is hedging. Nobody is converting.

The U.S.-led order is no longer loved. China is still not trusted enough to replace it.

Trump gave Beijing a public-relations miracle. Xi still cannot turn it into a security alliance.

#China #Trump #USA #Geopolitics

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The Senate Campaign’s Costume Party

Mike Collins wants Georgia’s Senate seat. His campaign keeps producing a cast that looks less like a governing coalition than a deleted scene from the internet’s worst group chat.

Preston Parra, a former Collins intern and paid consultant, posted an image of himself in apparent Klan robes and a swastika made from the word “twink.”

He called it satire. He also told The Washington Post: “I do think that the white race contributes more to the world.” His firm received $7,700 from Collins’s leadership PAC in May 2025.

Parra is not the whole problem. A former Collins chief of staff faced an ethics review over alleged misuse of taxpayer-funded internships. Another former chief of staff joined a group chat with Nick Fuentes and Richard Spencer.

A former digital director hurled antisemitic insults at Rep. Mike Lawler in a bar. Collins’s son-in-law has also posted Nazi imagery online, according to CNN.

Collins says he condemns antisemitism and racism. His campaign says the staffers’ conduct was unauthorized or personal. That may be true in each case. But campaigns are judged by the people they hire, promote and keep near the microphone.

Georgia Republicans see the problem. “You lay down with dogs, you get up with fleas,” conservative activist Debbie Dooley told The Post. “Mike Collins has got a lot of fleas on him.”

Collins’s campaign calls the strategy “casual trolling.” Voters may call it a Senate race run by a content farm that forgot to install adult supervision.

The GOP wants to take a Democratic-held Senate seat. It may first need to stop confusing shock value with a staffing plan.

#USA #Georgia #Senate #Politics

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