Iran Joins the Campaign

Netanyahu says Iran wants him out of office. Tehran has become the foreign threat and the campaign endorsement, helpfully rolled into one.

“We have clear warnings from military intelligence and the Mossad that Iran and its proxies are considering ways to influence the elections,” the prime minister told The Jerusalem Post. He threatened a response with “force and might they can’t even imagine.”

The military’s reported assessment is narrower. Channel 13 quoted IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir as saying there was no current operational need to strike Iran before the vote. If a strike became necessary, he added, it would go ahead.

Former Trump administration officials told Jewish Insider that renewed fighting before the Israeli and American elections was unlikely unless an imminent threat or an actual attack forced action.

Netanyahu’s warning is about interference. Zamir’s is about war. The campaign runs them together.

The result is a personal proposition. Iran fears Netanyahu’s reelection, so voters should deliver it.

#IsraelElections #Iran #Netanyahu #SecurityPolitics

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Access Protected

Yonatan Urich wants his private messages kept out of public view. Netanyahu keeps the aide himself close.

Jerusalem Magistrate’s Court temporarily barred activist Itai Leshem from publishing Urich’s personal material if it was obtained through hacking. The order followed Urich’s NIS 1 million lawsuit. It does not settle how the correspondence was obtained.

The political question rests on a separate record. Channel 12, citing interrogation transcripts, reported that Urich admitted receiving hundreds of thousands of shekels for promoting Qatar’s image. He estimated that the work continued until “mid-to-late 2024,” well into the war.

“I didn’t see a conflict here,” he reportedly told investigators. “I don’t see it as a moral problem.” Prosecutors unsuccessfully sought to bar him from the Prime Minister’s Office. He still works closely with Netanyahu.

The injunction concerns what outsiders may publish. The unanswered question is whom the prime minister chooses to keep inside.

#Netanyahu #Qatargate #Urich #Accountability

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The Neighborhood Gets the Sentence

Two Palestinian gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers near Hebron. Netanyahu’s announced response extends to the neighborhood they came from.

The attack killed Staff Sgt. Ron Yonatan Roytman and Sgt. Yuval Shai Svilem and wounded three other soldiers. Israeli forces killed both attackers. Netanyahu ordered Hebron cordoned off and preparations for a full West Bank closure.

Then came the broader plan. “We will evacuate the residents, we will go house to house,” Netanyahu said, promising to destroy weapons and terrorist infrastructure. He cited the model used in the refugee camps of the northern West Bank, where operations displaced thousands of Palestinians.

Netanyahu also said Israel was preparing a wider operation, potentially the largest since 1967. The military is ready, he said, and the government will set the timing. It has not begun.

Defense Minister Israel Katz cast the attack as part of an Iranian and Muslim Brotherhood effort to influence the election. He has not shown that the attack was coordinated for that purpose.

The gunmen are dead. Their neighbors face evacuation. Four days before the vote, the government is offering security by emptying a neighborhood.

#Hebron #WestBank #Netanyahu #IsraelElections

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War, After the Checkout

Washington and Israel have drawn up another Iran strike package. The preferred launch window appears to open after American voters finish judging the price of gasoline.

ABC News reported that the two militaries have prepared joint strikes for the coming weeks. Two Israeli sources said action would almost certainly follow the Nov. 3 midterms, because Trump wants to avoid further disruption to oil markets before the vote. Authorization remains his decision.

Possible targets include petrochemical facilities and nuclear sites. Netanyahu favors renewed action, according to the sources. His government denies reports that Trump blocked an earlier Israeli operation.

Washington has ordered nonessential diplomatic staff and their families out of Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks. The State Department said the order covers Saudi Arabia only, not every Gulf mission.

Netanyahu wants military action. Trump wants to choose its timing without paying for it at the pump before the vote.

#Iran #Trump #Netanyahu #Midterms

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Maximum Pressure Reaches the Beach

Washington counts the oil Iran cannot sell. The Gulf is counting the oil washing ashore.

On Oct. 22, U.S. Central Command marked 100 days of its resumed naval blockade, saying it had prevented at least $25 billion in Iranian crude exports. “There have been no exports or imports to Iran by sea except for the humanitarian aid U.S. forces have allowed,” the command said.

Trump accuses Tehran of trying to raise oil prices before the American midterms. Iran says it will keep Hormuz closed until Washington meets its conditions.

Authorities closed all beaches and coastal areas in Umm Al Quwain on Oct. 23 after a tanker spill. A researcher at the Conflict and Environment Observatory, reviewing satellite imagery from Oct. 19 and 21, put the slick at about 160 square kilometers.

UAE officials have not named the tanker. Orbital Risk Intelligence identified it as the Gem No. 2, which shipping sources say was hit by an unidentified projectile off the UAE coast on Oct. 9. Windward’s drift model put Sharjah’s and Ajman’s desalination intakes in the slick’s path by Oct. 22 or 23 if the leak was not stopped.

#Iran #Hormuz #Oil #UAE

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#pete #hegseth #hearing #urgent

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The Superpower Will Disconnect You

Tehran’s next bid for world power could begin by cutting off the neighbors’ internet.

Iran has drawn up detailed plans to attack Gulf undersea communications cables if the United States and Israel strike again, two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters. One said Iran would also try to prevent repairs, prolonging the disruption.

“If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines ... from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones,” one official said.

Revolutionary Guards spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi promised a response “several times greater” to even a limited attack. He also insisted Iran’s enemies currently lack the capacity for effective military operations. Apparently, the incapable enemy still requires an expanding target list.

Washington’s regional security promise and Tehran’s deterrence doctrine now meet at the same cable. One side stations forces to protect the neighborhood. The other threatens to disconnect it if those forces attack.

The neighbors bought connectivity. The powers supplied the cancellation policy.

#BabylonBurning #Iran #IRGC #GulfSecurity

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Libya’s Extension Cord

Israel wants a power connection to Europe. Libya’s eastern parliament has just strengthened the hand of the country demanding the coordinates.

On Oct. 20, the chamber approved Turkey’s 2019 maritime deal with Tripoli after years of opposition. Ankara courted the Haftar camp with defense cooperation and investment prospects. Greece offered objections, a less attractive package.

The disputed maritime claims overlap the planned Crete–Cyprus cable route, the essential bridge for Israel’s future electricity link to Europe.

Turkey demands written notice of survey work. Greece insists that notification is not a request for permission.

“Here are the coordinates. That is all we are asking for,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Oct. 21.

Libya’s rival power brokers found common ground where Ankara found leverage. Athens now hopes to send a notice that Turkey can sell domestically as consent. Both governments could claim sovereignty while the survey ship gets back to work.

Israel’s planned connection to Europe comes with an extra adapter: Greek paperwork that Turkey can label a permit.

#BabylonBurning #Libya #Turkey #Israel #EnergyPolitics

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Lula Downloads Hope

At 80, Lula has his first cell phone. A first-round election setback persuaded Brazil’s president that the device he never wanted might help him keep the job.

Bloomberg reports that his campaign has traded formal institutional messaging for selfies, jokes and workout videos. Bolsonaro’s allies made big gains in both houses of Congress. Lula’s counteroffensive now includes proving he can work a front-facing camera.

“Hope is all I have left,” said Maria Elisa Assy, 35, wearing a Lula cap to vote near São Paulo’s Avenida Paulista on Sunday. She said the first-round results had shocked her.

With Bolsonaro’s allies heading into a stronger Congress, Lula’s campaign is offering shaken supporters reassurance through presidential content. The workout videos give them something to watch while they worry about the count.

The president has discovered the smartphone. His voters are waiting for the feature that turns selfies into votes.

#Brazil #Lula #BrazilElections

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Boarding at Your Own Risk

Riyadh’s airport is open again. The Houthis still promise to hit it. Passengers are advised to check their bookings.

Apparently the booking system is the one part of this war that still works.

An October 10 cruise missile strike killed at least 13 people and wounded more than 300 in a passenger terminal.

At least three other deadly attacks hit the airport this month. Now the doors are unlocked.

The Iran-backed Houthis call the airport a “military target” and say Saudi Arabia will bear responsibility for the consequences of reopening it.

A magnificent arrangement. They fire the missile, then assign liability to whoever lets the victims through the door.

Please keep your boarding pass handy for identification.

#SaudiArabia #Houthis #Riyadh

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The Retaliation Subscription

Washington and Tehran are preparing the next round. Each describes its package as a response to the other.

In private, Trump appears to favor renewed strikes. Central Command has expanded its target list to include Iranian energy infrastructure.

Trump has said he would hold off until after the Nov. 3 midterms.

Two Iranian officials told the Times that Tehran’s expanded targets include U.S. diplomats and personnel. They called Americans “fair game,” citing U.S. and Israeli killings of Iranian officials and their family members.

American intelligence says several plots are moving toward execution.

Both sides are manufacturing the next round’s justification in advance. Washington prepares to bomb Iran’s economy. Tehran prepares to target the people representing Washington. Each preparation gives the other another reason to act.

#BabylonBurning #Iran #Trump #MiddleEast

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The Drone Demo

The Houthis’ military media arm released footage of “Shawaz” drones striking a tank, an armored vehicle and pickups on Yemen’s Marib front. The camera supplies both the targeting feed and the promotional material.

A Yemeni recruit fighting for Russia in Ukraine offers the customer review from underneath: “We ask Allah to save us from the drones.” In an account published by [source], he describes their speed and sharp turns, then says he started smoking out of loneliness, anxiety, cold and fear.

Meanwhile, a seller in Houthi-controlled northern Yemen is offering a German World War II MG42 machine gun for 800,000 Yemeni rials, roughly $1,600, according to the same account.

Yemen’s war has room for Hitler’s old hardware and drones with live camera feeds. Russia’s army has room for a Yemeni recruit who gets to meet such drones from the receiving end.

The Houthis publish the impact footage. The recruit supplies the part that military promotional videos tend to leave out: what happens to a man while he waits for the next drone.

#Yemen #Houthis #DroneWarfare

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#BillClinton #HillaryClinton #Trump

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Trump Won the Border Battle — Now Immigration Is Becoming a Political Liability

For years, the U.S.-Mexico border was one of the Republican Party’s most powerful political weapons.

Under Trump, that advantage may be fading. The administration’s crackdown has sharply reduced illegal crossings, easing one of the biggest concerns that helped propel Trump back to the White House in 2024. In Starr County, Texas, a predominantly Latino community that broke with decades of Democratic voting to support Trump, frustration over border security helped reshape the political landscape.

But with migrant encounters falling dramatically, the issue that once energized voters is losing some of its force. Federal data show that encounters at the southern border dropped from more than 2.2 million in 2022 to 237,538 in fiscal year 2025, the lowest level since 1970.

For Republicans, that represents a major policy achievement. Politically, however, it creates an unexpected challenge: when the crisis appears to have subsided, voters may turn their attention elsewhere.

And immigration enforcement is generating its own backlash. Expanded operations by Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement have raised fears among residents, disrupted local labor markets and left some communities struggling to find workers.

Reports of construction workers being detained have heightened anxiety among families and employers alike. The shift is complicating the political calculations of voters who supported Trump because they wanted a more secure border but did not necessarily endorse sweeping deportations.

Some former Republican supporters now say the administration has gone too far, particularly when enforcement affects longtime residents, workers and neighbors. Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa acknowledges that the Biden administration failed to manage the border effectively.

But he argues that Trump’s aggressive response has overshot the mark, creating new problems even as crossings decline. The political stakes are significant ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Republicans can point to measurable progress on border security, but they may find it harder to turn that success into votes if immigration is no longer the dominant concern it once was. Meanwhile, the human and economic consequences of deportation policies could give Democrats a fresh line of attack.

Trump’s border crackdown may have changed the political debate. The question now is whether Republicans can claim victory without alienating the very voters who helped deliver it.

#Trump #Immigration #BorderSecurity #MidtermElections

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Democracy’s Warranty

Democrats brought Barack Obama back to Michigan nine days before the midterms. Trump’s Sunday rally advertised Nicki Minaj. The closing campaign push has a reunion-tour feel, with control of Congress riding on the turnout.

Trump has a legal contingency in Alaska. On Oct. 23, he said he directed the Justice Department to sue over a Senate ballot featuring Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher.

The department seeks to delay certification if the senator loses and his namesake receives enough votes to change the outcome, pending an investigation into voter confusion. Alaska’s Supreme Court has allowed the second Sullivan to run.

The filing calls this an effort

“to protect the integrity of the 2026 Senate election in Alaska.”

Voters can choose between two Sullivans. Under the administration’s proposed safeguard, whether that choice requires investigation depends on whether they elect the one Trump wants.

#Midterms #Trump #Alaska #ElectionLaw

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