Democrats Smell Blood as Republicans Fight to Save the House 🗳


The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is entering its final stretch with Democrats increasingly confident they can take back the chamber — and Republicans facing a far broader defensive fight than they expected. With Election Day approaching, the political map is shifting in Democrats’ favor.

According to the latest assessments from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, dozens of congressional races are now competitive, including several districts Republicans once considered safely theirs.The math is remarkably simple.

Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to secure a House majority. Republicans currently hold 219 seats, compared with 214 for Democrats, with two vacancies. That narrow margin leaves the GOP with very little room for error.

The political climate is adding to Republican anxiety. High consumer prices, frustration over the war in Iran and Trump’s weak approval ratings have created serious headwinds for candidates trying to defend their seats.

Even traditionally reliable Republican districts are beginning to look vulnerable.Among the races drawing particular attention is Colorado’s 5th District, where Republican Rep. Jeff Crank faces Democrat Jessica Killin, an Army veteran with a strong campaign operation.

In Florida, controversial Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is being challenged by Leela Gray, while María Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez in a district where immigration policy has become a central issue. Ohio is another major battleground. Longtime Republican Rep.

Mike Turner faces a tougher-than-usual contest, while Mike Carey is also fighting to protect his seat. In Wisconsin, Republican Bryan Steil is defending a district that has become increasingly competitive.Open seats are creating additional opportunities.

Republican retirements and decisions by lawmakers to seek other offices have left several districts without incumbents, weakening the party’s traditional advantage. Michigan and Arizona are among the states where Democrats see opportunities to make gains.

Redistricting, meanwhile, has produced an unpredictable political landscape. Republican efforts to redraw congressional boundaries in states including Texas, Florida and North Carolina have not necessarily delivered the safe seats party strategists expected.

In some districts, demographic changes and voter dissatisfaction are making the contests much closer. Pennsylvania could prove especially consequential. Republican incumbents Scott Perry and Brian Fitzpatrick are facing serious Democratic challenges.

Perry, a prominent Trump ally, is running against former television journalist Janelle Stelson. Fitzpatrick faces Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie in a suburban district that narrowly backed Kamala Harris in 2024. New York’s 17th District is another race to watch, with Republican Mike Lawler defending his seat against Democrat Cait Conley.

The district’s narrow support for Harris makes it a prime Democratic target. But the Democratic path is not without risks. Several of the party’s incumbents are defending districts Trump carried in 2024.

Ohio, New Mexico and Washington all feature contests that could test whether Democrats can hold voters who supported the president two years ago. The ideological divide within the Democratic Party also adds uncertainty.

For Republicans, the challenge is equally stark: defend vulnerable incumbents, keep conservative voters energized and persuade swing voters that the party deserves another term in control.

The final map gives Democrats a genuine opportunity to reclaim the House. But favorable ratings are not election results. Turnout, local campaigns and the ability of candidates to connect national frustrations with everyday concerns will determine whether the predicted political shift becomes reality.

#MidtermElections #USPolitics #Democrats #HouseOfRepresentatives

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The groom’s exemption

Some 230 Haredi men were due to enter noncombat service Sunday. Outside the induction base, protesters tried to stop them. Elsewhere, politicians demanded that military police release a draft evader because he had just married.

Dozens blocked roads outside Tel Hashomer. Police said they were intimidating recruits, while the army said none was prevented from entering. The confrontation exposed a divide the protest leaders prefer to obscure. Some Haredi men are joining, and others are trying to make that choice harder.

Military police arrested Yaari Lieberman on his way with his wife to a sheva brachot celebration, one of the traditional meals held during the week after a wedding. An earlier arrest attempt ended with his release after hundreds of protesters surrounded his building. This time he received 20 days in military detention.

United Torah Judaism lawmaker Meir Porush called the arrest “criminal conduct” that should shock every Jew. Shas asked fellow lawmakers to demand Lieberman’s release so he could resume celebrating.

The legal basis for blanket yeshiva exemptions ended with the Supreme Court’s 2024 ruling. Political leaders have yet to secure a replacement. For now, they are proposing a more personal exception, in which enforcement waits until the wedding festivities are over.

#Israel #HarediDraft #MilitaryService

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Your vote, our workaround

Trump is campaigning to keep Congress Republican. His aides have spent months preparing to govern around it if voters choose Democrats.

Since April, Stephen Miller, budget director Russell Vought and White House lawyers have been identifying executive actions on immigration, tariffs, housing and federal spending, Reuters reports.

Counsel Will Scharf’s team is examining what Trump can legally do alone, where he can stretch his authority and how to defend those decisions in court.

The proposals include tariffs on critical minerals and wind turbines, tighter visa rules and changes giving political appointees more control over federal grants.

Vought is also looking for money Congress has already appropriated, which would let priorities advance without another funding vote.

Democratic control would still matter. The House could investigate the administration. The Senate could block nominees. Courts could stop unlawful executive actions. Losing Congress would constrain Trump, even if it would not stop him from acting alone.
The preparations extend to oversight.

Lawyers have briefed officials on subpoenas and document requests, advised them to watch what they put in writing and sought a Justice Department opinion that could shield communications with private advisers.

The plan runs on two tracks. The White House would keep issuing decisions without Congress and prepare to withhold the conversations behind them. Voters may change who asks the questions. The White House is already working on which answers they get.

#Trump #Midterms #ExecutivePower #Congress

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#Rubio #Russia #Armsnuclear

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November’s discount: buy less

Israeli shoppers waited for November’s sales. Many may still leave without what they wanted.

A Histadrut Consumer Authority survey of 501 adults, conducted by Geocartography, found that 68% of respondents postponed purchases to catch November discounts. Yet 44% said their finances would let them buy only some of the products they wanted, or force them to skip shopping altogether.

The waiting extends beyond the checkout. Bank Hapoalim chief markets strategist Modi Shafrir says the election outcome reduces the likelihood of a Bank of Israel rate cut in late November, citing a weaker shekel, a higher risk premium and political uncertainty.

Tel Aviv Stock Exchange chief Itai Ben-Zeev says investors want certainty, consistent policy and a clear economic horizon. Households have a less elaborate requirement, enough money left to make a discounted purchase.

Among respondents planning to shop, 63% intended to spend no more than 1,000 shekels.

Retailers can advertise money saved on every purchase. The survey’s less marketable finding is how many people may save by buying less, or nothing at all.

#IsraelEconomy #CostOfLiving #NovemberSales

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A failure without a traitor

A secret traitor would give some in Israel a convenient explanation for Oct. 7. The country’s former military chief offers something harder to dismiss. The institutions failed at their jobs.

“October 7 was a failure that could have been prevented, but there was absolutely no internal betrayal,”

former IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told a Shurat HaDin conference in New York on Sunday.

A conspiracy capable of enabling the attack would require a broad network, he said, and after three years not one collaborator has been found.

Halevi described a mistaken assessment, shared by the military, the Shin Bet and the political leadership, that Hamas did not want war. Israel ranked Iran first, Hezbollah second and Hamas third. Hamas worked hard to reinforce that assessment. The deception succeeded across institutions responsible for detecting it.

Halevi also defended military pressure as necessary to bring hostages home, while acknowledging its lethal consequences.

“Our own bombs killed hostages. Of course, this was not intentional. We did not know they were there,”

he said.
He called for a full inquiry and recalled the photograph of Shiri Bibas, who was abducted with her two young sons and killed in Hamas captivity.

“We were not there in time to help and save her. That is the failure,”

he said.

Halevi commanded the army when that failure occurred. His account belongs before an inquiry, alongside the decisions of the political leadership. Hunting an imaginary traitor would be considerably easier than questioning the actual people in charge.

#October7 #Israel #Accountability

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The election survives the investigation

Likud declared the election stolen. The judge who ordered the investigation says the results reflect what voters chose and will stand.

Central Elections Committee chairman Noam Sohlberg appeared Sunday alongside Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara and Shin Bet chief David Zini.

They agreed that even if the foreign-interference suspicions are substantiated, they would not invalidate the electoral process or its overall outcome. The results will be published Wednesday and submitted to President Isaac Herzog unchanged.

Sohlberg authorized the inquiry after reviewing classified intelligence concerning suspected foreign funding intended to influence the election.

A joint Shin Bet, police and prosecution team will investigate. He also said most published reports about the inquiry were incorrect.

Sohlberg drew an explicit distinction. Suspicions require investigation, he said, while overturning election results requires solid evidence.

Arab citizens’ turnout, he said, was an exercise of democratic rights, not grounds for casting suspicion on their votes.

Netanyahu’s bloc finished with 53 seats, eight short of a majority. That parliamentary problem remains exactly where the voters left it.

The investigation can establish whether crimes occurred. It cannot supply the missing seats.

#IsraelElection #Likud #ShinBet

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Victory needs a scapegoat

Trump says the U.S. has already knocked out most of Iran’s military. He is also reportedly looking for someone to blame because the war has not ended.

“The only reason why I’m not finished with Iran is I want to be nice,” he told an Iowa rally Sunday. “I want to try and save all those lives if I can.” Then he added a qualification. “At some point we’re going to have to give them the hammer.”

Netanyahu wants that point to come immediately after Tuesday’s U.S. midterms, Axios reports, citing an Israeli and an American source. During their Saturday call, Trump argued for giving negotiations more time. The Israeli source called the conversation “tough,” and the American source called it “direct.” Trump publicly called it “very good.”

Privately, The Atlantic reports, Trump has been asking allies about Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine. Both advised him on the war and offered optimistic early assessments. Sources close to Trump told the magazine he is focusing blame on those who promised a short, decisive campaign. The White House says he retains confidence in both men.

No renewed strike order has been announced. For now, Trump is offering voters three explanations at once. Victory has been achieved, the war is unfinished because he is merciful, and the failure to finish may belong to his advisers.

He ordered the war. Responsibility is the part still looking for a commander.

#Trump #Iran #Netanyahu #Midterms

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Supreme Court Blocks Trump’s Bid to Set Aside California Ballots ⚖️🗳


The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected an emergency request from the Trump administration seeking to force California to set aside more than 20,000 mail-in ballots ahead of Tuesday’s crucial midterm elections. The decision marks another legal setback for the White House in its escalating effort to challenge voter eligibility and influence election procedures across the country.

In an unsigned order issued Monday, November 2, the justices declined to intervene in the dispute, leaving lower-court decisions against the administration in place. The court offered no explanation for its ruling, and none of the justices publicly dissented. The Justice Department had argued that California should temporarily separate ballots cast by voters whom federal officials suspected of being noncitizens.

According to the administration, the disputed ballots could no longer be identified once mixed with other votes, making it impossible to verify the eligibility of the individuals who cast them. Federal officials maintained that their database identified thousands of people who might not be U.S. citizens but were nevertheless registered to vote.

They sought judicial intervention before the ballots were counted, arguing that allowing the process to continue would make it impossible to correct potential violations. California officials strongly challenged the federal government's claims, questioning both the accuracy of the database and the legality of the proposed intervention. State authorities argued that the federal lists contained significant errors and could wrongly identify American citizens as ineligible voters.

Independent researchers also raised concerns about the reliability of the information. Their review found that approximately 9,000 names on the federal list did not appear on California's voter registration rolls. Other cases involved personal identifying details that matched individuals who were U.S. citizens.

Opponents of the administration's request warned that separating thousands of ballots based on questionable data could disenfranchise eligible voters and undermine confidence in the electoral process. They also argued that federal authorities were attempting to interfere with election procedures traditionally administered by state governments.

The Supreme Court's decision follows a series of defeats for the Trump administration in lower courts. Federal judges had previously rejected attempts to delay or block the counting of the disputed ballots, citing concerns over the legal basis for the government's demands and the potential harm to legitimate voters. The case has become part of a broader confrontation between the Justice Department and several states over voter registration, election administration and the federal government's authority to challenge voting procedures.

The administration has pursued similar legal challenges elsewhere, seeking access to voter records and questioning the eligibility of individuals identified through federal databases.

Critics argue that inaccurate allegations of widespread noncitizen voting risk creating confusion, intimidating election officials and discouraging eligible citizens from participating. With the midterm elections approaching, Monday's ruling leaves California's election authorities free to proceed without the ballot-segregation order sought by the White House.

#SupremeCourt #DonaldTrump #California #USMidterms

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Putin’s attendance victory🤪

Forty-eight African delegations came to Moscow. The Kremlin would like the guest list entered into evidence as the death certificate of Western dominance.

The Oct. 28–29 Russia-Africa summit drew 22 heads of state, according to the Kremlin. Putin called Russia and Africa “natural allies” in a world order “free from diktat and double standards,” grounded in international law and the U.N. Charter.

Moscow can cite Washington’s own words. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called the war in Ukraine “a proxy war between nuclear powers.” The Kremlin presents such remarks as proof that it is resisting Western dominance, a message that resonates in parts of Africa.

The turnout demonstrates that Western sanctions have not closed Moscow’s diplomatic doors. It does not make 48 African governments a Russian alliance.

Their interests include agricultural supplies, investment and security assistance. Russia wants markets, influence and partners among the continent’s 54 U.N. members.

Moscow does bring things few others can offer. Rosatom is the world’s largest exporter of nuclear power plants and the only foreign vendor now building one in Africa, at El Dabaa in Egypt. Russia is among the biggest suppliers of fertilizer, which has grown scarce as the U.S.-Iran war disrupts Gulf exports through Hormuz, and of grain and other food.

It can also point to a history the former colonial powers cannot claim. The Soviet Union held no colonies in Africa and backed many of the continent’s independence movements.

African leaders brought demands of their own. Kenya’s William Ruto called for permanent African representation on the Security Council, arguing that the international order must reflect today’s world rather than 1945.

Moscow secured a substantial audience and concrete offers to make. African governments secured access to another negotiating partner.

#Russia #Africa #Diplomacy #Multipolarity

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The Alliance Gets an Invoice

Abdul El-Sayed wants Washington to stop treating “ally” as a blank check.

Michigan’s Democratic Senate nominee told CBS’s 60 Minutes that U.S. policy promises Palestinians a state while arming people working to prevent one. He accused Israel of genocide in Gaza and called for a fundamental reassessment of the relationship. Israel denies the charge, and the International Court of Justice has not yet ruled on the merits of the genocide case.

His objection extends beyond Israel. He said American tax dollars should fund schools, roads and health care rather than weapons for Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan.

He framed his test for an alliance as a parable about a bear. If your companion insists on provoking the animal, El-Sayed argued, you should reconsider the friendship.

The metaphor leaves something out: Washington has its own decision-makers. President Trump took the United States to war with Iran, and whatever pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu applied does not erase presidential responsibility.

El-Sayed also blamed political spending for insulating the alliance from scrutiny, citing AIPAC’s effort to defeat him in the Democratic primary. That spending is part of his case, but it does not show that every supporter of Israel has been bought.

The questions he puts before voters are legitimate. What does America receive, what does it finance and where should support end? Calling a country an ally does not settle them, and neither does calling it a bad friend.

#Michigan #ElSayed #Israel #USForeignPolicy

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El-Sayed Takes the Lead in Michigan Senate Race, Cook Report Says 🏆

Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has emerged as the new favorite in Michigan’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, according to an updated assessment by the Cook Political Report. The shift signals growing momentum for Democrats in a contest that could play a significant role in determining control of the Senate.

Cook Political Report has moved the race from its previous “Toss-up” rating to “Lean Democrat,” indicating that El-Sayed now has an advantage over Republican candidate Mike Rogers. The revised outlook comes amid a changing political landscape and new signs of support consolidating behind the Democratic contender.

The assessment is particularly notable given the recent political developments surrounding Haley Stevens, who previously competed against El-Sayed in the Democratic primary but has since backed Rogers. Her decision was seen as an unexpected development that could complicate efforts to unite Democratic voters behind their nominee.However, recent polling suggests that El-Sayed has maintained a strong position.

A New York Times/Siena College survey reportedly showed him leading Rogers by 11 percentage points, reinforcing the view that the Democratic candidate has gained ground in the race. Jessica Taylor, a Cook Political Report analyst, pointed to the latest polling trends as evidence that Democratic voters are increasingly rallying around El-Sayed.

The shift in the rating reflects a broader reassessment of the candidates’ relative positions as the election approaches. Michigan is considered a strategically important battleground, and the Senate contest has attracted considerable attention from both parties. A Democratic victory could strengthen the party’s position in the upper chamber, while a Republican win would provide an important opportunity for the GOP to expand its influence in Washington.

Although the new rating gives El-Sayed an advantage, it does not guarantee victory. The final outcome will depend on turnout, voter preferences and the candidates’ ability to maintain momentum through the closing stages of the campaign. For Democrats, the updated forecast offers an encouraging sign in a race that had previously been considered too close to call.

#Michigan #AbdulElSayed #USSenate #Election2026

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The Strike That Wasn’t War

President Trump promised no strikes on Iran before the midterms. American forces struck Qeshm Island on election eve. His explanation: “Just a minor attack. It wasn’t war.”

U.S. officials said a fighter jet destroyed a surface-to-air missile launcher after the Revolutionary Guards fired at an American aircraft. They described the operation as self-defense and as part of a series of limited strikes, not a renewed major campaign.

Trump told the story differently. He said U.S. forces had watched for more than two months as an Iranian anti-aircraft installation was built, then destroyed it once it was finished. Long-term surveillance does not rule out an immediate defensive strike, but Trump described a target chosen patiently, while officials had stressed an urgent response.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington has been quietly conducting similar strikes for weeks, deliberately avoiding announcements that might signal escalation. On Monday, Trump said, “We haven’t been doing any fighting for months.”

Iran offered its own victory bulletin, claiming it had downed two American drones near Qeshm. The United States has not confirmed those losses.

The Iranian fire and the destroyed launcher are military events. Whether voters are supposed to call them fighting depends on which American official is speaking.

#Iran #Qeshm #Trump #Midterms

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Deterrence Gets a Travel Section

Iran’s state broadcaster has turned civilian gathering places in the UAE into a target brochure. According to MEMRI, a video pointed to venues where American military personnel allegedly spend off-duty time and presented them as potential attack sites.

Tehran’s newspapers have expanded the itinerary. Hamshahri, owned by the Tehran municipality, published a map of American military facilities across Europe. Kayhan, closely linked to the supreme leader’s office, threatened targets “in the heart of Europe.”

Senior military commander Ali Abdollahi supplied the official sales pitch: Iran does not seek war, but its doctrine has shifted from defense to “offensive initiative.” He also declared Iran a fourth global pole of power, citing what he called its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

A newspaper map is not a missile range, and claims of operational reach deep into Europe remain unverified. The threats have expanded. The advertised capabilities are another matter.

The regime insists it does not seek war while its broadcaster marks venues for potential attacks. Apparently, peace improves when every venue becomes a possible destination.

#Iran #UAE #Europe #Deterrence

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