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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ’‘ Massive Strike on #Ukraine's Infrastructure on 16 Dec 2022 - what is known by 12:00⚑️

The RF Armed Forces have launched another massive missile strike on targets across #Ukraine.

β–ͺ️ In Kiev, CHPP-5, CHPP-6 and Darnitskaya CHPP were hit again. The underground was stopped, electricity was partially lost and water supply stopped.

β–ͺ️ #Zaporozhye region was hit by at least 12 strikes, local authorities said. In occupied #Zaporozhye, electricity and water were partially lost.

The engine room of the #Dnipro HPP was hit.

β–ͺ️ In #Kharkov, ground transport and the metro have come to a complete halt. There are disruptions in mobile communications. Partially there is no light and water. 7 strikes have hit the regional centre and 3 in the region.

#Zalyutino 330kV substation and #Kharkov 330kV PS were most likely hit. The previous day, the RF struck at CHPP-5. However, CHPP-3, which supplies power to all industrial facilities, remained unharmed.

Judging by the reports of the strike in the #Chuguev district, the fire attack might have been on CHPP-2 Eskhar.

β–ͺ️ Light went out in #Poltava and the Poltava region. The #Kremenchuk 330kV PS is likely been hit again. The #Mirgorod 330kV PS is also suspected of being hit.

β–ͺ️ In #Dnipropetrovsk region, there were explosions in #Kamenskoye and the regional centre. #Prydniprovska TPP is likely been hit again - traffic on Yuzhny Bridge opposite the TPP is blocked. The Prometey 330kV PS in #Kamenskoye is suspected been hit.

Explosions also occurred in #Pavlograd (likely the 330kV Pavlograd PS). Boiler houses and water supply are suspended in the city.

In #KrivoyRog, locals reported an explosion. Water and light were lost in the city. We already wrote that the Krivoy Rog TPP was shut down 1 1/2 month ago. Therefore, it is likely that either the Kirovskaya 330kV or Yuzhnaya 330kV PS was hit. In terms of logic, the Kirovskaya 330kV PS is most likely been hit - it supplies the water supply system.

β–ͺ️ There was a blackout in the #Cherkasy region. This could have been caused by both, the Polanyi 330kV PS being hit and the entire 330kV line along the Dnipro River being de-energised.

β–ͺ️ In #Kirovograd region, the Ukrainka 330kV PS was most likely hit. Pumping stations are shut down and power is lost. Several railroad sections are de-energized.

But the fact that the entire oblast is switched off could indicate that the 330kV switchgear of the Southern Ukraine NPP is down.

β–ͺ️ There are strikes in #Nikolaev and the region. Locals report power outages.

β–ͺ️ There are explosions in the #Ternopil region. There is only one 330kV Ternopil PS in the entire region.

β–ͺ️ In #Vinnitsa, shocks were also recorded. The Vinnitsa 330kV PS may have been hit.

β–ͺ️ An infrastructure facility in the #Odessa region has been hit. Power is partially lost in the regional centre.

β–ͺ️ In #Zhytomyr region, the Lesnaya 330kV PS in Korosten is affected. The PS bypassed the #Chernobyl NPP switchyard and supplied power to #Kiev from the #Rivne and Khmelnytskyi NPPs.

β–ͺ️ In the #Volyn, #Lvov, #Rivne, #Sumy and #Kherson regions, emergency blackouts occurred.

This is a direct consequence of the strikes in other regions. The same #Sumy is dependent on #Kremenchuk and #Kiev. And due to strikes on the Lesnaya 330kV PS, the Rivne NPP reactors could have shut down.

🩸Although the missile strike cannot be called the most massive in recent months, the number of missiles fired and the geography of targets is still impressive.

This confirms the systematic nature of the firing.

A new story has emerged in the Ukrainian infofield. People in chat rooms convince each other that the power was cut off before the strikes in order to mislead the enemy. Some even write that PPs are stopped on purpose for the duration of the raid.

There is no practical sense to be gained from such measures. But the Ukrainians believe such fables and convinces one another that the strikes by the RF are ineffective.

And this is not the case!

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πŸ“‹πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ•― #Ukraine's Power Grid on the Verge of Complete CollapseπŸ“

Ukrainians have grown accustomed to rolling blackouts, but electricity in #Ukraine is clearly in short supply. The national power grid is approaching total collapse, which means that the country as a whole will be uninhabitable.

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ’‘ Massive Missile Strike by RF Armed Forces in #Ukraine - What's known by the End of the Day⚑️

πŸ’₯ #Ukraine's energy infrastructure was hit during the night, morning and afternoon of 10 February.

πŸ”Ή CHPP-5 in #Kharkov: the strike struck the western part of turbine hall 1, causing severe fire and damage to the building.
βž– One of the three turbines with a generator, presumably the most powerful (300 MW), was severely damaged.
βž– The underground was disrupted and emergency shutdowns of the city's consumers were required.

As #Kharkov is largely supplied by the Zmiyevskaya TPP, the situation was already stabilised by evening.

πŸ”Ή CHPP-5 in #Kiev: The largest generating station in #Kiev with installed capacity of 700MW was hit. The station has been attacked several times before, but the CHPP has not stopped its operation.

Today's strike, according to preliminary information, hit the engine room and caused power outages in the southern and western districts of #Kiev.

πŸ”Ή#KrivoyRog TPP: The blow hit the plant's turbine hall. At least one of the turbines with a 282MW generator was seriously damaged.
βž– The building was also severely damaged, the roof on two bays collapsed and process steam lines were damaged. The plant temporarily halted generation, affecting power supply to #Dnepropetrovsk region and Krivoy Rog.

The nature of the damage does not allow us to talk about a complete shutdown of the plant.

πŸ”Ή#Dnieper HPP: One of the missiles broke through the roof and caused a fire in the engine room of Dnepr HPP-1. The second one allegedly hit one of the 13.8/154kV generator transformers on the 154kV switchyard.

However, the damage can hardly be called severe - according to preliminary data, only one hydro unit was damaged.

πŸ”Ή#Burshtynskaya TPP: There is no photo and video material confirming the damage to the plant.

However, circumstantial evidence - a sharp increase in power flows from #Hungary and #Slovakia - suggests that the TPP has stopped generating electricity and has still not been able to start generating it.

πŸ”ΉPS Khmelnitsky 330: A 330/110 kV autotransformer was damaged and caught fire. Part of Khmelnitsky was left without power.

πŸ”ΉPS Usatovo 330: A fire was detected in the substation area. The cause could have been either missile strikes or overloading.

As a result of the fire, the flow of electricity from #Moldova and #Romania to #Ukraine through the substation has completely stopped, and a wave of emergency power cuts went through #Odessa.

πŸ”Ή Shepetovka 330: A fire was detected in the 330 kV switchgear of the substation, presumably on fire with a 330/110 kV autotransformer.

⁉️ There are reports that #Dniester HPP-1 was also hit today, but no confirmation could be found.

πŸ“Œ Today's strikes by the RF Armed Forces have severely damaged generation at thermal power plants.

Combined with previous strikes, there is a tendency to knock out not only substations but also generators themselves.

Even though it is impossible to shut down plants such as the Krivoy Rog thermal power station with a single missile, a methodical and systematic impact will inevitably bear fruit.

Repair of turbines and generators and their installation is a process that in peacetime can take several years. In today's realities, it becomes simply impossible.

Therefore, strikes must continue, methodically knocking out station after station.

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ’‘@Rybar on the Current State and Bottlenecks of #Ukraine's Power System⚑️

Despite ongoing strikes on UA's power generation facilities, power outage times are decreasing. Street lighting has even reappeared in some cities.

Does it appear that the Russian attacks are not effective? It's a bit more complicated than that.

πŸ”ΉPower System Reserves:

The root of the current situation is the decline of #Ukraine's economy. Its energy system was created to supply 50 mil people with many energy-intensive plants. In 30 years, many disappeared and population shrank by at least 20% from 1991 to 2021.

The result was a unused capacity: for example, at the largest NPP, #Zaporozhye, only 1 of the 6 units was operating when the SMO began. By the autumn of 2022, it had only become larger due to plant closures and reduced traffic and a reduced utility load due to runaway population.

β–ͺ️In Oct, the RF Forces began striking power distribution facilities and knocking out autotransformers (ATs), with emergency shutdown schedules appearing across the country due to the accumulation of damage. But these were temporary difficulties: most PSs have a load substantially less than the nominal load, allowing it to be transferred from the knocked-out AT to the remaining ones.

β–ͺ️It takes a huge amount of high-precision ammunition to destroy all the transformers. Therefore, the PPs themselves have already become the target of the RF Forces in winter:

βž–#Kharkov TPP-5, Burshtyn and Krivoy Rog TPP; damaged turbines with generators,
βž–#Pridneprovska TPP; boilers damaged
βž–#Kiev TPP-6 - transformer of the power unit damaged
βž–#Dnieper HPP - the turbine hall was damaged
βž–#Ladyzhinskaya TPP - belt conveyor and gas pipelines damaged.

But the facilities did not sustain any critical damage. The reason was the same overcapacity: for example, at Krivoy Rog TPP only 2 out of 10 turbine generators - #1 and #2 worked. Turbine #5 was scheduled to be put into operation in spring, but it was struck on 10 Feb.

πŸ”ΉMeasures by UA Energy Companies:

The authorities were forced to draw on reserves: the Energy Ministry reported that in Feb all 9 units at the 3 remaining NPPs were operational. Each generates 1,000 MW, and the reserves mitigated consumption constraints.

Starting up the units required a considerable amount of time, so the process could only be completed by 2023. There were no other options: due to the loss of Donetsk anthracite, there was a coal shortage, so the mass reactivation of TPP turbines made no sense.

It would seem that the abrupt cessation of emergency shutdowns indicates that the crisis in UA's energy system has been overcome. Except that everything seems to be happening exactly the opposite.

πŸ”ΉWhat is the Vulnerability of UA's Energy System?

The NPPs always operate in the mode of constant power generation, and the commissioning of new units substantially increases the base level of generation. It is imperative to increase consumption to ensure full utilisation of the generators.

That is why the emergence of outdoor lighting in cities is not a sign of power system stability, but a forced measure to maintain its stability. To maintain frequency during peak loads, capacity manoeuvring is necessary, which is currently the bottleneck in UA's energy sector.

πŸ”ΉWhat should be done?

On the one hand, it is possible to hit the general plant control points (GPU), which provide energy transit from NPPs to consumers. However, this requires a lot of ammunition.

A far more suitable option would be to knock out the turbine generators in the PPs, which provide the power maneuvering. Thus, when the electric locomotive traction is switched on, there will be nothing to compensate for consumption peaks: this will limit the use of trains and affect the logistics of the AFU. And morning and evening bursts of utility loads can even cause power unit shutdowns with cascading outages.

πŸ“Œ Systematic strikes on TPP turbine halls will deprive UA's power system stability. It must continue!

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ’‘ Impact on #Kremenchuk 330 kV Substation in #Poltava Region⚑️

On the night of 15-16 February, a massive strike by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukrainian infrastructure facilities hit a 330kV Kremenchuk power substation.

The extent of the damage is not yet known, but previously Russian troops had usually hit autotransformers when striking substations.

It is very likely that the same substation has πŸ‘‰ previously been hit on 16 December 2022.

Coordinates: 49.122854, 33.638509

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ’‘ The RF Armed Forces' Strike on CHPP-5 in #Kiev⚑️

One of the targets of overnight strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure was Kiev's CHPP-5. It had previously πŸ‘‰ been hit by fire, but the CHPP continued to operate.

Judging by footage of the fire, the engine room and boiler room, where key equipment for the facility's operation is located, were hit. There are nine boilers and four turbines at CHPP-5: the removal of even some of them would significantly reduce the facility's power generation.

Coordinates: 50.392923, 30.568867

Including attacks on other targets in #Kiev, at least a third of the population of the Ukrainian capital lost electricity.

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ’‘Russian Massive Missile Attack on #Ukraine; what is known at the End of the Day⚑️

πŸ’¬ For the past few weeks, Ukrenergo representatives have been assuring the public that the situation in the energy sector has stabilised and the consequences of the Russian strikes have been fully overcome. Today has shown that these statements are untrue.

πŸ’₯ Both large PPs and PSs across the country have been targeted.

πŸ”ΉCHPP-5 in Kiev: damage to several boilers triggered a massive fire that spread to the engine room. Even if some boilers and turbines survived, the facility is unlikely to be operational soon.

The strike caused power cuts across the city and disruptions to the water supply. By mid-afternoon, the power supply had been restored.

πŸ”ΉKharkov: Blows completely cut off power supply in the city. At least 15 explosions were recorded.

The most likely targets were:
βž– PS Losevo 330;
βž– CHPP-3;
βž– CHPP-5;
βž– Novoselka Traction PS;
βž– PS 188 Zhukovsky 110/6kV.

There is still no stable electricity supply in the city, no heating and water in some places. Electric transport does not run, there are difficulties with cellular communication and the work of the railways.

πŸ”ΉPS Zhytomyr 330: the extent of the damage is still unknown. By the end of 9 Mar, power supply in city and region had not been fully restored.

πŸ”ΉKrivoy Rog TPP and Yuzhnaya 330 PS: the extent of damage to the facilities is unknown, but indirectly we can judge serious damage, as significant delays of passenger trains were recorded in the west of Dnepropetrovsk region.

πŸ”ΉPS Ukrainka 330 in Kirovograd: the impact led to power outages and delays of passenger trains.

πŸ”ΉLadyzhyn TPP: indirect impact of the strike is confirmed by delays in movement of passenger trains on electrified railway lines.

πŸ”ΉOdessa Region: the strike is believed to have hit one of the remaining PSs: Novoodessa 330, Adzhalyk 330 or Tsentrolit 220.

Given the continued growth of electricity imports from Moldova, the Usatovo 330 substation, which is working for transit, was not affected.

In Odessa Oblast, there was no voltage in the railway contact network, and passenger trains were delayed for a long time. Power restrictions have been imposed in the city and repair work is underway.

πŸ”ΉIn Dnepropetrovsk Region, the following substations have been hit:

βž–PS Pavlograd 330: a 330/110kV autotransformer burned down.
βž–PS Ferrosplavnaya 330: damage unknown, but power supply to ZNPP stopped.

In the afternoon, power supply to Ferrosplavnaya PS was restored. In Dnepropetrovsk itself, even the exterior lights were switched on in the evening.

This suggests that the city is supplied with electricity from the SouthUkraine NPP, and it is likely to be through the 750kV lines via the Dneprovska 750 and Zaporozhye 750 PSs.

πŸ”ΉPS Lutsk North 330 in Volyn region: there were power outages as a result of the strike.

Also, strikes were recorded in Nikolayev, Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, Chmelnitsky, Ternopol, Poltava regions.

πŸ”»What is the Outcome?

As a result of the missile strikes, the situation with power supply in #Kharkov came close to critical: there is no own generation, power from the Zmiyevs TPP because of damaged PSs is impossible, power from NPPs in western Ukraine simply does not reach the city.

The impact of today's strikes on train traffic is also notable - for the first time, some passenger trains were delayed by 3-4 hours. This indicates both the severity of the power supply problems and the lack of back-up diesel locomotives.

But we have to be realistic - in most regions the situation will stabilise in the next few days.

πŸ“Œ To cause irreparable damage to the energy system of Ukraine, it is necessary to strike at the electrical equipment (block transformers) of base stations - NPPs and HPPs power stations, continuing to knock out still operating TPPs: primarily Zmievskaya, Tripolskaya and Burshtynskaya.

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