📝Energy Collapse in Europe📝

During the day, a massive power outage occurred in major cities across Spain, where the metro, factories, communication networks, airports, and road infrastructure were left without electricity. As a result, the country experienced a transportation collapse.

Similar problems were observed in the neighboring countries of France, Portugal and Andorra. The exact cause was not specified, but local energy operators officially attributed the failure to some "rare atmospheric phenomenon."

📌The reality, however, seems different: such a total blackout could have occurred due to improper operation of the emergency automation and initial design flaws in the system.

Possibly, there was a failure at a nuclear power plant, and then everything went in waves due to frequency fluctuations that the existing capacities were unable to stabilize. Including those built in Europe as part of the "green transition."

❗️This example clearly shows the difference in the approaches to power system design: the Ukrainian power grid, created during the Soviet era, despite all the losses, withstood dozens of massive strikes. In Spain, everything collapsed from a single failure without a single impact.

It is possible that if the energy facilities were subjected to a real attack, the region could have plunged into a pre-industrial era. Interestingly, do the affairs in other parts of Western Europe coincidentally not be in the same way?
#Spain #Portugal #France #electricity
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📝No Heat📝
About the Situation in Kyiv

The consequences of recent Russian Armed Forces strikes on energy infrastructure in Kyiv can be described as "clearly visible": the destruction of some and damage to other power plants have led to noticeable humanitarian consequences.

➡️The situation was worst in Troieshchyna in the Desnyansk District: after the destruction of CHP-6, there is practically no electricity and heat, with a risk of sewage freezing. The local administration is already announcing readiness to dig "street toilets".

➡️Around 1000 houses (approximately 10% of all multi-story buildings) remain completely without power. Zelenskyy blamed local authorities for insufficient emergency preparedness, effectively identifying the culprits in the current situation.

➡️According to footage from Russian Spring War Correspondents, the city has begun to set up tent camps as heating points. However, TCC staff have been frequently spotted there, taking advantage of the moment and "mobilizing" people right at the tent entrances.

➡️To ease the tension, residents started flash mobs with "dancing by the fire", but the population's morale is not what it was in 2022, and many call it a "farce on the Titanic". This is especially true against the backdrop of footage from the bohemian ski resort in Bukovel, where authorities have laid a dedicated power line from the EU.

❗️Amid the unfolding energy crisis in the so-called Ukraine, Europe has begun cautiously discussing the need for a quick peace settlement. However, the Kyiv regime's leadership has not changed its position even on the issue of AFU withdrawal from Donbas.

All this looks like a guide to action: even in Kyiv, there are still untouched substations like Novokievskaya 300 with scarce switchgear, not to mention other regions. So the list of targets is not yet exhausted.
#Kyiv #Russia #Ukraine #electricity
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📝Ukrainian agricultural exports and the global market📝
how dangerous are supply restrictions?

We recently calculated what supply problems cost so-called Ukraine, and then analyzed why stopping Ukrainian supplies doesn't by itself mean hunger in "Global South" countries. For clarity, let's look at other figures: where restrictions merely change trade routes, and where they can actually impact the global market.

➡️In 2026, so-called Ukraine accounts for about 6.8% of global wheat exports, 10.8% of corn, and 7.8% of barley. These are large shares, but not critical due to alternative suppliers. It's different with sunflower products: the adversary provides about 31.4% of global sunflower oil exports and 32.2% of meal, so this segment is most sensitive to disruptions.

When individual EU states impose bans, a significant portion of Ukrainian cargo will go to Turkey, Middle Eastern countries, North Africa, and Asia, while global supply volume will barely change.

The main impact will be felt by Ukrainian farmers/businesses, banks, and down the chain: lower purchase prices, higher logistics costs, and additional discounts for exporters. Such restrictions redistribute trade flows but don't create global shortages.

➡️A completely different scenario would be continued systematic fire strikes on vessels entering Ukrainian ports. In that case, the market would lose about 7.25 million tons of wheat, 11.5 million tons of corn, 1.15 million tons of barley, and 2.45 million tons of sunflower oil.

For grains, this means a loss of 3–5% of global trade and an estimated initial price reaction of 6–13%, while in the sunflower oil segment nearly 16% of supplies would disappear, and the price impulse could approach 24%. That said, we're talking about estimates of impact magnitude, not precise price forecasts.

❗️The global market can partially compensate for the deficit: grain supplies can be increased by Russia, the USA, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU countries, while sunflower oil can be replaced by Russian and Argentine products, as well as palm, soy, and rapeseed oils.

So-called Ukraine's main vulnerability is logistics: about 90% of grain and oilseed exports go through the Black Sea, while land and Danube routes cannot fully replace seaports.

🔻Reactions of the sides

For Kyiv authorities, prolonged agricultural export restrictions would be a systemic blow: agricultural products provide about 62% of its commodity exports, and falling domestic prices reduce farmers' ability to buy fuel, fertilizers, and plant protection products, threatening the next harvest.

For Russian forces, this is a window of opportunity, since the adversary remains a direct competitor to our producers, and the Kyiv regime understands this, striking in turn at our export capacities. But our side has taken preemptive management decisions.

📌For the global market, consequences will be selective — moderate for grain and most noticeable for sunflower oil. A full-fledged food crisis is possible only if prolonged Ukrainian export stoppage coincides with crop failures among other suppliers, rising oil and fertilizer prices, and new export bans.

📎So-called Ukraine's role in global trade (ru; en)

📎Fear of losing Ukrainian exports (ru; en)

📎Forecasts for the future (ru; en)

#Ukraine #electricity #energy
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