⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇷🧨 Tehran is being pushed towards War - Political Scientist Nikolay Sevostyanov on the Terrorist Attack in #Iran⚡️

🗓 On 3 January 2020, the Americans assassinated one of Iran's main symbols, Qasem Suleimani. On 3 January 2024, terrorists blew up a funeral procession dedicated to his memory. The death toll is now over 100.

🔹In all cultures, even criminal ones, killing in cemeteries is considered unacceptable and condemned. But in this case it is also a demonstrative challenge to Tehran: "We will kill your leaders and anyone who follows them. Even the dead."

🔹And the bombings come less than a day after a strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where the IDF killed a Hamas leader. For Israel and the United States, Hamas (like the Yemeni Houthis) is also #Iran, and the war in Gaza is perceived as an indirect clash with Tehran, similar to how in #Ukraine Russia is primarily at war not with Kiev but with #NATO.

🔹On the agenda are Tel Aviv's readiness for a full-scale invasion of #Lebanon and US-British plans to strike #Yemen. However, the West realises that even the elimination of Hezbollah (which is hardly possible) and the destruction of the Houthis (which is impossible in principle) do not solve their main problem. This problem is not the Iranian regime, but the Iranian state itself, which has turned into the main regional player in the Middle East.

🔹The project that Tehran is building is no longer just a Shiite project. Shiite groups remain an important instrument of Iranian policy, but there are also enough Sunnis among the supporters of the Islamic Republic. And their numbers are growing. From #Morocco to #Pakistan, Muslims are asking themselves: "How is it that the rich Sunni states lie down to the Zionists and the Americans, while the Rafidis [an insulting nickname for Shiites] fight them?".

🔹The main danger for the West is that #Iran has managed to create its own world, invulnerable to American pressure and international sanctions. This world is expanding, drawing more and more forces into its orbit, and time is working in Iran's favour. The Islamic Republic's military-industrial complex is a vivid example of this.

🔹That is why the West is trying hard to push Tehran to "retaliate", which will lead to a full-fledged war, believing that today Iran will not pull it out and will collapse under its own weight.

🔹It doesn't matter which particular group will claim responsibility. It will probably be the local "branch" of ISIS, which is banned in Russia. What is important is that in Iran itself this attack is perceived as a second assassination of Suleimani, organised by the same forces.

📌 The Iranian State may look as cruel as it likes, but it has no right to appear weak. This is too dangerous for both internal stability and the viability of the project itself. This means that Tehran will have to respond in any case. But this is exactly what the West is pushing him to do.

📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov specially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel; 3 Jan 2024, 17:15

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🇵🇰🏴 Protests in Pakistan as a Harbinger of Impending Chaos in the Country

In addition to the already mentioned words about the extremely dire terrorist situation in Pakistan, where a huge spike was recorded in 2024 and the authorities are unable to do anything about it, an ethno-confessional split has also been added.

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❓In late November, we wrote that in the same district of Kurram, which became the center of clashes with Afghanistan, a terrorist attack occurred. Then, as a result of the attack by unknown persons, dozens of Shiites, who are the majority in this district, were killed.

After that, a conflict broke out between Shiite and Sunni radicals, which led to the deaths of more than 100 people. The local authorities, in order to stabilize the situation, blocked the main highway Peshawar - Parachinar, which caused a collapse in the region.

❗️Over the past 2.5 months, more than 100 children have died in Parachinar due to the lack of medical care and food. And the situation has only worsened in recent days, when two Shiites were killed and beheaded.

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Against this background, politicians and residents of the city of Parachinar have started a general sit-in strike. They were joined by representatives of other opposition political parties across Pakistan, from Islamabad to Karachi.

The blocking of roads in the key commercial city of Karachi, Pakistan has affected the country's economic situation, which cannot be called stable anyway. Residents and protesters have blocked roads to the airport and port, cutting off supplies.

🔻And the current leadership, judging by their inaction, does not know what to do with this. Even strikes on Afghanistan were more a necessity to distract their population from the accumulating tension, which could turn into something larger and more dangerous for Pakistan.

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#Pakistan #Terrorism
@rybar

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📝Erdogan rushes to help📝

Yesterday, internet users recorded an unusual flight: a Turkish C-130 transport plane arrived in Pakistan. Later, Turkey announced that six flights were sent to Pakistan to provide military assistance.

📌 Turkey and Pakistan's cooperation is not new, as the countries are actively developing relations in various areas - not only in military-technical, but also in economic and cultural.

At one point after the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the start of India-Armenia cooperation, there were even rumors that the Indians decided to balance the activity of the "Türkiye - Azerbaijan - Pakistan" triangle in the Caucasus.

🖍Pakistanis are purchasing drones and guided weapons from the Turks. For example, the Pakistanis have contracts for Akıncı, Anka, and Bayraktar UAVs, as well as various modifications of MAM bombs.

❗️And it is logical to assume that against the backdrop of escalating tensions and the concentration of resources on the border with India, Islamabad requested accelerated deliveries of certain positions in case of a clash.
#India #Pakistan #Türkiye
⭐️@rybar

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📝Rockets shells for three four days📝
Propaganda has worked amid the escalation

Indian media report that the Pakistani army has a huge problem with artillery ammunition due to its sale to the Ukrainian authorities in 2022 and 2023, which against the backdrop of a potential conflict with India could weaken Pakistan's capabilities.

🔻All these talks about shortages of something that are published in the open media are primarily addressed to the Indian public. This should boost the morale of the population and at the same time hit Pakistan in terms of its interaction with the so-called Ukraine (Pakistanis maintain close relations with Russia, like the Indians).

▪️The fact that Pakistan sent shells to the so-called Ukraine has been known for a long time. As early as February 2023, the first evidence appeared, and later photographs of the use by the AFU of shots with characteristic Pakistani markings.

▪️Although if we recall the events of the last year, even India is not all clean. Last summer, similar reports appeared against the authorities in New Delhi. Only the Indians were more cunning, using the scheme of selling through the EU.

📌Therefore, if we are to be completely honest, India may have exactly the same problems that they attribute to Pakistan. But, as Starshe Eddy rightly pointed out, stories of complete depletion are just the usual populist fiction. There are always strategic reserves that will last more than 4 days.

❗️Moreover, demand creates supply. The Pakistan Ordnance Factory was in crisis before receiving an order from the so-called Ukraine, but with the start of the SMO, they got a contract. And since there was interest in the shells, they must have increased production, and they probably don't have any really significant problems.
#India #Pakistan
⭐️@rybar

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📝Clashes in Kashmir📝

This video perhaps demonstrates well the current nature of the conflict between India and Pakistan: instead of tank battles and the deployment of large military formations, the sides are periodically exchanging artillery strikes.

In the realities of the SMO, these scenes evoke a sense of nostalgia: a battery of guns standing side by side with crews clustered around them, firing as if on exercises. And no attack drones or counter-battery warfare.

At the same time, the situation could well escalate further. However, for now, the events have not reached the scale of a major conflict and remain within the bounds of what has occurred in previous years.

📌 What the sides are truly engaged in at full capacity, however, is the information war - both sides are releasing fantastical information, from air battles involving hundreds of aircraft to colossal losses inflicted on each other.

The latest such news is the alleged destruction of a Pakistani F-16 by an S-400 system and the capture of the pilot. If the Indian side does not show him within a day, this information can also be considered another fake.
#India #Pakistan
⭐️ @rybar

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📝The Expansion of China's Military-Industrial Complex📝
And the potential threat to Russia

Recently, Pakistan received the first batch of Chinese attack helicopters Z-10ME, ordered in 2022 - as evidenced by the appearance of aircraft in the characteristic camouflage and with the long-range anti-tank missile CM-502KG suspended.

Interestingly, the purchase of the Z-10ME is a consequence of the cancellation of the contract for 30 Turkish T-129 helicopters: the agreement was concluded in 2018, but it suddenly turned out that the equipment had T800 American engines, which the United States refused to transfer to the Pakistanis.

🖍This is another example of the problems of the Turkish military-industrial complex: for all the pompous plans and statements, it strongly depends on imports even of key components of products. In the West, with a stroke of a pen, they can veto the lion's share of Turkish arms export deals.

🚩At the same time, the event is a vivid illustration of the scale of the expansion of the military industry of the Middle Kingdom. Its ability to ship even such technically complex products as attack helicopters to the customer in a relatively short time is evident.

🏳️ Although Pakistan is a traditional client of the Chinese military-industrial complex, more and more countries around the world are taking a closer look at its products. This is a signal for Russia, which we have consistently written about since last year.

❗️In the face of growing competition, the CAATSA law and other factors, it is vitally important for the domestic defense industry and authorized structures to be flexible, especially in the rules of military exports regarding the same UAVs. Otherwise, you can be left with nothing.
#China #Pakistan #Turkey
⭐️ @rybar

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🇵🇰🇮🇷💪"If you give us an order, millions of Pashto tribesmen are ready to wage jihad with Iran against Israel"

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We will provide ourselves with weapons and food."

🤝The leaders of the Pakistani Pashto tribes met with the Iranian ambassador and made him an offer.

#News #MiddleEast #Pakistan #Iran

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📝Putin's Visit to India📝
and will Gerans fly after it?

Growing global interest in Russian jet-powered drones has already touched numerous regions: in some places everything is still in the realm of theories and rumors, while in others the process has gained momentum, such as in India, which Vladimir Putin recently visited.

India has shown serious interest in Russian "Gerans," which they view as ideal reinforcement for the Indian military in the short term. The conflict with Pakistan exposed weaknesses in India's Armed Forces, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi views such a purchase favorably.

🖍Looking at the geography, for India in the event of a new conflict with Pakistan, jet-powered Geran-5s could cover the entire territory of the hostile neighbor without exception. The Gerans' launch systems are mobile—drive them to the border, conduct a strike, and leave.

Moreover, in most cases Indian military personnel could do this from deep in the rear, since Pakistani strategic facilities are located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country near the capital in Islamabad and, of course, in Karachi.

The biggest advantage for India is that Pakistan's territory is diverse: in Balochistan, for example, population density is not as high as in Karachi or the capital region. Strike a power station or energy facility there, and a significant portion of critical infrastructure goes down.

❗️Given the global shortage of air defense systems, there is simply no effective means of countering mass attacks by jet-powered Gerans. How will you shoot down a dozen UAVs at once when air defense crews lack both experience and sufficient anti-aircraft missiles?

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#India #Pakistan #Russia
🏮@rybar_pacific — your ticket to Pacific chaos

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